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June 10-14 Severe/Flooding Wx - Obs, Radar, Warnings, Dmg. rpts


wxmeddler

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Sick puppies all. Let's hope it speeds up and doesn't have much of a chance to screw things up for the weekend. It is Father's Fay. Do any of you have a soul?

Whatever each of us wishes won't have an impact on the outcome. I like exciting weather - if it ends up being nothing so be it but if we end up getting excitement I'll hope nobody gets hurt and I'll enjoy it/deal with the consequences.

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it's interesting a mode like the nam has almost all the convection north of the good cape out west tomorrow. think near chi might get a good blast but wonder if the higher end risk will bust out there generally.

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it's interesting a mode like the nam has almost all the convection north of the good cape out west tomorrow. think near chi might get a good blast but wonder if the higher end risk will bust out there generally.

Nam misplace precip, when does that happen?
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Nam misplace precip, when does that happen?

don't think it's just the NAM. i mean, there would be some warm sector activity as well but as time goes a lot of the heavy stuff looks like banding in a winter storm to the north of the low.

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don't think it's just the NAM. i mean, there would be some warm sector activity as well but as time goes a lot of the heavy stuff looks like banding in a winter storm to the north of the low.

 

Most of the high res guidance has some sort of large MCS (in some cases bowing quite strongly) trekking through the GL region tomorrow.

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Most of the high res guidance has some sort of large MCS (in some cases bowing quite strongly) trekking through the GL region tomorrow.

i've seen that.. im sure there will be something. it just sorta seems like the best cape isn't always co-located with the highest precip/reflectivity/etc. at a certain pt in the ohio valley area it starts to become confusing with the low fairly strongly deepening.. that's not typical of a mcs/derecho.

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The heaviest rain probably would be north of us but that doesn't preclude us getting severe as it's better to have more scattered activity to get a supercell.  If there is a derecho,  they also move like bats out of Hades and do like strong instability.  I'd feel better about a derecho if the flow was little more wnwly but admit I'm more of a precip guy than a severe expert. 

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The heaviest rain probably would be north of us but that doesn't preclude us getting severe as it's better to have more scattered activity to get a supercell. If there is a derecho, they also move like bats out of Hades and do like strong instability. I'd feel better about a derecho if the flow was little more wnwly but admit I'm more of a precip guy than a severe expert.

I wasn't implying anything about here really. More that I think some particularly on Twitter etc are looking at the high QPF and assuming that's all 'derecho' or something. Think we are more likely in a case where the lee trough or cold front fires up storms fairly locally given the setup. Not sure I even see us getting hit with an MCS at this pt tho tomorrow might bring something in from the NW seperate from the larger event west.
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Well the setup is rather different, for one, this potential event features a much more organized shortwave trough.

 

Well every setup is different. I was just saying that until whatever this thing the model is showing forms tonight into tomorrow it will be hard to speculate. 

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Well if the front came charging into today's air mass I don't think it would be much, winds mixing things up good and stabilize and looks like dews above the surface have lowered a lot.  But if it comes charging into an air mass like Monday's then it would be a general area wide pounding.

So which will it be?

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