needbiggerboat Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'm chasing on Thursday.... ....Makers Mark followed by Stella Artois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'm chasing on Thursday.... ....Makers Mark followed by Stella Artois Good strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 i cant wait till the nam caves to the euro.. hopefully it's soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 i cant wait till the nam caves to the euro.. hopefully it's soon I am hoping this run at least slows it down some... at least shows some movement toward the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 i cant wait till the nam caves to the euro.. hopefully it's soon Wish it would get folded up and placed into the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'm telling you guys - Eskimo Joe has been super anti-excitement lately Id be a negative person too if I had to work with OEM on a daily basis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Just took a look at this. Man look at the convective gust potential...67kts. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KDCA.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Sick puppies all. Let's hope it speeds up and doesn't have much of a chance to screw things up for the weekend. It is Father's Fay. Do any of you have a soul? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 So when does the derecho hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Sick puppies all. Let's hope it speeds up and doesn't have much of a chance to screw things up for the weekend. It is Father's Fay. Do any of you have a soul? Whatever each of us wishes won't have an impact on the outcome. I like exciting weather - if it ends up being nothing so be it but if we end up getting excitement I'll hope nobody gets hurt and I'll enjoy it/deal with the consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 NAM is a bit slower this run. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 12Z 18Z That's a nice vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 SCP at 45 hrs. SCP at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Hope it slows down another 2-4 hours and low goes right over UNV. I been waiting for a day like this in a long time. Come on severe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 it's interesting a mode like the nam has almost all the convection north of the good cape out west tomorrow. think near chi might get a good blast but wonder if the higher end risk will bust out there generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 it's interesting a mode like the nam has almost all the convection north of the good cape out west tomorrow. think near chi might get a good blast but wonder if the higher end risk will bust out there generally.Nam misplace precip, when does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Nam misplace precip, when does that happen? don't think it's just the NAM. i mean, there would be some warm sector activity as well but as time goes a lot of the heavy stuff looks like banding in a winter storm to the north of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 don't think it's just the NAM. i mean, there would be some warm sector activity as well but as time goes a lot of the heavy stuff looks like banding in a winter storm to the north of the low. Most of the high res guidance has some sort of large MCS (in some cases bowing quite strongly) trekking through the GL region tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Most of the high res guidance has some sort of large MCS (in some cases bowing quite strongly) trekking through the GL region tomorrow. i've seen that.. im sure there will be something. it just sorta seems like the best cape isn't always co-located with the highest precip/reflectivity/etc. at a certain pt in the ohio valley area it starts to become confusing with the low fairly strongly deepening.. that's not typical of a mcs/derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The heaviest rain probably would be north of us but that doesn't preclude us getting severe as it's better to have more scattered activity to get a supercell. If there is a derecho, they also move like bats out of Hades and do like strong instability. I'd feel better about a derecho if the flow was little more wnwly but admit I'm more of a precip guy than a severe expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Lets not forget this... turned into this... So anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The heaviest rain probably would be north of us but that doesn't preclude us getting severe as it's better to have more scattered activity to get a supercell. If there is a derecho, they also move like bats out of Hades and do like strong instability. I'd feel better about a derecho if the flow was little more wnwly but admit I'm more of a precip guy than a severe expert.I wasn't implying anything about here really. More that I think some particularly on Twitter etc are looking at the high QPF and assuming that's all 'derecho' or something. Think we are more likely in a case where the lee trough or cold front fires up storms fairly locally given the setup. Not sure I even see us getting hit with an MCS at this pt tho tomorrow might bring something in from the NW seperate from the larger event west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 SPC must be bored today, because I have never seen so many MCD's be issued for watch unlikeliness lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Lets not forget this... turned into this... So anything can happen. Well the setup is rather different, for one, this potential event features a much more organized shortwave trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Well the setup is rather different, for one, this potential event features a much more organized shortwave trough. Well every setup is different. I was just saying that until whatever this thing the model is showing forms tonight into tomorrow it will be hard to speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 GFS a little slower too with the low. Gooooooooooooo EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 GFS a little slower too with the low. Gooooooooooooo EURO! Sooo wedge on the mall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Nasty looking wind profile from Southern DE on the 18z GFS at 51 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Nasty looking wind profile from Southern DE on the 18z GFS at 51 hrs. GFS has clearing and +20c 850s over the southern 2/3rds of Virginia and the Del Marva Thursday. That could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Well if the front came charging into today's air mass I don't think it would be much, winds mixing things up good and stabilize and looks like dews above the surface have lowered a lot. But if it comes charging into an air mass like Monday's then it would be a general area wide pounding. So which will it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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