Ellinwood Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 With regards to slight v mod v high risk threats, is the criteria for a mod threat in kansas different than one in PA, for example? Nope. Just based on the different percentages and hatched areas (EDIT: which are a function of severe storm coverage only): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'm rooting for Low or no risk, but how would population density play into the determination by SPC? Kansas is any empty square compared to this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'm rooting for Low or no risk, but how would population density play into the determination by SPC? Kansas is any empty square compared to this region. See my previous post (the EDIT part). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Wow bullish to say the least. Bullish for us or for the MOD risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Bullish for us or for the MOD risk? i dont think our main risk from tomorrow is from the "derecho" but rather additional stuff forming in the warm frontal zone. the euro is still much slower with the low.. has a 996 over HGR at 0z Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 euro goes from ~1000mb at 18z near SW PA to ~992mb at 6z in SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 euro goes from ~1000mb at 18z near SW PA to ~992mb at 6z in SE PA. La La Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 torcon of 4 for thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 euro goes from ~1000mb at 18z near SW PA to ~992mb at 6z in SE PA. is slower better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 is slower better? yeah probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 the debate about calling for a derecho or not is now as annoying as the original calls for a derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Seems like the NAM and GFS wouldn't be very good timing for severe, at least back this way. Am I reading that right? I hope that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 torcon of 4 for thurs Is the mehcon inversely proportional to the torcon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Why was the day 3 outlook so far SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yeah probably probably? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Seems like the NAM and GFS wouldn't be very good timing for severe, at least back this way. Am I reading that right? I hope that's the case. I think so... NAM looks noonish here... GFS 2-3pm... EURO would be more toward evening... so take a few hrs off for you guys in I-81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 the debate about calling for a derecho or not is now as annoying as the original calls for a derecho I'm gonna write an article about it and put it on USTor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Why was the day 3 outlook so far SE? American models are quicker than the globals with the der... MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 probably?NAM and GFS are probably passable as is but it's on the early side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 NAM and GFS are probably passable as is but it's on the early side. GFS looks like June 08 time period (THE TIME PERIOD, NOT STRENGTH) of 2-3 PM... which should be fine for us but it is slightly early... NAM blows for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 No derecho here with a high of 76. mid 90s in ohio could do it though. Not chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 American models are quicker than the globals with the der... MCS GFS and NAM still have supercell composites around 75% all the way back to HGR at 15Z and still in DCA and BWI at 18Z. Typically systems slow down so hopefully this one does too by a few hours. Either way I am chasing Thursday into SE PA or NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 At least the weenie suicides will be fun to watch. Really don't see how this comes together with such meager surface instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 GFS looks like June 08 time period (THE TIME PERIOD, NOT STRENGTH) of 2-3 PM... which should be fine for us but it is slightly early... NAM blows for us It might be best to lean toward the models which are closer on timing but it's hard to think the Euro is way off so I wouldn't be surprised if things trend toward it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 At least the weenie suicides will be fun to watch. Really don't see how this comes together with such meager surface instability. ? the models get ~2000 CAPE into at least n va tomorrow and ~3000 CAPE into the area on thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I think so... NAM looks noonish here... GFS 2-3pm... EURO would be more toward evening... so take a few hrs off for you guys in I-81 corridor That's good news as far as I'm concerned, but I guess 48-60 hours out in model land is still a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 ? the models get ~2000 CAPE into at least n va tomorrow and ~3000 CAPE into the area on thurs. Not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 At least the weenie suicides will be fun to watch. Really don't see how this comes together with such meager surface instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 For archive purposes LWX afternoon AFD .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FORMULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING.ON WED AND WED NGT...THE CWA WILL BE SITUATED IN SRN PERIPHERY OFSTRONG MID-LVL WESTERLIES WHILE A NRN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES INTOTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SRNCONUS. AT THE SFC...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DEVELOP BY WED MRNG OVERPA AND SAG SWD NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE WED AFTN. THE BOUNDARYWILL STALL OVER THE AREA WED NGT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREADURING THE DAY WED AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE OH VLY. LLVLCONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY PRODUCE LGT SHOWERS OVER THEMTS IN THE MRNG. SPC HAS PLACED ENTIRE CWA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVRSTORMS ON WED. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMT OFDESTABILIZATION THOUGH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL RESIDE IN THEWARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL VA. STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP OVERTHE APPALACHIANS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS AND SPREAD EWD LATEIN THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL THAT AN MCS DEVELOPS OVERTHE MIDWEST/OH VLY BEFORE CROSSING THE MTS WED NGT. TIMING OFTHAT IS UNCERTAIN BUT IF THE POTENTIAL MCS MOVES INTO THE CWAEARLIER IN THE NGT...THEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY WOULD BE AVAILABLETO MAINTAIN STRONG TO SVR STORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ANDFLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.ON THU...MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHAND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST WED NGT BEFORE MOVING THRUMID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ANDASSOCIATED LOPRES WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK NWD INTO PAAS A WARM FRONT. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THISSYSTEM. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURSAHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT A FASTER SOLUTION WOULD THEORETICALLYMEAN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND LESS OPPORTUNITY FORDAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THU MRNG WILLBE ACROSS THE S/E PART OF THE CWA. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED EAST OF THEBLUE RIDGE FOR A SLGT RISK WITH THE HIGHEST RISK /30 PERCENT/ OVERSRN MD. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES...THEREIS A CONCERN FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR WX EVENT THU AFTN IF SUFFICIENTHEATING OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'm telling you guys - Eskimo Joe has been super anti-excitement lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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