mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 12Z GFS sounding for KBWI at 18z THUR SKT_GFS__KBWI12zGFSfor18zTHUR.png 4500 of cape is exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 everyone locally saying not to hype is helping the odds of a derecho. Wooohooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 tomorrow sculpted northwest flow supercells.. thursday grinding wedges. #pretendingweliveintheplains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yoda's going to be wrong about tomorrow. they might not slight us till tomorrow but it will happen. Want to bet? I could see something issued on the 20z for us for overnight WED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 SquallOfDoom a derecho out west doesn't necessarily mean much for us.. those guys get like 2 a year. Though d2 from the SPC is stating the potential exists for a derecho event from northern IL through upper WV. That would be similar to last years set-up should it come to fruition */weenie* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 How does it compare to the June 2008 setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 derecho is just a fun word for the media.... derecho should really only be used in a "nowcasting" framework -- it's pretty hard to predict whether a modeled MCS (even one modeled with a relative amount of certainty) will reach the necessary thresholds for classification as a derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Though d2 from the SPC is stating the potential exists for a derecho event from northern IL through upper WV. That would be similar to last years set-up should it come to fruition */weenie*It could happen. I wouldn't say either way still. No reason people can't highlight the risk locally without mentioning the word. Then again it's just a word. But whatever happens tomorrow would want to come in late (and might be seperate) and run into a lower CAPE environment than last yr at least.. Even with that crazy environment ppl still thought the apps would finish it off. Both parts have sort of high ceilings but are also kind of conditional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 How does it compare to the June 2008 setup? Ian wrote a great article following it: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/06/june_4_2008_severe_weather_out_1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 How does it compare to the June 2008 setup? it's definitely a different setup -- but see for yourself... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008/us0604.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 SREF members says meh for tornado threat Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 How does it compare to the June 2008 setup? it won't be as hot. That's all i got. Hey, look! that rhymed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 it won't be as hot. That's all i got. Hey, look! that rhymed I found the thread from Eastern for it http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/165777-1-year-ago-june-4-2008-historic-mid-atlantic-severe-weather-outbreak/ Morning of 6/4 starts around page 6/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 SREF members says meh for tornado threat Thursday. srefbks.JPG SREF still pretty fast with the low. Guess the whole American suite is. Plus main risk prob near the warm front tho I think winds would end up more backed with a strong low to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 derecho is just a fun word for the media.... derecho should really only be used in a "nowcasting" framework -- it's pretty hard to predict whether a modeled MCS (even one modeled with a relative amount of certainty) will reach the necessary thresholds for classification as a derecho A year ago the media still thought a derecho was something on the menu at taco bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I only care about hodorgraphs We're infinitely better at being pretend Oklahomans than the other East Coast regional forums. Our hodograph per page ratio is off the charts compared to them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I found the thread from Eastern for it http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/165777-1-year-ago-june-4-2008-historic-mid-atlantic-severe-weather-outbreak/ Morning of 6/4 starts around page 6/7 Thanks for that... great read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Thanks for that... great read its a shame a lot of the images are not the correct ones... but the freaking out by some of you all was great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yoda's going to be wrong about tomorrow. they might not slight us till tomorrow but it will happen. I hate you ..MID ATLANTIC REGION HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK EWD AS SWLY WINDS WILL LIKELY ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THIS REGION WITH DIABATIC HEATING SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS AREA WILL EXIST ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR. OTHER STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER OH VALLEY MAY SURVIVE AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Ian loses sorry, Yoda you suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Ian loses Caught it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 hopefully it trends better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Caught it too many weenies refreshing the damn site and it locked up on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 #winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 weenies complaining about weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 #winning High risk Thursday or bust. I'm counting on you to bring your plains magic back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 hopefully it trends better for us Wow bullish to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 High risk Thursday or bust. I'm counting on you to bring your plains magic back. We didn't get one high risk while we were out there, the max we can hope for is a mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The Interaction of Simulated Squall Lines with Idealized Mountain RidgesJeffrey Frame and Paul MarkowskiABSTRACTNumerical simulations of squall lines traversing sinusoidal mountain ridges are performed using the Advanced Regional Prediction System cloud-resolving model. Precipitation and updraft strength are enhanced through orographic ascent as a squall line approaches a ridge. The simulated squall line then weakens as it descends the ridge because some of the cold pool is blocked by the terrain, resulting in less lift along the gust front and weaker convective cells. The flow within the cold pool accelerates slightly and the depth of the cold air decreases owing to upstream blocking, transitioning the flow in the cold pool head from subcritical to supercritical, then back to subcritical at the bottom of the ridge. A hydraulic jump forms when the flow transitions the second time, enabling the development of a new convective line downwind of the mountain. These new updrafts grow and eventually replace the older updrafts that weakened during descent. This process results in the discrete propagation of a squall line just downstream of a ridge, resulting in the formation of rain shadows downstream from topographic features. Discrete propagation only occurs if a ridge is of sufficient height, however. This replacement process repeats itself if a squall line encounters multiple ridges. The risk of damaging winds from a squall line is greater on the lee side of ridges and on the top of high ridges. These terrain-forced intensity fluctuations increase with mountain height, because the higher terrain permits even less cold air to flow over it. A wider ridge results in a more gradual orographic enhancement and downslope-induced weakening.http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?reques...175%2FMWR3157.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 With regards to slight v mod v high risk threats, is the criteria for a mod threat in kansas different than one in PA, for example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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