Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Yeah it's ridiculous. NAM has it far enough north to put us in the SWRLY LLJ. GFS is still alarming but probably the best dynamics with be closer to the VA/NC border. this run probably tagets southeast to south central pa maybe up toward nyc, but it has pretty great soundings for the range and the region. big looping hodos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Going off of the sounding posted above, some of the parameters on the NAM are fairly concerning. Still a ways away but the presence of the 992mb surface low on multiple models definitely adds to the intrigue. We can see the NAM hinting at some elevated supercell/tornadic potential near the warm front during the afternoon on Thursday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 this goes with the second sounding and is just north of nyc on 0z nam yowza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 this run probably tagets southeast to south central pa maybe up toward nyc, but it has pretty great soundings for the range and the region. big looping hodos. i think nyc is too far north on this run as the wf never really gets there at the surface.there is a nice mucape axis that gets pretty far north so I'm sure the severe threat would extend there but the surface based threat and big time threat for rotation and sfc wind damage would probably not extend much farther n than trenton. you can see the sfc low redeveloping near or just s of nyc's latitude here: http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/NE/namNE_sfc_temp_069.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 i think nyc is too far north on this run as the wf never really gets there at the surface.there is a nice mucape axis that gets pretty far north so I'm sure the severe threat would extend there but the surface based threat and big time threat for rotation and sfc wind damage would probably not extend much farther n than trenton. you can see the sfc low redeveloping near or just s of nyc's latitude here: http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/NE/namNE_sfc_temp_069.gif yeah you might be right.. it looked north of my initial "target" but the soundings got better up there. it is close on this run for a while i think but prob south as you note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 this run probably tagets southeast to south central pa maybe up toward nyc, but it has pretty great soundings for the range and the region. big looping hodos. NAM_218_2013061100_F66_40.0000N_75.5000W.png NAM_218_2013061100_F69_41.0000N_74.0000W.png NYC could have a temp inversion and SE wind out of that setup even if the NAM doesn't show it. Sorry I was too lazy to look at the exact soundings though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Now *this* has me interested. Too bad it's the NAM though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Now *this* has me interested. Too bad it's the NAM though GFS has somewhat of the same idea... lending some credence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 GFS is pretty much the same it might even be farther north with the surface based instability and warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 it might even be farther north with the surface based instability and warm front. I dont know... NAM had 992 in N PA... GFS likes 1000 in south central PA... gonna be interesting on where the WF is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 gfs has some activity late wed too.. slight risk wed/mod on thur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I think where I live and went today all were fortunate. Tropical downpours then go partly sunny for 15 minutes and stew that up all afternoon and you usually get popped hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 gfs has some activity late wed too.. slight risk wed/mod on thur? I could see a 30 being put up for our area on Day 3 OTLK tomorrow morning... I am not totally sold on Wed for us, maybe west of I-81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 gfs has some activity late wed too.. slight risk wed/mod on thur? Skew-T for GFS has 4000+ CAPE and 3-4 EHI and a lapse rate of 7.5-8.5. If the models hold on track tomorrow nights numbers will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Skew-T for GFS has 4000+ CAPE and 3-4 EHI and a lapse rate of 7.5-8.5. If the models hold on track tomorrow nights numbers will be interesting. ML or LL? I am gathering LL... and what location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 ML or LL? I am gathering LL... and what location? On the Skew-T page it says 0-1.5km and it was a sample of various locations DCA, BWI and PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Skew-T for GFS has 4000+ CAPE and 3-4 EHI and a lapse rate of 7.5-8.5. If the models hold on track tomorrow nights numbers will be interesting. Agreed, the looped hodographs are certainly impressive, and in an event where lapse rates are modeled to be impressive, the chips are on the table for a potential noteworthy event. The distance from the warm front is important, but if a sub 1000mb low is headed INVOF the KUNV area, then the severe potential is there. Those talking derecho definitely are just jumping more on the public hype train, as the airmass isn't nearly as impressive as the 6/29/12 event. Nevertheless, I like the backing winds closer to the warm front, and the impressive parameters elsewhere. Multiple modes of severe weather could be possible, and a legitimate trigger lies nearby. Stick around the next few days, this one has some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 On the Skew-T page it says 0-1.5km and it was a sample of various locations DCA, BWI and PHL. Okies... and that is Low-Level Lapse Rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Okies... and that is Low-Level Lapse Rate Figured since you can't really get lower than 0km. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 For some giggles... I decided to look at the UKIE/GGEM for Thursday to see what they did with the low.... UKIE decides to roll a 997 L right through SE PA (72 hrs) from NW PA (60 hrs) as the day progresses GGEM says screw that... I want a 1003 L in N WV at 66 to a 999 L right over DC at 72 This would give some credence to the GFS... and suggest to me the NAM may be a bit too far north in its placement of the SLP... but the strength looks pretty even on all 4 models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Well, that training rainstorm was worth a flooded basement. Glad it poured buckets for 45 minutes straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 For some giggles... I decided to look at the UKIE/GGEM for Thursday to see what they did with the low.... UKIE decides to roll a 997 L right through SE PA (72 hrs) from NW PA (60 hrs) as the day progresses GGEM says screw that... I want a 1003 L in N WV at 66 to a 999 L right over DC at 72 This would give some credence to the GFS... and suggest to me the NAM may be a bit too far north in its placement of the SLP... but the strength looks pretty even on all 4 models Sucks the NAM is supposed to be our best model for convective type situations and it just sucks in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Sucks the NAM is supposed to be our best model for convective type situations and it just sucks in general. Well the NAM could be right.... I was just taking a peek at the GGEM/UKIE to see what they did with the low and at what strength as I await the new Day 2 before bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Well the NAM could be right.... I was just taking a peek at the GGEM/UKIE to see what they did with the low and at what strength as I await the new Day 2 before bed Maybe but, I doubt it. Ya that is what I am waiting for too. Sadly I will probably then stay up for day 3 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 well no SLGT risk for us Day 2... but Day 2 is 30 shaded in a large area from W PA back to W IL However, does mention that one or more bowing MCSs may be moving through the area and potential exists for widespread damaging winds as well as a potentially significant/widespread severe weather day in the 30 shaded region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 well no SLGT risk for us Day 2... but Day 2 is 30 shaded in a large area from W PA back to W IL Probably by day 1. Still too uncertain on how that will evolve SE Wednesday Eve. But looks like a moderate risk for the Ohio valley upcoming by afternoon day 2 or when day 2 comes day 1. Strong wording. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR DAY 2/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RISK AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Day 3 should be an interesting look... I am predicting a 30% will prob be on there somewhere near our area... and off to bed I go... interesting next few days around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Euro takes a 996ish from UNV to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM THIS PERIOD..FLANKED BY A SLOWLY MOVING WRN U.S. TROUGH AND A MORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AHEAD OF THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM...WHILE A COLD FRONT -- TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE PA VICINITY -- SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING AND TRAILS WWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ...ERN MD/DE/ERN VA/NC VICINITY... WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/FRONT PROGGED TO BE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE MORNING...SOME QUESTIONS EXIST AS TO HOW FAR W AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR SO AS TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ATTM HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY...AS HEATING YIELDS MODERATE DESTABILIZATION FROM CENTRAL VA/W CENTRAL NC EWD. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING/FAST-MOVING LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- WITH MOTION AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS AIDED BY 50-PLS KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WITH THE FAST MOTION ANTICIPATED AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION...30% PROBABILITY IS BEING INTRODUCED ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NC AND ERN VA INTO THE DELMARVA REGION -- WHERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR...ALONG WITH HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY -- WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY AROUND 21Z AND MOVE OFFSHORE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THREAT WILL LINGER LONGEST ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SW...FROM SRN PORTIONS OF NC WWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 1.78" for latest round of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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