IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Let's wait for the event to conclude before making baseless statements like this. The NAM performs very well in convective summertime events. It's had a different solution on every run for the past three days. I know some will try to hug it in this situation because it shows the least amount of rain for the area, but we all know its track record. Upton obviously showed everyone what it thought of the 12z NAM by almost doubling its forcast right after it came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 huh? The GFS gives LI 1.7" in less than 6 hours tomorrow morning There could be good amounts of rain if the squall line crosses this area, but if the low and warm front cross very near us, the main body of rain will likely be north of us. It would probably be more of a showery rain here and then the main severe threat south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Right or wrong, the NAM presents an outcome that is certainly possible especially if there is convection in the midatlantic tonight that "robs" the developing coastal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 9z SREF has 2"-3" of rain, from NYC line north. Yeah I don't know how much skill they have in this situation. It's unusual to see it that much wetter than the NAM and a red flag since its low resolution tyically undercuts QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Right or wrong, the NAM presents an outcome that is certainly possible especially if there is convection in the midatlantic tonight that "robs" the developing coastal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think there is a legitimate threat for rotation along the warm front tomorrow. I expect there to be a greater wind damage threat to the south across the Mid-Atlantic states...and the wind damage/tornado threat there could be quite widespread. But along the warm front in Central NJ specifically...I think we could see a localized tornado threat. The high resolution models have shown the potential for legitimate updrafts along the warm front for several runs in a row now. That updraft would be along a warm front with locally favorable low level shear and riding along the periphery of good instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Some of the Mets in the NE forum are discussing this potential...not saying it's right, it's something to consider... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Also...here is our latest thinking and public briefing pdf file. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/06/12/myriad-of-threats-expected-from-midweek-storm/ http://www.nymetroweather.com/June12Brief.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Also...here is our latest thinking and public briefing pdf file. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/06/12/myriad-of-threats-expected-from-midweek-storm/ http://www.nymetroweather.com/June12Brief.pdf Where do you think the greatest threat for tornadoes exist within the next 24-36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Some of the Mets in the NE forum are discussing this potential...not saying it's right, it's something to consider... Yes, but plenty of them are also discussing why they think the main precip shield will be more like 50-70 miles to the north of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Where do you think the greatest threat for tornadoes exist within the next 24-36 hours? In an area from near or just north of DCA through South/Southeast PA and into Southwest NJ. That threat may lift northward along the warm front into Central NJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Yes, but plenty of them are also discussing why they think the main precip shield will be more like 50-70 miles to the north of the low track.So do you think northern NJ misses out on most of the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 So do you think northern NJ misses out on most of the precip? No, I think the warm front hangs south of Long Island for most of the day with the heaviest rain just to the north of that. From about I-80 north with the heaviest rains up into CT. I think anyone from I-95 north and west is looking at an easy 2-3"+. NWS and HPC would agree. A flood watch calling for 3.5-4.5" of rain widespread is no joke, especially with saturated grounds and above normal river heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 9z SREF has 2"-3" of rain, from NYC line north. Similar to the 4km which may be bumping the warm front and overrunning about 30 miles too far north. So I would slide the 4km rain shield about 30 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 No, I think the warm front hangs south of Long Island for most of the day with the heaviest rain just to the north of that. From about I-80 north with the heaviest rains up into CT. I think anyone from I-95 north and west is looking at an easy 2-3"+. NWS and HPC would agree. A flood watch calling for 3.5-4.5" of rain widespread is no joke, especially with saturated grounds and above normal river heights.So why do so many models keep coming in with solutions which displace the precip shield well to the north of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 The rest of the 12z guidance will be telling. The NAM is clearly having issues resolving the storm complex coming from the Mid-west to the Mid-Atlantic tonight. It's shown a different solution on nearly every run. Maybe some convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 12z NAM is disjointed it's wind fields and thermal gradients, between the surface and aloft. That;s why shows more rainfall to north of NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 So why do so many models keep coming in with solutions which displace the precip shield well to the north of the low? The mid-level dynamics really get cranking with this storm, so you'll get precip further NW than you would think. It's all about where the warm front ends up. Earlier models had the warm front staying well to our south but the trend has been to get it further north as time goes on, putting our area on the edge of the severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The rest of the 12z guidance will be telling. The NAM is clearly having issues resolving the storm complex coming from the Mid-west to the Mid-Atlantic tonight. It's shown a different solution on nearly every run. Maybe some convective feedback issues.What times do the GFS/GGEM/Euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 What times do the GFS/GGEM/Euro come out? GFS will come out shortly. The GGEM is more like 12:30-1 and the Euro is 2:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 SPC confirms high risk upgrade for Day 1 over Ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wtf @ GFS Much weaker at all levels, precip field disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The RGEM has a max near 3" over the Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 STORM CANCEL!!! No, just kidding on that. But the GFS and the NAM are polar opposites in what they show. GGEM/Euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The RGEM has a max near 3" over the Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wtf @ GFS Much weaker at all levels, precip field disorganized. Can't help but wonder if we're having some feedback issues with the 12z suite. It completely sh*t the bed. So the low passes near BWI which is really far south. We get the heavy rain. It's only at 1000mb. By hr 36 it's stalled. At hr 39 it redevelops and heads east. It makes no sense whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow what a drastic change on the GFS 24 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow a a drastic change on the GFS 24 hours out... Not saying it has to be wrong, but I think likely wrong is the best way to put the 12z GFS. It tracks the low from DC to Ocean City, MD and then off the coast due east. No other model shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wonder if the Euro will have some of the feedback issues that the rest of the 12z models are having. Sticking with Euro and previous runs of GFS, if trend continues then the 12z suite might be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not saying it has to be wrong, but I think likely wrong is the best way to put the 12z GFS. It tracks the low from DC to Ocean City, MD and then off the coast due east. No other model shows that. It actually tried to form a secondary low, what the hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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