bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 0z Euro pushes the warm front up to around Sandy Hook now. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECASTDAY 2/THURSDAY -- FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION -- AND LIKELY AN ONGOING MCS -- AREEXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEYREGION INCLUDING MUCH OF PA AND LIKELY WV. WHILE THIS MCS MAY BEDECAYING AND GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CLOUDS ANDCONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT DESTABILIZATION AND EVENTUALLOCATION OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DIGS SEWD AND THE COLDFRONT SHIFTS E OF THE MOUNTAINS...DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATIONCOMBINED WITH STRONG UVV FOCUSED INVOF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLYCONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO REDEVELOP/REINTENSIFY ACROSSTHE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...ANDTHUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGINGWINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. ATTM...THE GREATESTTORNADO RISK APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN A ZONE FROM NRN VA/MD/DE NWDINTO CENTRAL AND ERN PA AND NJ...WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ISFORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND INVOF THE WARM FRONTEXTENDING E FROM THE LOW.FARTHER S INTO VA AND THE CAROLINAS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTOLINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THEAFTERNOON...RESULTING IN HEIGHTENED WITH THREAT...ALONG WITH HAILPOTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.FARTHER SW STILL...ACROSS GA AND THE GULF COAST STATES -- ANDPOSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SRN/ERN TN -- STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ASOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED FASHION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MORE NWLY FLOWALOFT IS FORECAST -- THOUGH STILL CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR SUFFICIENTFOR SEVERE STORMS. BANDS OF SWD/SEWD MOVING CONVECTION CAPABLE OFPRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BYEARLY EVENING...SEVERE THREAT WILL END ACROSS THIS AREA. SOMETHREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND THEN WWD INTOGA/AL/MS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SWD/SEWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 6z GFS has 60kt+ 925mb jet streak over NYC Metro and LI, early Friday morning. If this correct, we could see wind gusts over 50mph, with heavy rains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 6z GFS still has the warmfront more north then the NAM. 2000-3000 CAPE values being depicted from PHL-C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 06z really pounds us with rain. 3-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 6z GFS has 60kt+ 925mb jet streak over NYC Metro and LI, early Friday morning. If this correct, we could see wind gusts over 50mph, with heavy rains: Wind gusts should easily make it to 50 mph in spots and quite possibly higher with such a tight pressure gradient north of the low. We could see more tree damage than usual due to the very saturated soils. The GFS is a little more amped with the LLJ than the NAM so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The strongest winds and gusts will be on the backside of the system which is where the better lapse rates will setup. Wind advisory criteria for sure. GFS is more bullish on the winds too. Actually has High Wind Warning criteria, showing tropical storm force sustained winds over LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 We will have to watch for a late night MCS. The 4k 06z NAM brought back the MCS which looks to pass just to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 KOKX not buying wind threat yet, kinda surprised based on latest model guidance. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THEAREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING WINDS AS THE LOW NEARS ANDTRAVELS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELGUIDANCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WITH THE NAM BEING THE MAINOUTLIER IN BRINGING THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LI. HOWEVER...EVENTHE OTHER MODELS WOULD BRING IN WINDS GUSTING UP TO POSSIBLY 30 TO35 MPH OVER LONG ISLAND...AND BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH OVERNJ...CT...AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINLOOKS TO BE MORE THURSDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WINDS ARE EXPECTEDTO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONGERWINDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THISTIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Surprising Upton didn't hoist a flood watch yet, they are usually on the same page as Mt. Holly, unless they are waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Surprising Upton didn't hoist a flood watch yet, they are usually on the same page as Mt. Holly, unless they are waiting. if NYC gets that much rain this June will become the wettest on record with over half a month left...more fodder for mayor Bloombag... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Mt. Holly going with 2-4" of rain for my zone Thursday A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. High near 69. East wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Low around 55. North wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It's looking like most of us will be in somewhat of a "dead zone" between the really severe activity south of us and the heavy stratiform rain north of us, with the low tracking about directly overhead. I'd say a windy, showery day with the potential for a line of storms later tomorrow will be what most of us experience. This is looking like I-90 gets the heaviest rain. It would probably be wrist-slitting time if this were a winter system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It's looking like most of us will be in somewhat of a "dead zone" between the really severe activity south of us and the heavy stratiform rain north of us, with the low tracking about directly overhead. I'd say a windy, showery day with the potential for a line of storms later tomorrow will be what most of us experience. This is looking like I-90 gets the heaviest rain. It would probably be wrist-slitting time if this were a winter system. huh? The GFS gives LI 1.7" in less than 6 hours tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow this could be quite an active day setting up tomorrow, I'm fairly cautious though as lot of times these events are over hyped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 huh? The GFS gives LI 1.7" in less than 6 hours tomorrow morning The GFS has 3+ inches of rain for the area with strong gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Severe wx. analogs for this event are favoring more southern areas like the mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Severe wx. analogs for this event are favoring more southern areas like the mid Atlantic. I really don't think a good analog exists for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Upton finally issued the anticipated Flood Watch! URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDFLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY1015 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013...FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-122200-/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0002.130613T1200Z-130615T1200Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-1015 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAYMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEASTNEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWINGAREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEWLONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERNNEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERNUNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERNPASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERNSUFFOLK...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERNWESTCHESTER...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER ANDSOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK.* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING* LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ONTHURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONGISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILLMEANDER EAST OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING ONSATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTRAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 3 1/2 TO 4 1/2 INCHES DURING THISTIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL ASURBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAIN STEM RIVERS COULDAPPROACH BANKFULL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BEALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TOFLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODINGDEVELOP.&&$MPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I really don't think a good analog exists for this storm. As I have stated earlier in thread, there is no exact analog for this event primarily because very few storms of extra-tropical origins have been this strong in the warm season, however, the closest ones still don't show any significant severe wx. other than a 5% up to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 9z SREF Sig Tor Ingredients, includes 45% probability over Mid-Atlantic, tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 And now the NAM has come in with barely an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Upton bumping rainfall totals up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 And now the NAM has come in with barely an inch That model is garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 And now the NAM has come in with barely an inch Gotta love the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 And now the NAM has come in with barely an inch Lets see if the GFS and Euro hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Lift is more horizontal along a warm front, so the heaviest rain will be displaced to the north of it rather than closer to it. The NAM might be too extreme in its "relaxing" zone between the severe weather and the heavy rain to the north, but it might have the right idea. North of NYC should still get 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Both the NAM and the GGEM are fast and don't phase any of the energy like the GFS and the Euro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 9z SREF has 2"-3" of rain, from NYC line north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That model is garbage Let's wait for the event to conclude before making baseless statements like this. The NAM performs very well in convective summertime events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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