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Week of June 10th Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Discussion


IsentropicLift

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The 0z Euro pushes the warm front up to around Sandy Hook now.

 

 

 

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...
POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST
DAY 2/THURSDAY -- FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION -- AND LIKELY AN ONGOING MCS -- ARE
EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY
REGION INCLUDING MUCH OF PA AND LIKELY WV. WHILE THIS MCS MAY BE
DECAYING AND GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CLOUDS AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT DESTABILIZATION AND EVENTUAL
LOCATION OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DIGS SEWD AND THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE MOUNTAINS...DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
COMBINED WITH STRONG UVV FOCUSED INVOF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO REDEVELOP/REINTENSIFY ACROSS
THE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
THUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. ATTM...THE GREATEST
TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN A ZONE FROM NRN VA/MD/DE NWD
INTO CENTRAL AND ERN PA AND NJ...WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
FORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND INVOF THE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW.


FARTHER S INTO VA AND THE CAROLINAS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN HEIGHTENED WITH THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

FARTHER SW STILL...ACROSS GA AND THE GULF COAST STATES -- AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SRN/ERN TN -- STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN A
SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED FASHION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MORE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST -- THOUGH STILL CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS. BANDS OF SWD/SEWD MOVING CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
EARLY EVENING...SEVERE THREAT WILL END ACROSS THIS AREA. SOME
THREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND THEN WWD INTO
GA/AL/MS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SWD/SEWD.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The 6z GFS has 60kt+ 925mb jet streak over NYC Metro and LI, early Friday morning. If this correct, we could see wind gusts over 50mph, with heavy rains:

 

20igpoi.jpg

 

Wind gusts should easily make it to 50 mph  in spots and quite possibly higher with such a tight pressure gradient 

north of the low. We could see more tree damage than usual due to the very saturated soils. The GFS is a little more

amped with the LLJ than the NAM so far.

 

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The strongest winds and gusts will be on the backside of the system which is where the better lapse rates will setup. Wind advisory criteria for sure.

 

GFS is more bullish on the winds too. Actually has High Wind Warning criteria, showing tropical storm force sustained winds over LI. 

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KOKX not buying wind threat yet, kinda surprised based on latest model guidance.

 

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING WINDS AS THE LOW NEARS AND
TRAVELS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WITH THE NAM BEING THE MAIN
OUTLIER IN BRINGING THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LI. HOWEVER...EVEN
THE OTHER MODELS WOULD BRING IN WINDS GUSTING UP TO POSSIBLY 30 TO
35 MPH OVER LONG ISLAND...AND BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH OVER
NJ...CT...AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
LOOKS TO BE MORE THURSDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONGER
WINDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

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Surprising Upton didn't hoist a flood watch yet, they are usually on the same page as Mt. Holly, unless they are waiting.

 

StormTotalQPFFcst.png

if NYC gets that much rain this June will become the wettest on record with over half a month left...more fodder for mayor Bloombag...

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Mt. Holly going with 2-4" of rain for my zone

 

Thursday A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. High near 69. East wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

 

Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Low around 55. North wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

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It's looking like most of us will be in somewhat of a "dead zone" between the really severe activity south of us and the heavy stratiform rain north of us, with the low tracking about directly overhead. I'd say a windy, showery day with the potential for a line of storms later tomorrow will be what most of us experience. This is looking like I-90 gets the heaviest rain. It would probably be wrist-slitting time if this were a winter system. :P

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It's looking like most of us will be in somewhat of a "dead zone" between the really severe activity south of us and the heavy stratiform rain north of us, with the low tracking about directly overhead. I'd say a windy, showery day with the potential for a line of storms later tomorrow will be what most of us experience. This is looking like I-90 gets the heaviest rain. It would probably be wrist-slitting time if this were a winter system. :P

huh? The GFS gives LI 1.7" in less than 6 hours tomorrow morning

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Upton finally issued the anticipated Flood Watch!

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1015 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
122200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0002.130613T1200Z-130615T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1015 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW
LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN
NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN
UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN
PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...
KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN
SUFFOLK...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...
SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK.

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
MEANDER EAST OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 3 1/2 TO 4 1/2 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL AS
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAIN STEM RIVERS COULD
APPROACH BANKFULL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP.

&&

$

MPS

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I really don't think a good analog exists for this storm.

 

As I have stated earlier in thread, there is no exact analog for this event primarily because very few storms of extra-tropical origins have been this strong in the warm season, however, the closest ones still don't show any significant severe wx. other than a 5% up to NYC.

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Lift is more horizontal along a warm front, so the heaviest rain will be displaced to the north of it rather than closer to it. The NAM might be too extreme in its "relaxing" zone between the severe weather and the heavy rain to the north, but it might have the right idea. North of NYC should still get 2"+.

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