WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Also a bit stronger. Stronger vorticity max and down to 998 @ hr 36 Yes definitely more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow at 42 warm front blasting northward and looks like we will be into the warm sector and clear out. - even more amped - Looks like the front stall right over LI (might even get up to the CT Coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Yes definitely more amped Much further north at hr 42, H5 vort. max is weaker though, might reflect in the surface later on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Another run of the NAM, another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 3 - 4 mb Stronger at 12z than 18z @ 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Too bad it's the NAM, I think we're all forgetting what the NAM did to us this past March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Too bad it's the NAM, I think we're all forgetting what the NAM did to us this past March... lol yea agree, but GFS has been trending north too, so lets see. -4k should be interesting to see now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Low gets down to 989mb on the NAM, not too shabby for June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Why would anyone want a cold rain storm in June? Take this as far north as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 4k torches us at 850s this run, waiting on the 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Why would anyone want a cold rain storm in June? Take this as far north as possible. No one does, but there's nothing better to track unfortunately. Low passes right over LI. Sub 990, amazing for June especially since it's of non-tropical origins. It's not too common to see sub 990 pressures in the winter either, maybe 5/6 times a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Meh, either this needs to track way to the north so we have some severe chances or this needs to come south. At least the heavy rain would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There is still essentially 0 surface-based CAPE for our region on the NAM. There is a bit of elevated instability, so perhaps thundery rain or a weak line with high synoptic scale winds is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There is still essentially 0 surface-based CAPE for our region on the NAM. There is a bit of elevated instability, so perhaps thundery rain or a weak line with high synoptic scale winds is in the cards. That's strange too see. I think even the EURO had some CAPE for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The elevated instability might help with some sort of moderate squall either embedded in the rain, or by itself. However, the elevated instability is co-located with only speed shear, not directional shear, since the stronger directional shear is closer to the surface, whereas once you go above 800mb, the shear is really only speed shear and not directional shear. Thus, the severe threat is still pretty low for us. The warm front does not get far enough north during peak heating, and by the time it would even theoretically get close to us in the northward solutions, the cold front would rapidly approach, as would darkness, so you get a linear mode and only elevated convection. Without the surface based CAPE, it will be hard to really rotate any prominent updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That's strange too see. I think even the EURO had some CAPE for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The elevated instability might help with some sort of moderate squall either embedded in the rain, or by itself. However, the elevated instability is co-located with only speed shear, not directional shear, since the stronger directional shear is closer to the surface, whereas once you go above 800mb, the shear is really only speed shear and not directional shear. Thus, the severe threat is still pretty low for us. The warm front does not get far enough north during peak heating, and by the time it would even theoretically get close to us in the northward solutions, the cold front would rapidly approach, as would darkness, so you get a linear mode and only elevated convection. Without the surface based CAPE, it will be hard to really rotate any prominent updrafts. Great points, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I can't recall a mid latitude cyclone of that barometric depth in this area in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GFS is wet http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_063_precip_p60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The GFS puts C NJ in the game for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 How does the EURO look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 SPC is 10 min late, longest i can remember.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 30-45% Hatched Area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 30-45% Hatched Area: Wow we are even in 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow that 30% hatched area we are in is spectacular for this region.....and a 45% hatched region for DC-PHI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 SPC is quite a bit more bulish than I expected them to be, especially for a day 2 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Euro trended slower and a little more north. It now gets us to about 1000 CAPE (a nice improvement over previous runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Euro trended slower and a little more north. It now gets us to about 1000 CAPE (a nice improvement over previous runs) Where do you find instability on the Euro? Anyway, John and I wrote another technical discussion regarding the severe potential. Central NJ might now be in the game for a tornado threat, though they are still borderline. NYC could perhaps get hit by the northern end of a weakening, but still pretty potent squall line if things go right, IMO. I'm not as bullish as SPC is for our area specifically. Our thoughts are elaborated on in here: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/06/12/myriad-of-threats-expected-from-midweek-storm/ I need sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 RGEM lifted index valid 18Z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Where do you find instability on the Euro? Anyway, John and I wrote another technical discussion regarding the severe potential. Central NJ might now be in the game for a tornado threat, though they are still borderline. NYC could perhaps get hit by the northern end of a weakening, but still pretty potent squall line if things go right, IMO. I'm not as bullish as SPC is for our area specifically. Our thoughts are elaborated on here: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/06/12/myriad-of-threats-expected-from-midweek-storm/ I need sleep. Excellent write-up guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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