WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Then again if the warm front clears the area then we would be in the tornado risk zone so it could be the case of either heavy rain with wind or severe weather, tornado risk and damaging winds. On the nam it looks like the front stays right over LI. The warm sector closes off just a little too soon. We are right on the border of the real severe stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 So we have the NAM vs the Euro, one model has shown a different solution every run for the past 12 runs. One model has shown the same solution more or less over and over again. Go with the Euro. Warm fronts are always slow to advance. How did the Euro do with the rain events last Friday and yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Then again if the warm front clears the area then we would be in the tornado risk zone so it could be the case of either heavy rain with wind or severe weather, tornado risk and damaging winds. On the 4k NAM it would be an initial tonrado risk with the warm front and then straight line wind damage with the cold front. The NAM has shown no consistency however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 How did the Euro do with the rain events last Friday and yesterday? More or less nailed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 So we have the NAM vs the Euro, one model has shown a different solution every run for the past 12 runs. One model has shown the same solution more or less over and over again. Go with the Euro. Warm fronts are always slow to advance. Yea still have to go with the EURO but like I said with this type of energy I think the warm front really blasts north. Just like the torch does in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Yea still have to go with the EURO but like I said with this type of energy I think the warm front really blasts north So you think NYC gets both the torrential rain and the severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 So you think NYC gets both the torrential rain and the severe weather? I think we're on the edge of the heavy rain but then the severe threat depends on if we can get some sun and get south of the warm front. Lets see if the GFS continues the trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Upton: IN TERMS OF IMPACTS...A CONSENSUS TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WOULD SPELL A HEAVY RAIN AND WIND EVENT THU INTO THU NIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT STORM TRACK...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK OVER OR TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD LIFT INTO OUR AREA...BUT THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.STRONG SYNOPTIC/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING POINT TOWARDS MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY THU INTO THU NIGHT. THE EXACT AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WOULD LEND TO WIDESPREAD URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE. IN ADDITION TOT HE HEAVY RAIN...EASTERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS THU INTO THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WITH SATURATED GROUNDS THIS COULD LEAD TO DOWNING OF SOME TREES. THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO POSE A LOW THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECAST FOR THE LATEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Upton: IN TERMS OF IMPACTS...A CONSENSUS TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WOULD SPELL A HEAVY RAIN AND WIND EVENT THU INTO THU NIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT STORM TRACK...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK OVER OR TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD LIFT INTO OUR AREA...BUT THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME. STRONG SYNOPTIC/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING POINT TOWARDS MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY THU INTO THU NIGHT. THE EXACT AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WOULD LEND TO WIDESPREAD URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE. IN ADDITION TOT HE HEAVY RAIN...EASTERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS THU INTO THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WITH SATURATED GROUNDS THIS COULD LEAD TO DOWNING OF SOME TREES. THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO POSE A LOW THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECAST FOR THE LATEST. Upton may want to take a look at the NAM. Yes, it has been inconsistent, but it could be on to a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Mount Holly: NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD A STRONGER/WETTER SYSTEM AND ENHANCED WORDING FOR BOTH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS HAS BEEN PUT IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A GROWING POTENTIAL FOR BOTH CONSIDERABLE SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY AND CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS LATEST THINKING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Upton may want to take a look at the NAM. Yes, it has been inconsistent, but it could be on to a trend. The NAM is generally too amplified and NW in it's longer range. I'd go with the Euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 GFS is slightly weaker with the northern system at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Warm front more north at 45 (and the low is slower) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Warm front is sitting just south of LI at 51 (very slightly north from 12z) Over all precip shield looks the same. But without the resolution you cant tell what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Gfs still far north with the low. Heaviest rain in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Ummmm yeah, so who said no severe threat Thursday? You're claiming a severe threat based on a simulated radar map? My god, I thought this sh*t only happened in the winter. You'll get an elevated storm threat and nothing more if the NAM verifies. Surface based instability is still nonexistent. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/NE/namNE_con_sbcape_051.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Love the the look of the 12z euro, strictly based on the best exciting outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The GFS is slightly better for a severe threat into Central NJ. Good instability near and/or just south of the warm front which is loaded with helicity and in a favorable environment for some spinups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The GFS is slightly better for a severe threat into Central NJ. Good instability near and/or just south of the warm front which is loaded with helicity and in a favorable environment for some spinups. Which model do you favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The GFS is slightly better for a severe threat into Central NJ. Good instability near and/or just south of the warm front which is loaded with helicity and in a favorable environment for some spinups. good writeup btw on your blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The GFS is slightly better for a severe threat into Central NJ. Good instability near and/or just south of the warm front which is loaded with helicity and in a favorable environment for some spinups. That low is no joke, should make for an interesting day for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 You can see the warm sector making it's way into Central New Jersey on the NAM, and the sharp gradient to the North: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 A little meh with the model trends today. We're to far north for severe and it looks like a hair to far south for the big rains. Just crapvection and brief downpours unless the Euro and GGEM are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Asked in the mid-Atlantic thread but since you guys are also heavily tracking.. when's the last time we had a strengthening and fairly deep low passing thru the region like this in the warm season and non tropical in origin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Low is slower and good 25 miles north at 27 on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Though no analogs come close to this upcoming storm, one of the closest ones from CIPS is 07/02/1986 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Hopefully the nam wins out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 NAM still slower and 25 miles north of 18z @ 36 - Warm front also 30 - 40 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 The NAM is going crazy this run, sub 996 low already near Pitt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 NAM still slower and 25 miles north of 18z @ 36 - Warm front also 30 - 40 miles north Also a bit stronger. Stronger vorticity max and down to 998 @ hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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