WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Not a typical looking map for June around here. North32America_msl_72.gif Lol its just crazy to look at. If I woke up and had no idea of the date and saw this, Id think we're in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Lol its just crazy to look at. If I woke up and had no idea of the date and saw this, Id think we're in February. Even in mid-winter that would likely still be rain here, or sleet given how close the warm air and the low are. I haven't seen soundings, but I wonder if any actually still have the warm nose at 800mb or 750mb because of how warm the air south of us is and the fact it is being uplifted and wrung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Even in mid-winter that would likely still be rain here, or sleet given how close the warm air and the low are. I haven't seen soundings, but I wonder if any actually still have the warm nose at 800mb or 750mb because of how warm the air south of us is and the fact it is being uplifted and wrung out. This would have burried interior sections and would have likely been a mixed bag for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Flash flood guidance, as you can see, in some spots it's very low. By me it's less than in inch in 3 hours. That's all that's needed to begin small stream flooding. Yeah that's pretty low, tomorrow's the only day we could dry out some as there's still showers ongoing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Yeah that's pretty low, tomorrow's the only day we could dry out some as there's still showers ongoing today. The river by me hasn't crested yet, it should drop some by the time rain comes in Thursday though, maybe a foot or so which will help a little. So far we've been lucky enough out this way to avoid the worst. Rains here from Andrea were mostly 2-3" which were okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I wonder how long this active pattern will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I wonder how long this active pattern will continue. going to be historic for some with regard to rainfall totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 going to be historic for some with regard to rainfall totals... Wettest June on record for some including NYC? If we get another 3+ inches then I would think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Without risking giving false information and looking like an ass, I can tell you from reading the New England sub forum thread that the track of the surface low is pretty well locked in due to the placement of the low currently over New England and a few other factors which I lack the ability to explain. So if you say this is locked in, do you mean a trend even further north on the models or maybe a tick back south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Wettest June on record for some including NYC? If we get another 3+ inches then I would think so. NYC central park is at 8+ right now--3 would put them over the top...and they would do it in less than 2 weeks into the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 So if you say this is locked in, do you mean a trend even further north on the models or maybe a tick back south? What I'm saying is that I don't envision a large change with the major features. Meaning I think the severe threat stays to our south and that this area will get a ton of heavy rain in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Is there wind with the thurs storm or just heavy rain????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Is there wind with the thurs storm or just heavy rain?????Upton mentions that winds might gust to wind advisory criteria along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 First look from Upton Created: 06/11/13 3:52 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 So far thru 42 hours the 18z NAM looks a hair stronger with the precip shield and maybe a hair further south as compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 So far thru 42 hours the 18z NAM looks a hair stronger with the precip shield and maybe a hair further south as compared to 12z. It's also slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 It's also slower The NAM looked like it was coming way south. Very Euro esque, but at the last minute the heaviest precip heads for southern upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 The surface low on this run either jumps north and then back south, or reforms further south. Regardless, we're getting hit by the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Heaviest rain stays "just" to our north, and I mean just. 4-5" amounts showing up south of Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Is there wind with the thurs storm or just heavy rain????? Yes, the will be a synoptic wind threat. Especially near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Warm front got a little further north again on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Warm front got a little further north again on this run Yeah interesting, you can see the warm front clear the area and then the cold front starts racing in on this run from PA. This is the first run that has shown this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Nam would be a lot better for us but at this range it's hard to argue against the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Yeah interesting, you can see the warm front clear the area and then the cold front starts racing in on this run from PA. This is the first run that has shown this. Yea we might be able to get into the warm sector, especially if the sun gets out - Looks like it has the front right over LI like I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Ummmm yeah, so who said no severe threat Thursday? Still not buying it. It's about 50 miles to far north with the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Wow it looks like we get NAILED!! - that line come through so fast Lol that's a MOTHER OF GOD! Summer post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 So does anyone think the NAM is right and northern NJ misses out on most of the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Then again if the warm front clears the area then we would be in the tornado risk zone so it could be the case of either heavy rain with wind or severe weather, tornado risk and damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 So does anyone think the NAM is right and northern NJ misses out on most of the rain? So we have the NAM vs the Euro, one model has shown a different solution every run for the past 12 runs. One model has shown the same solution more or less over and over again. Go with the Euro. Warm fronts are always slow to advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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