Week of June 10th Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Discussion

[Allsnow]

Gfs has shifted even further north now. The heaviest rain in cne

[bluewave]

Another thing. Although I agree with the premise, I think forcing will definitely be more readily available this time around as well. Last year, the forcing was lifting up and out towards Canada -- this setup has a more rapid due west to east propagation of a further south surface low, so the best forcing will not necessarily be shoved northward; but rather, eastward, and could keep up with the storms. I actually think there's a good chance that the cold front could merge with the discrete cells too quickly and force everything to be linear. However, there should be a few hour window where the mode will be discrete before the cold front's advancement -- that's when we'll have to watch out for tornadoes.

 

 

The very northern extent from SNJ to possibly CNJ could originate as elevated convection and work down to the 

surface. So we'll have to monitor later runs for exactly how far north the warm front gets.

[IsentropicLift]

Gfs has shifted even further north now. The heaviest rain in cne

The mets in the NE forum are saying the GFS is to far north. I think the heaviest rain will be closer to the surface low track anyway.

[IsentropicLift]

Not sure which scenario to root for here. I was in the Mid-Atlantic Derecho last year and that was one of the few times in my life I've actually been scared of the weather. A further south track of the low would likely bring several inches of heavy rain in a short period of time to the most flood prone areas. Kind of a damned if we do, damned if we don't setup. Alot of us are severe weather nerds but I doubt any one of us has actually considered the thought of a tornado touching down in their backyard.

[IsentropicLift]

I don't see it happening but the 12z SPC WRF has a pretty healthy looking squall line for today

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

12z GGEM shifted a hair north and is a flooding rain storm. Sub 993 mb low south of Long Island!

 

 

[snywx]

Wow @ the temp contrast from Delaware to the Catskills..  Thurs @ 2pm

[bluewave]

The 12z Euro looks like it takes a deep 992 mb low off the Jersey shore north of ACY

with widespread 2+ for area which could be heavier with elevated convection.

[nycsnow]

Is Thursdays storm gonna be a wind producer even without severe storms?

[IsentropicLift]

Wow @ the temp contrast from Delaware to the Catskills..  Thurs @ 2pm

That's one of the factors regarding dynamics. We have a very sharp temperature gradiant for this time of year to work with.

[nzucker]

Wow @ the temp contrast from Delaware to the Catskills..  Thurs @ 2pm

The thermal gradient on this storm is mid-winter like....it's really developing the mid-level lows which is unusual for June. 

[forkyfork]

The 12z Euro looks like it takes a deep 992 mb low off the Jersey shore north of ACY

with widespread 2+ for area which could be heavier with elevated convection.

more like 3+... there's comma head precip behind the low

[WE GOT HIM]

I still think this will trend more North. It needs to be watched closely.

[bluewave]

more like 3+... there's comma head precip behind the low

 

Yeah, I can see that in the later frames with it looking like it wants to linger into Friday.

[snywx]

That's one of the factors regarding dynamics. We have a very sharp temperature gradiant for this time of year to work with.

For this time of yr thats a little ridiculous.. Mid June with a sub 1000 low passing south of LI with 40's for daytime highs 100 miles NW of the city smh..

[bluewave]

For this time of yr thats a little ridiculous.. Mid June with a sub 1000 low passing south of LI with 40's for daytime highs 100 miles NW of the city smh..

 

I really can't remember seeing a set up like this before in June.

[mupawxnut]

I still think this will trend more North. It needs to be watched closely.

Can you back this up? Not saying it won't trend further north, but can you provide some meteorological information to support this?

[IsentropicLift]

Can you back this up? Not saying it won't trend further north, but can you provide some meteorological information to support this?

Without risking giving false information and looking like an ass, I can tell you from reading the New England sub forum thread that the track of the surface low is pretty well locked in due to the placement of the low currently over New England and a few other factors which I lack the ability to explain.

[champy]

This is nonsense. This weather pattern sucks 

[ag3]

more like 3+... there's comma head precip behind the low

Euro is 3.24" for NYC off the sounding.

[bluewave]

Euro is 3.24" for NYC off the sounding.

 

It's possible someone north of the low could see 5 inch amounts given the elevated convection potential.

I think the last two 5 inch events within a week was back in October 2005 unless I am missing one.

The August 2011 and September action was spaced more than 7 days apart.

[ag3]

It's possible someone north of the low could see 5 inch amounts given the elevated convection potential.

I think the last two 5 inch events within a week was back in October 2005 unless I am missing one.

The August 2011 and September action was spaced more than 7 days apart.

 

If the euro is showing widespread 3"-4" amounts for NYC/LI, it's a clear signal that the jackpot areas under heavier bands/convection could see upwards of 5".

[SnoSki14]

If the euro is showing widespread 3"-4" amounts for NYC/LI, it's a clear signal that the jackpot areas under heavier bands/convection could see upwards of 5".

I don't think the rivers could handle another 3"+ event.

[WE GOT HIM]

Without risking giving false information and looking like an ass, I can tell you from reading the New England sub forum thread that the track of the surface low is pretty well locked in due to the placement of the low currently over New England and a few other factors which I lack the ability to explain.

Common guys, we all have seen crazier things happen. While the sever threat will most likely be to our south, I still think we need to watch this setup up closely. The trend on all the models have been north on almost every run. The Euro basically takes the low a hair south of LI (Which is a good 75 miles north than 24 hours ago.)

 

- I also doubt the temp contrast will set up over LI as the 4k shows. The S flow will be too strong and water temps are now close to the mid 60s (on both shores).

- This is almost a winter like system with a Sub 990 low here in June and that should be kept in context. And we all know how great the models handle those systems.

[IsentropicLift]

Common guys, we all have seen crazier things happen. While the sever threat will most likely be to our south, I still think we need to watch this setup up closely. The trend on all the models have been north on almost every run. The Euro basically takes the low a hair south of LI (Which is a good 75 miles north than 24 hours ago.)

 

- I also doubt the temp contrast will set up over LI as the 4k shows. The S flow will be too strong and water temps are now close to the mid 60s (on both shores).

- This is almost a winter like system with a Sub 990 low here in June and that should be kept in context. And we all know how great the models handle those systems.

Everything could tick south again tomorrow, this tick north is just the small run to run differences you're always going to have. The general placement of the low itself and the warm front (key here is the warm front) is pretty well locked in. It wouldn't shock me if warm front got hung up right over us.

[jm1220]

If the euro is showing widespread 3"-4" amounts for NYC/LI, it's a clear signal that the jackpot areas under heavier bands/convection could see upwards of 5".

It's the absolute last thing many of us need after getting pounded by Andrea and the rains yesterday. The ground is saturated enough as it is.

[IsentropicLift]

I don't think the rivers could handle another 3"+ event.

 

Flash flood guidance, as you can see, in some spots it's very low. By me it's less than in inch in 3 hours. That's all that's needed to begin small stream flooding.

 

[jm1220]

Common guys, we all have seen crazier things happen. While the sever threat will most likely be to our south, I still think we need to watch this setup up closely. The trend on all the models have been north on almost every run. The Euro basically takes the low a hair south of LI (Which is a good 75 miles north than 24 hours ago.)

 

- I also doubt the temp contrast will set up over LI as the 4k shows. The S flow will be too strong and water temps are now close to the mid 60s (on both shores).

- This is almost a winter like system with a Sub 990 low here in June and that should be kept in context. And we all know how great the models handle those systems.

There will only be a south wind if the low is north of you. Otherwise, it's a northeasterly flow. This will be an intense shot of rain with literally 80s/90s temperature air being lifted over the colder air north of it, plus major instability east/south of the low for thunderstorms. With that kind of air being uplifted, I could see 3-5" rain amounts for some. This will have a lot of juice.

[WE GOT HIM]

Everything could tick south again tomorrow, this tick north is just the small run to run differences you're always going to have. The general placement of the low itself and the warm front (key here is the warm front) is pretty well locked in. It wouldn't shock me if warm front got hung up right over us.

Exactly, I think the warm front very close to LI is a better placement vs central Jersey as shown on the NAM

[bluewave]

There will only be a south wind if the low is north of you. Otherwise, it's a northeasterly flow. This will be an intense shot of rain with literally 80s/90s temperature air being lifted over the colder air north of it, plus major instability east/south of the low for thunderstorms. With that kind of air being uplifted, I could see 3-5" rain amounts for some. This will have a lot of juice.

 

Not a typical looking map for June around here.