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Week of June 10th Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Discussion


IsentropicLift

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18z NAM puts us in the warm sector on Sunday. Could be a decent chance at seeing severe weather. Not great timing as it has rain in here by early afternoon. The 12z GFS is further south with the track of the low and would give us more rain

nam-hires_namer_045_sim_reflectivity.gif

Is it correct to use a simulated radar off a model to predict severe?

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The Euro had it and lost it. GFS has been fairly consistent however this has been the wettest run. Hopefully things trend wetter. I want to shatter the rain record.

I suspect the GFS is correct on this. The pattern seems very consistent with what we've had. Even if the pattern flips as the GFS shows in about a week, I think we are shattering the rain record easily.

WX/PT

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