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Week of June 10th Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Discussion


IsentropicLift

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next monday and tuesday will be difficult to forecast due to mcs activity 

 

lots of small s/w's

 

SPC already talking about it..

 

WITH THESE FEATURES SUPPRESSING THE MEAN CENTRAL U.S. MID-LEVEL

RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 5 /MON. 6-17/ AND EVEN TO SOME DEGREE DAY

6...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS.

ATTM...THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL DAY 4 /SUN. 6-16/ WILL LIKELY

BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...AS A COLD FRONT

ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE MOVES

SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. DESPITE FAVORABLE

INSTABILITY...AVAILABLE SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO

WARRANT MENTION OF A MORE HIGH-END SEVERE EVENT.

SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE DAY 5 ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH

VALLEY REGION...AS THE FEATURE EXITING CANADA DAY 4 PROGRESSES

ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THEN INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY

REGION. THIS SETUP WOULD HINT AT A POSSIBLE WIND EVENT...BUT ATTM

SUGGESTIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD ONGOING PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT

DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN MANY AREAS...AND THAT MID-LEVEL

WLY/NWLY FLOW MAY REMAIN A BIT LESS THAN IDEAL FOR CONFIDENT

ISSUANCE OF A 30% EQUIVALENT RISK AREA ATTM. THIS AREA WILL REQUIRE

ATTENTION IN LATER OUTLOOKS...AS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR A FAIRLY

SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT COULD EVOLVE -- PARTICULARLY IF

FUTURE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE INTO DAY 6...THOUGH

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH FASTER IN MOVING THE

SYSTEM ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUE.

SHOULD THE SLOWER ECMWF END UP CLOSER TO REALITY...SEVERE POTENTIAL

WOULD BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION DAY 6.

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With the low transferring to the coast you can see the enhanced lift developing precipitation NW of the surface low and expanding over Northeast PA..working towards NJ as the surface low drops east. 

 

 

...What season is this?

 

I did have a prediction of stuff like this happen in some point in the future, but I never expected it to happen this fast (foretold by my dreams). Anyway, I'm impressed of what's going on with this weather pattern. Also, the Rain/Wind is making it feel chilly here. :3

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Guest Pamela

850s crashing toward the coast now.

Has changed to snow at Scranton & High Point.  Mostly snow with some rain still mixed in at Allentown & Morristown.  Sleet mixing in as close as Teterboro.

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