earthlight Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The RAP still indicates favorable parameters for supercells in Southern New Jersey this afternoon including a high STP. You can see the warm front very clearly via the surface based cape. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/15/NE/rapNE_con_sbcape_007.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 If we could just get a few hours of sun we might really be in business. I think it's going to be a really close call. The stuff out in Central PA is nothing impressive at the moment. We would want it to start firing soon if we're going to get a mature MCS. Doesn't seem likely at the moment. Looking at the latest pressure falls, shear and cape, I honestly don't see us getting into warm sectored severe weather. I could see some low topped convection from the warm front perhaps getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Sun starting to break in Queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Dark here again with some drizzle. Now I know why the SBCAPE isn't surging west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 GFS has another strong low pressure swinging in on Tuesday. We might be on the warm side of the storm with that one. In any event, it looks like a rainy first half of next week after a nice weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wouldn't want to be in a boat off the Jerz Shore right now. Good Lord! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wouldn't want to be in a boat off the Jerz Shore right now. Good Lord! Quite a few couplets on radar now with the southern part of the line. Wouldn't shock me if there was a waterspout or two with some of the discrete stuff firing ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The sun is out here in western nassau with strong gusts to around 30 mph right behind the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Big change. New outlook shifts the slight risk down to SNJ and the moderate risk down to SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wow did they ever hack the moderate risk area. Now confined south of Ocean City, MD. Also sligh risk zone is fron ACY south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 I feel bad for the DC crew. They got screwed this winter and by the looks of it, screwed again today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wow did they ever hack the moderate risk area. Now confined south of Ocean City, MD. Also sligh risk zone is fron ACY south. Surprised the zone is that far south given how far north significant CAPE is expected to make it. There are also clearing patches that should destabilize things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wouldn't shock me if they dropped the flood watches early. The really flashy streams/rivers barely flinched. Another inch or so with maybe locally heavier amounts isn't going to cause widespread flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Upton really backed off heavy rain for today but seems to still think we'll get more this evening .THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATEDTHUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THENSHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.LOWS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Looks like it's shaping up to be a pretty nice day. My evening run may be salvageable after-all. Only 0.31" of rain so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 My PWS gusting 20-30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Picked up 0.19" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It's drying up over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Looks like a break in the action before the storms arrive later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The current batch of storms over WV is likely our shot for more organized rain if it can link up with more rain over western NY/PA. But I don't think this comes close to flood guidance for most of us. Upton and Mt. Holly can probably drop the watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Looks like a break in the action before the storms arrive later on. cref15min_t3sfc_f0215.png cref15min_t3sfc_f0700.png Strongly doubting the WV MCS clears the Jersey coast in only 3 1/2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 The current batch of storms over WV is likely our shot for more organized rain if it can link up with more rain over western NY/PA. But I don't think this comes close to flood guidance for most of us. Upton and Mt. Holly can probably drop the watches. I was thinking the same thing. Flooding threat seems to have passed. Some locations may end up seeing less than 0.50". Never thought that had a chance in hell of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The warm front now appears to be between Philly and Trenton. Where winds have switch more south and clearing is taking place. North of there is still marine layer and cloudcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I was thinking the same thing. Flooding threat seems to have passed. Some locations may end up seeing less than 0.50". Never thought that had a chance in hell of happening. Even the steady rain area over upstate NY is fairly underwhelming so far, probably due to the MCS this morning robbing from the moisture transport into the rain area. No really heavy rain rates and amounts generally around an inch or so around Syracuse. Not looking like a very big deal for us, other than wind picking up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Pretty confident now in calling bust. Decent heavy band of showers now right where the LP is located but it won't be developing into an MCS. CAPE is 0 up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Strongly doubting the WV MCS clears the Jersey coast in only 3 1/2 hours That's 6pm not 3/12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 That's 6pm not 3/12 hrs. Yeah I added wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Even the steady rain area over upstate NY is fairly underwhelming so far, probably due to the MCS this morning robbing from the moisture transport into the rain area. No really heavy rain rates and amounts generally around an inch or so around Syracuse. Not looking like a very big deal for us, other than wind picking up later. The further north low track pushed the dry slot into our area. Instead of drenching overruning rains, we'll see scattered convection with the passage of the low this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Pretty confident now in calling bust. Decent heavy band of showers now right where the LP is located but it won't be developing into an MCS. CAPE is 0 up that way. Not a bust yet, but the writing on the wall for one was around for a couple of days. Warm fronts have a really tough time getting past the cool water environment we still have, and the main rain area was pushing further and further north on modelling other than the fluke runs yesterday. The MCS this morning is likely the final nail in the coffin, as it cooled and stabilized everything behind it. I was thinking yesterday that overall this would be pretty boring for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 love the bust...going out to cut now...we got a run of the mill thunderstorm this morning and that's about it. Probably no more than .25 of rain. Gentlemen start your lawnmowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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