Stormlover74 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I was never that excited about the severe weather aspect but I want my monsoon which is odd since you are most vulnerable to river flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Anyone a few miles west of NYC in Jersey? The sun should be coming out there in the next 30 min. Still pouring here in Ramsey. Will keep you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 which is odd since you are most vulnerable to river flooding I like my severe weather. Then I worry about the rest later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Still pouring here in Ramsey. Will keep you posted. Sounds good man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Sun just coming out here in New Providence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Sky is brightening up here in Bernardsville and see a few patches of blue sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Breaks in the clouds and some sun here. It will be interesting to see where the warm front moves to over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Picked up a real quick 0.75" of an inch at home. Will be interesting to see how much of a rise we get on the river. Will know in about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Sun just coming out here in New Providence. Wow great, is it pronounced or with lots low low clouds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Mid-level lapse rates are starting to recover behind this morning MCS. This should help destabilize the atmosphere more quickly, away from the marine influence: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 New Mesoscale lost the bubble in the Delmarva, and the primary got stronger, so it looks like it will hold on for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Mid-level lapse rates are starting to recover behind this morning MCS. This should help destabilize the atmosphere more quickly, away from the marine influence: Yeah and shear is becoming quite robust and some SBCAPE is building west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 New Mesoscale lost the bubble in the Delmarva, and the primary got stronger, so it looks like it will hold on for now.That bubble off the coast could have been just the mesolow from the squall line, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The northward surge of the warm front could still occur directly behind the decaying MCS, where the clearing is being observed. We should also start to see improving mid level lapse rates. At the very least, elevated instability should increase with the surface instability maximizing just south of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 New Mesoscale lost the bubble in the Delmarva, and the primary got stronger, so it looks like it will hold on for now. One thing about the primary is that it's in no hurry. It's moved maybe 30 miles or so since 8AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 12z GFS still insists on taking this thing off the DE/SNJ coast around 00z tonight and then slightly northeastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 12z GFS is also an addiontal 1-2" for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 12z GFS still insists on taking this thing off the DE/SNJ coast around 00z tonight and then slightly northeastward The GFS has the surface low in the same exact spot as the NAM at 12 hours http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_12z/f12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Perhaps the MDT risk gets pushed a little more north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Perhaps the MDT risk gets pushed a little more north? I don't see any overwhelming evidence that would cause that to happen. I actually wouldn't be surprised if it was pushed a little farther south to account for the developing MCS in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Pouring here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Breaks of sun now in Ramsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Pretty cool here to see the high level clouds moving from SW to NE (warm front)? and the low and mid-level clouds from south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I don't see any overwhelming evidence that would cause that to happen. I actually wouldn't be surprised if it was pushed a little farther south to account for the developing MCS in WV. There are at least upgrading mod risk further south over Carolinas. But perhaps the slight risk will be expaned little further north for the possible MCV over NE PA/NNJ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1059.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Sun poking out in Queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wow great, is it pronounced or with lots low low clouds? It was shining through breaks in the clouds. Seems to have clouded over again, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Significant breaks of sun here in Andover. Winds gusting to 30-35 out of the SSE and temp of 63, 0.54" in the bucket so far today. Not expecting warm front to make it here, be interesting to see how much rain we really end with because local paper had 2-4" in headline. Thinking 1/2 of that if not less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Pretty cool here to see the high level clouds moving from SW to NE (warm front)? and the low and mid-level clouds from south to north.Veering Winds with height, indicative of waa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 There are at least upgrading mod risk further south over Carolinas. But perhaps the slight risk will be expaned little further north for the possible MCV over NE PA/NNJ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1059.html Some of the high resolution models are taking the area of enhanced forcing near the sfc low over Central PA and developing it into a convective feature. That would become a significant concern if it develops. But right now, instability near it is very minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Veering Winds with height, indicative of waa If we could just get a few hours of sun we might really be in business. I think it's going to be a really close call. The stuff out in Central PA is nothing impressive at the moment. We would want it to start firing soon if we're going to get a mature MCS. Doesn't seem likely at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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