IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 The MCS looks to drop a good 1-2" areawide. Current radar estimates are between 0.25-0.50"+ with pockets close to 1" per hour rates. Also lots of severe thunderstorm activity in southern Ohio so we should get a second round of storms after the MCS I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Impressive look on the PA/MD border. Shelf Cloud? Could be some neat photos out of this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Is this MCS associated with just the warm front? Current SPC Mesoscale analysis puts a 998 mb low near Erie, PA Looks like the WF is in-between D.C. and Cape May, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Looks like the WF is in-between D.C. and Cape May, NJ.Low is slightly stronger than forcasted at this point.- The MCS I think has moved much faster than the models had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Looks like the WF is in-between D.C. and Cape May, NJ. I think I would put it over AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Looking at radar/surface analyis, there might be aweak triple-point low over SE PA. Warm front extends east from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I think the key for us will be if we can sneak a few hours of sunlight in somehow. The 4k shoots up the temps as soon as the sun breaks over NJ. IF the clearing can get a little further north temps will rocket. It's highly unlikely anyone north of Trenton gets any kind of severe weather. The warm front looks like it will stay south of us, and even if somehow it did make it further north the SE wind would kill off any chance near a coast. We will have a batch of mod-occasionally heavy rain with what is currently in eastern PA, and then showery weather later with whatever convection can fire up. If not much does, what we're about to get might be pretty much it. The steady rain looks like it stays a good bit north of us, focusing on I-90 in NY and a little further south in New England. I'm not thinking our immediate area around NYC has many significant impacts besides winds kicking up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 It's highly unlikely anyone north of Trenton gets any kind of severe weather. The warm front looks like it will stay south of us, and even if somehow it did make it further north the SE wind would kill off any chance near a coast. We will have a batch of mod-occasionally heavy rain with what is currently in eastern PA, and then showery weather later with whatever convection can fire up. If not much does, what we're about to get might be pretty much it. The steady rain looks like it stays a good bit north of us, focusing on I-90 in NY and a little further south in New England. I'm not thinking our immediate area around NYC has many significant impacts besides winds kicking up later. Most of the modeling has the low clearing the coast near the Delmarva or southern NJ coast. The low is currently sitting south of Buffalo so it's going to need to take a pretty big SE jog to make it. My thinking is that it should take the precip shield south with it more towards our region. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Nasty cell incoming to Annapolis area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Pouring here now... Just looking at the radar, the northern portion of the line is really bowing out and embedded thunderstorms are popping up within the northern portion of the MCS. Also the whole thing looks to be making somewhat of a SW to NE turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Most of the modeling has the low clearing the coast near the Delmarva or southern NJ coast. The low is currently sitting south of Buffalo so it's going to need to take a pretty big SE jog to make it. My thinking is that it should take the precip shield south with it more towards our region. Just a thought. Agree-with the system sinking ESE, the main precip shield will also settle ESE. Just my 2 cents, but I'm thinking South coast of NE, LI and perhaps NYC see a steady heavy rain late day and into tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Agree-with the system sinking ESE, the main precip shield will also settle ESE. Just my 2 cents, but I'm thinking South coast of NE, LI and perhaps NYC see a steady heavy rain late day and into tonight... I sure hope so because 1-2 hours of moderate to heavy rain is quite the buzz kill after 7 days of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Agree-with the system sinking ESE, the main precip shield will also settle ESE. Just my 2 cents, but I'm thinking South coast of NE, LI and perhaps NYC see a steady heavy rain late day and into tonight... Models do this to an extent, but perhaps enough to get most of CT and RI into it. It will be a close call for the northern suburbs, but I think it will take a good amount to get more than showery stuff into the immediate metro, LI, and central NJ. South of there has to watch to see how much clearing can take place before the cold front arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I sure hope so because 1-2 hours of moderate to heavy rain is quite the buzz kill after 7 days of tracking. I don't mind having less rain. Everything around here is still soaked after Andrea's remnants flooded us. I don't mind New England and I-90 taking this one instead. The only interest I have is perhaps nearing the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Holy nzucker batman, how many times ya gonna say I-90 jm? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 I don't mind having less rain. Everything around here is still soaked after Andrea's remnants flooded us. I don't mind New England and I-90 taking this one instead. The only interest I have is perhaps nearing the record. Out this way we had a lot less rain from Andrea. We only had about 2.5" while you guys had more like 4-6.5"+. So far we've come in under forecast with every event this week. Anyway, WPC tends to agree that the heaviest rains will be well south, perhaps even south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 The portion of the line now crossing into eastern MD has some embedded rotation within it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Reports down Philly-way of dark-as-night skies with that line moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Holy nzucker batman, how many times ya gonna say I-90 jm? Lol It's a frame of reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 we certainly do not need anymore rain so I for one am very glad that this will likely underperform...just getting some garden variety rain and thunder right now. No big deal. Hopefully we can dry out over the weekend and the rain threat for early next week dissapates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Reports down Philly-way of dark-as-night skies with that line moving through. The line is bowing out now as it is passing by the Mount Laurel area. Probably 50 or so mph winds there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I'm getting occasional loud thunder here w/ that line, so storms down in PHL must be sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The new MCS forming over OH/KY is another wild card for this afternoon. Their might be screw/dead zone, as that goes to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 The new MCS forming over OH/KY is another wild card for this afternoon. Their might be screw/dead zone, as that goes to our south. Right now that looks like it will be to far south but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The NAM pushes the warm front to around JFK later on so it looks like the 18z GFS was correct yesterday. SND.gif Freezing line's at about 625mb. Some of the flakes might melt before hitting the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 The 4k NAM has this coming through around 00z but I'm not sure how well it can be trusted given it doesn't really have a good handle on the current radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The NAM pushes the warm front to around JFK later on so it looks like the 18z GFS was correct yesterday. SND.gif Which may translate to gusty winds for The Northern Tri-State Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The 12z 4kM NAM has MCV developing over N PA this afternoon. I would be careful of the NAM though. It still doesn't have a good handle this morning's MCS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 anyone got the QPF map from the 12z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Some clearing already approaching us from western Jersey. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=NJ_Penn-vis-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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