IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 4k NAM looks to give everyone 2" +. sim radar at 27 is wow. The simulated radar shows you that the real heavy stuff is really from I-80 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 The heavy stuff is gonna reach alot further south than the I-90 corridor.. Model QPF really looks underdone. I would say the heavy stuff makes it down to at least I-80, maybe even I-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 The stupid weather channel just showed the RPM model, what a joke. Anyways it had the Indiana squall line reaching us around 6AM as heavy showers. I haven't seen one model that has shown this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The simulated radar shows you that the real heavy stuff is really from I-80 north.But then there's 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 4km NAM through hr 32, most precip has stopped falling except far eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 But then there's 24 This is really the first time that I've ever used the 4k NAM regularly for a few days in a row for one event. One thing I've learned is that you can run it 50 different times and you'll get 50 completely different outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 4km NAM through hr 32, most precip has stopped falling except far eastern LI. Oh no, my backyard gets shafted You can probably take the band in southern NY state and shift it 50 miles south and expand the general area of heavy rain well to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 We'll have to watch that area of rain coming in off of Lake Erie. I think that is what eventually will make it here in about 8 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 4km NAM through hr 32, most precip has stopped falling except far eastern LI. Ha..Bergen, Morris, Essex, and Passaic counties get spared while every county around them get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Gfs is a little slower and more amped (1-2mb stronger). It's also looks like the warm front goes a little more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I think the key for us will be if we can sneak a few hours of sunlight in somehow. The 4k shoots up the temps as soon as the sun breaks over NJ. IF the clearing can get a little further north temps will rocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Fully mature MCS now. That whole thing has rainfall rates of greater than 0.5" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyk Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Radar already starting to light up along the warm front, across delaware,and eastern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 That heavy rain in southern Michigan could be the initial batch to hit our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Spc took us down to 5% for wind and thats about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Spc took us down to 5% for wind and thats about it Anyone north of C NJ was always out of the severe threat, I don't know what you expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Anyone north of C NJ was always out of the severe threat, I don't know what you expected. Well yea odds were against it (as per most of the models) but apparently SPC didn't think that this afternoon when they had us in 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Euro is not impressive. Some rain, no storms. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Euro is not impressive. Some rain, no storms. Next if u can, how is euro qpf for bos area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Euro is not impressive. Some rain, no storms. Next Instead of calling bust, let the storm play out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I agree that the SPC Moderate is probably too far south -- or at least the cutoff on the northern fringes is far too sharp. Also, new blue box for Central and Southern NJ with the weakening MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I agree that the SPC Moderate is probably too far south -- or at least the cutoff on the northern fringes is far too sharp. Also, new blue box for Central and Southern NJ with the weakening MCS.I was suprised. I would of thought they would of trimmed down the northern extent of the slight risk but kept the mdt areas the same. GFS still gives PHL - CNJ some good cape with great LI.What are your current thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 We'll have to see where the warm front winds up, after this morning MCS move through. The models have underestimated before the outflow influence convection with the frontal boundaries this season. The Euro and GFS seem to far north with the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 06 4k nam looks much more severe on the sim that 0z did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 How's the wind situation looking for tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Nice T-Storm with solid lightning here in Lakeville, PA (near Lake Wallenpaupack).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 06 4k nam looks much more severe on the sim that 0z did It's not handling the southern extent of the MCS well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...NJ...MD EXCEPT PANHANDLE...CENTRAL/ERN WV...DC...DE...NRN/CENTRAL VA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...304... VALID 131210Z - 131345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...304...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...CONTINUE WWS ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY MCS...WHICH WAS LOCATED AT 12Z FROM E-CENTRAL PA TO NEAR FDK THEN WSWWD TO S-CENTRAL WV NEAR CRW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD...OFFERING OCNL GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS. MAIN HAZARD WILL REMAIN WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY INVOLVING TREES AND POWER LINES. DISCUSSION...MOST WELL-ORGANIZED PART OF MCS WAS EVIDENT ASTRIDE MD/PA BORDER...GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF SFC WARM-FRONTAL ZONE THAT WAS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ACROSS PHL/ACY AREAS THEN SEWD OVER ATLC. WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND IS SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR RISK OF STG/DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH SFC WITHIN 50-75 NM TO ITS N AS WELL. PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F...ACTING IN TANDEM WITH POCKETS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING TO INCREASE BUOYANCY. MLCAPE JUST PRIOR TO TSTM ARRIVAL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 /KG ALONG WARM FRONT TO 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE IN CENTRAL VA...ALONG N END OF MODIFIED EML EVIDENT IN 12Z RNK RAOB THAT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WITH SWD EXTENT. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED N OF VA/NC BORDER...WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES FROM WARM FRONT TO N-CENTRAL VA. ALTHOUGH SVR THREAT FROM PRIMARY MCS CURRENTLY DIMINISHES WITH WWD EXTENT INTO WV...RISK MAY INCREASE AGAIN FROM TWO PERSPECTIVES... 1. RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ACTIVITY MOVING FROM CENTRAL/SRN WV EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL VA...AND INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. 2. UPSHEAR CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS SERN INDIANA AND MOVING ESEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INITIAL MCS. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SCENARIO...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058 FORTHCOMING. ..EDWARDS.. 06/13/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It's not handling the southern extent of the MCS well: Good point, also just looking at the radar and satellite it looks like the MCS should clear the area by noon or so. I really think we can get some sun behind it. It is already clearing out in western PA and NY. (- the shield is much more north than on the sim in that area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Is this MCS associated with just the warm front? Current SPC Mesoscale analysis puts a 998 mb low near Erie, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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