Weathergun Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 18z GFS shows good SBCAPE as far NE as Staten Island: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This almost reminds me of model waffling with winter storm tracks when Gulf convection is involved. We just don't have much experience with deep June lows forming in conjunction with a MCS on a High Risk severe day. Yea, great analogy. With these supercells it is proably even 2-3x harder on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Lol gfs almost has a repeat of tomorrow's system for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Lol gfs almost has a repeat of tomorrow's system for next week.Yeah the GFS is like another 2" of rain in the next seven days after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Yeah the GFS is like another 2" of rain in the next seven days after this storm If all of this materializes, we might break the June rainfall record by a few inches. What's the all time record for rain in any month for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 18z GFS shows good SBCAPE as far NE as Staten Island: It trended away from the unorganized 12z run very rapidly. A bit slower and definitely farther northwest. The warm front gets farther north as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 18Z RGEM gets the warm front to a line near TTN-BLM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow @ this image, almost the entire radar field is covered with supercells and Squall Lines. - It looks like some of the severe storms are more north than the models and SPC indicated aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 22Z MSLP, wind barbs, isodrosotherms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The GFS is notorious for overdoing sfc dewpoints, which thus lead to too high of SB CAPE values. On a cloudier/cooler day, more moisture inherently leads to more CAPE, and of course, right on the boundary, it's cloudier and cooler than just south. Thus, I think the GFS is too strong and too far north with its instability axis. That being said, the very far south solutions appear unlikely. I think the 18z RGEM and NAM have the right idea, placing the WF somewhere in C NJ. This firmly entrenches S NJ in the warm sector for discrete cells, and C NJ is on the fringe, but could also cash in -- certainly more uncertainty there. I still think the NYC area is too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I also think the GFS may be way underdone with rain amounts in the cool sector. Would you agree? The GFS is notorious for overdoing sfc dewpoints, which thus lead to too high of SB CAPE values. On a cloudier/cooler day, more moisture inherently leads to more CAPE, and of course, right on the boundary, it's cloudier and cooler than just south. Thus, I think the GFS is too strong and too far north with its instability axis. That being said, the very far south solutions appear unlikely. I think the 18z RGEM and NAM have the right idea, placing the WF somewhere in C NJ. This firmly entrenches S NJ in the warm sector for discrete cells, and C NJ is on the fringe, but could also cash in -- certainly more uncertainty there. I still think the NYC area is too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 NYC is at 7.96" for the month ( rainfall wise ). The record is 10.27" which was set in 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 NYC is at 7.96" for the month ( rainfall wise ). The record is 10.27" which was set in 2003. It would take a miracle for that not to be broken...even if tomorrow busts horribly, there's still 17 days left in the month to get 2.25 inches of rain... BDR is a bit tougher--have to get to 17 due to the rains from Agnes in '72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Nam is north @15 and 2mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 WPC cut back on the rain amountshttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 this makes no sense to me whatsoever. GFS hugging? What model shows the heaviest stripe that far south? WPC cut back on the rain amountshttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Are the WPC QPF graphics archived because the Day One and Two graphics issued at 18Z looked quite a bit different if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Nam barely gives NYC an inch of rain. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_027_precip_p24.gif There is still the whole backside of the storm after 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 There is still the whole backside of the storm after 27 I spoke to soon.0z Nam has a lot of rain for upstate NY and points to the north. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I spoke to soon.0z Nam has a lot of rain for upstate NY and points to the north. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_p24.gif Yea it still keeps the really heavy stuff north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Yea it still keeps the really heavy stuff north it does get the heavy stuff as far south as the lower Hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I spoke to soon.0z Nam has a lot of rain for upstate NY and points to the north. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_p24.gif can someone zoom that in? Looks like 3-4 inches north of NYC-wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 There is still the whole backside of the storm after 27 I think that's fairly questionable. There probably won't be a massive comma head like you would expect in the winter. Looks like most of the steady rain will stay north of most of us after an initial round in the morning. The heaviest rain looks to be in the I-90 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 can someone zoom that in? Looks like 3-4 inches north of NYC-wow About 1.25-1.5" for NYC, east, west. Up to 4" north of city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 take a look at the upper levels and explain why there wont be a comma head, or at least a semblence of one. To me, you have to rule out the month and look at the raw data and backside rain is a distinct possibility. I think that's fairly questionable. There probably won't be a massive comma head like you would expect in the winter. Looks like most of the steady rain will stay north of most of us after an initial round in the morning. The heaviest rain looks to be in the I-90 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 About 1.25-1.5" for NYC, east, west. Up to 4" north of city. Tight gradient from north to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 NAM didn't initialize well with the batch of thunderstorms SE of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 4k NAM looks to give everyone 2" +. sim radar at 27 is wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 4k NAM looks to give everyone 2" +. sim radar at 27 is wow. 27 is impressive http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=00ℑ=nam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_027_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I think that's fairly questionable. There probably won't be a massive comma head like you would expect in the winter. Looks like most of the steady rain will stay north of most of us after an initial round in the morning. The heaviest rain looks to be in the I-90 corridor. The heavy stuff is gonna reach alot further south than the I-90 corridor.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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