Absolute Humidity Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 My NWS point and click shows 2.29" threw Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Still an early call but the 18z NAM looks like it will send the main precip over this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 18Z MSLP, wind barbs, isodrosotherms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 18z NAM is going to be very wet for us with a very sharp cut off for southern New England unless something unusual happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 On the 18z NAM the warm front clears the area right as the rest of the activity is ariving from the west. I don't think the rain stops north of Philly. The low still weakens as it approaches the coast The rain on the 18z NAM would begin early tomorrow between 06-09z and end very early Friday around 06z. About a 24 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On the 18z NAM the warm front clears the area right as the rest of the activity is ariving from the west. I don't think the rain stops north of Philly. The low still weakens as it approaches the coast Yes, That keeps us still under the gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 19Z MSLP, wind barbs, isodrosotherms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Once the low clears the coast intensification occurs. Nice deform banding south of Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 ^18z NAM goes nuts south of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Nam shows widespread 2"+ amounts, will the gfs follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Precip finally moving out between 15z-18z on Friday. 36 hour event. A solid 2-4" of rain areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Correction on the 18z NAM, still has more precip to follow the main batch till it finally clears out around 20z-00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Lee Goldberg on WABC is forecasting the heaviest rain to stay north of NYC with NYC area barely getting an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Lee Goldberg on WABC is forecasting the heaviest rain to stay north of NYC with NYC area barely getting an inch. lol...what a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Lee Goldberg on WABC is forecasting the heaviest rain to stay north of NYC with NYC area barely getting an inch. Obviously is hugging the 12z GFS/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 4K sim radar spares most of Central and southern PA of storms (with the cold front) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 20Z MLSP, wind barbs, isodrosotherms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Devil Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Yikes My biggest concern with these is that these forecasts are often low. I know for a fact Irene was never forecast to crest well over 15 feet at Mahwah, if it had been my flood prep would have been drastically different and saved me a lot of work and loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Still impressive storm potential on the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Still impressive storm potential on the warm front Do you personaly think it can get this far north at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 0Z OP Euro may come 20-30 miles further north as the ensemble mean is a little NW of 12z OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 18z GFS is almost 12-15 hours faster than the 18z NAM as well. The GFS has the low near ACY at 00z Friday while the NAM has the low back near DC at the same hour and doesn't reach ACY until about 4-5z Friday. Then the NAM is very slow to move out while the GFS hauls ass eastward. The NAM slows down and begins a phase right as the low reaches the coast while the GFS is south of the twin forks by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 21Z MSLP, wind barbs, isodrosotherms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The MCS is starting to develop now. So I think that once the 0z models correctly initialize the convection the overnight guidance into tomorrow am will tighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 The MCS is starting to develop now. So I think that once the 0z models correctly initialize the convection the overnight guidance into tomorrow am will tighten up. ir0.gif Chicago is going to absolutely get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The MCS is starting to develop now. So I think that once the 0z models correctly initialize the convection the overnight guidance into tomorrow am will tighten up. ir0.gif I was thinking the same thing. The models wont have to predict where, and how many storms will pop up today anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 18z GFS is almost 12-15 hours faster than the 18z NAM as well. The GFS has the low near ACY at 00z Friday while the NAM has the low back near DC at the same hour and doesn't reach ACY until about 4-5z Friday. Then the NAM is very slow to move out while the GFS hauls ass eastward. The NAM slows down and begins a phase right as the low reaches the coast while the GFS is south of the twin forks by then. It is also significantly more north (for 24 out) than 12z and 3-4 mb stronger - Its as if, in the morning with less storms, the 12z suit weakend the whole system, but with the new afternoon convertion they now see it as being more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I was thinking the same thing. The models wont have to predict where, and how many storms will pop up today anymore. This almost reminds me of model waffling with winter storm tracks when Gulf convection is involved. We just don't have much experience with deep June lows forming in conjunction with a MCS on a High Risk severe day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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