DiehardFF Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Any possiblity that the 12z GFS/NAM had a hiccup? I hope the 12z EURO sheds some light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 NO changes to SPC day 2 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not a fan of the SPC's discussion, and I do still think their 30% zone and slight risk zones are just a tad too far north, but I'm also glad they didn't correct all the way back south like the WPC was implying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 12z GGEM takes a sub 995 low south of Long Island. Looks UKIE'ish. Dumps a good amount of rain on us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 12z Euro is south of 0z and weaker through 36 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Just for sh*ts and giggles..the NAV is quite amped up and a super soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 12z Euro is south of 0z and weaker through 36 hr.How much rain does NYC get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Tornado threat looks like it's shifting south. CNJ is looking less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 12z EURO has about 1.75"-2" for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 12z EURO has about 1.75"-2" Probably because it's not as amped, I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 12z EURO has about 1.75"-2"For NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 How much rain does NYC get? Looks similar to the UKMET with estimated close to 2", but I don't have the sounding with exact number. A weaker and more suppressed system like some of the other 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Looks similar to the UKMET with estimated close to 2", but I don't have the sounding with exact number. A weaker and more suppressed system like some of the other 12z guidance. Is there any way the NYC area doesn't even get an inch out of this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Is there any way the NYC area doesn't even get an inch out of this system? of course. there's always a way that at least one of the NYC sites comes in under an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 12z euro is very similar to the rgem and ukmet. Right about 2" of rain for NYC. Euro/Rgem combo is usually very solid inside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 GGEM is more like a 1-3" type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Is there any way the NYC area doesn't even get an inch out of this system? If the low is a little further north, we could be between the heavy stratiform rain north of us and major thunderstorm activity south of us. We'd then likely have mostly showers other than if the frontal squall line can manage to sweep through. It's possible we get less than an inch but I'd say it's much more likely we get more. I guess for the most action in this area I'd root for the southern low solution as it will be near impossible to get severe weather from this area north and east. This might be pretty boring if the heavy rain stays to the north over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 12z euro: NYC: 1.86" BDR: 1.52" ISP: 1.79" MMU: 2.07" PHL: 1.61" ABE: 2.33" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GGEM is more like a 1-3" type deal If you hit "Quebec" on that site, it zooms into the northeast. 12z RGEM is 40-50mm which is about exactly what the euro has, 1.50"-2" of rain. The 3"-4" amounts are back in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 If you hit "Quebec" on that site, it zooms into the northeast. 12z RGEM is 40-50mm which is about exactly what the euro has, 1.50"-2" of rain. The 3"-4" amounts are back in PA. I didn't say the RGEM I said the GGEM. Doesn't make much of a difference. 1.5-2.0" modeled is going to have locally heavier pockets as well. I'm still not buying the weakening at the last minute. I think the convection out in the west is causing major modeling problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think we can all come out of this happy it's not winter if NYC gets 1.5" of rain that'd be maybe 12-15" of snow....but we'd be complaining as we watch hunter mountain into SE NE get 30-40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think we can all come out of this happy it's not winter if NYC gets 1.5" of rain that'd be maybe 12-15" of snow....but we'd be complaining as we watch hunter mountain into SE NE get 30-40" I'll be dissapointed we didn't get the apocalyptic storm. Anyone that is rooting for a non event doesn't really appreciate severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The main difference with the 12z guidance today was that the trough comes out more positive tilted or progressive than it has been in the earlier forecasts. It could have been the enhanced convection in earlier runs with a stronger vort and more ridging ahead of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Update from HPC, seems like they want to put the axis of heaviest rain over centered right over northern NJ and NYC. Would be a real bummer if 1.0"+ was the best this area saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 I should have posted this graphic instead, it's thru 00z Saturday and is 2-3" for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 PDS tornado watch out west SEL8 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA NORTHERN ILLINOIS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MASON CITY IOWA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && DISCUSSION...POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST IOWA EASTWARD ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. A VOLATILE WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD FUEL INTENSE THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS AROUND 50KT SUPPORTS UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION. A NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO A CONSOLIDATION OF STORMS INTO A LARGE MCS TOWARD EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES SEEM POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNDRAFT/DAMAGING WIND THREATS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 SREF's backed off a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 SREF's backed off a bit Ramapo River should be ok, so long as we don't get some convective rains that put down 4 inches in 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Ramapo River should be ok, so long as we don't get some convective rains that put down 4 inches in 8 hours. Be very careful, models tend to under estimate precip in convection. Still a pretty good chance that we get some very heavy thunderstorms capable of dropping 1-2" in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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