IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 2:35 PM, user13 said: Some clearing already approaching us from western Jersey. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=NJ_Penn-vis-6 Yeah maybe we'll get some decent SBCAPE in here and the afternoon might feature more in the way of thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 That heavy stuff just completely died out as it moved into the more stable air. NAM has under an inch for most spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 2:42 PM, Plfdwxdude said: That heavy stuff just completely died out as it moved into the more stable air. NAM has under an inch for most spots Yea, It is okay though, the faster this gets out of here the better chance we have to get some sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Just comparing the 12z NAM to current radar trends I wouldn't put to much stock into it. It had the squall line currently hammering southern NJ out by Central Long Island and dissipated by 15z. Current time is 1445Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It's best not to expect too much later today and then if we do get something, it'll be a nice surprise. In fact most of our biggest severe weather occurred when it wasn't expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Storms are firing now to the west of Williamsport to the west of some clearing. I think that area needs to be watched now for our next storm chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 2:47 PM, jetski09 said: It's best not to expect too much later today and then if we do get something, it'll be a nice surprise. In fact most of our biggest severe weather occurred when it wasn't expected. When you spend 7 days tracking a potent storm you go big or you go home. Anything less is dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 2:46 PM, YanksFan27 said: Just comparing the 12z NAM to current radar trends I wouldn't put to much stock into it. It had the squall line currently hammering southern NJ out by Central Long Island and dissipated by 15z. Current time is 1445Z It might take a little longer but it is already dissipating. - very long rumble of thunder as I type this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 2:48 PM, YanksFan27 said: When you spend 7 days tracking a potent storm you go big or you go home. Anything less is dissapointment. Maybe in winter but not with regards to severe weather which is generally hit or miss. That's why I never get my hopes up with severe since it mostly never pans out as forecast. There's no reason to get so worked up in the summer. For myself I think the biggest tracking periods are winter storms and tropical systems unless we're dealing with a major system/nor'easter type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 2:53 PM, jetski09 said: Maybe in winter but not with regards to severe weather which is generally hit or miss. That's why I never get my hopes up with severe since it mostly never pans out as forecast. There's no reason to get so worked up in the summer. For myself I think the biggest tracking periods are winter storms and tropical systems unless we're dealing with a major system/nor'easter type event. This was supposed to be a major noreaster and severe weather producer. Not everyone here only gets excited over snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Starting to wonder how far south the low is going to make it. So far it's moved due east in the past 3 hours. Maybe a tad southeast of east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 2:50 PM, user13 said: It might take a little longer but it is already dissipating. - very long rumble of thunder as I type this No, you don't understand. This is what the 12z NAM had for this hour. Exactly 11AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Going to have a hard time getting that to exit off the south Jersey coast which is where most models had it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Just reminds me again of why the NAM can not even be trusted for convection. Failed to get a massive squall line right that has been ongoing since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 3:00 PM, Brian5671 said: Going to have a hard time getting that to exit off the south Jersey coast which is where most models had it.... The greatest pressure falls are currently to the SE of the low so it could make it. It has more or less the whole state of PA to get to south Jersey. Also we might get some redevelopment as the coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif Notice the pressure falls off NJ. The low looks to jump from cny to NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 2:55 PM, YanksFan27 said: This was supposed to be a major noreaster and severe weather producer. Not everyone here only gets excited over snow Yeah but we always looked to be too far north to get into the severe weather. Was just going to be a rain and wind producer. And like jetski said severe weather threats almost never pan out. Someone always gets shafted and often times we get the best severe weather when we're not in a watch and its not a huge threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 3:06 PM, ny747pilot said: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif Notice the pressure falls off NJ. The low looks to jump from cny to NJ coast. Yeah I think that's part of the reason why rainfall totals have been forcasted lower to the northwest, there will be a screw zone that gets "jumped" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 3:07 PM, Plfdwxdude said: Yeah but we always looked to be too far north to get into the severe weather. Was just going to be a rain and wind producer. And like jetski said severe weather threats almost never pan out. Someone always gets shafted and often times we get the best severe weather when we're not in a watch and its not a huge threat. I was never that excited about the severe weather aspect but I want my monsoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 2:59 PM, YanksFan27 said: No, you don't understand. This is what the 12z NAM had for this hour. Exactly 11AM Yes True, but the second part of the rain shield is over western NJ there and that is nowhere near the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Small "pocket" of SBCAPE in central PA. Maybe that can build and get in here this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 2:56 PM, YanksFan27 said: Starting to wonder how far south the low is going to make it. So far it's moved due east in the past 3 hours. Maybe a tad southeast of east Yea that bubbling towards the Delmarva has me worried for a jump, next few hours will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 3:08 PM, user13 said: Yes True, but the second part of the rain shield is over western NJ there and that is nowhere near the case. I know, was saying how the 12z NAM didn't have a good handle on the current conditions. And by not a good handle I mean no handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Heaviest rain of the day so far For those interested, here is the 12z 4k NAM totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 3:10 PM, YanksFan27 said: Small "pocket" of SBCAPE in central PA. Maybe that can build and get in here this afternoon. The warm front looks like it's past that location. If you want severe, you have to not want the low off the Delmarva to develop too much, as that would stop the progression of the warm front. The cooler waters near us will try to hang up the front as well. It's going to be tough getting it through here, which is why I'm thinking that what storms do develop over PA weaken when they arrive here to showers, maybe a rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Craziness in Mdtown. Looks like a monsoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Anyone a few miles west of NYC in Jersey? The sun should be coming out there in the next 30 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 .41" of rain so far up this way... Very cool 57F in Mid June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 We're right on the edge of the really strong shear. If we could get 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE in here we might be in business. Philly forum is reporting lots of sun now in Central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 On 6/13/2013 at 3:15 PM, jm1220 said: The warm front looks like it's past that location. If you want severe, you have to not want the low off the Delmarva to develop too much, as that would stop the progression of the warm front. The cooler waters near us will try to hang up the front as well. It's going to be tough getting it through here, which is why I'm thinking that what storms do develop over PA weaken when they arrive here to showers, maybe a rumble of thunder. Yes I agreed I'm hopping the primary holds on, with the unexpected clearing headed our way it should help the warm front explode northward much more rapidly. - but if it redevelops that will probably keep the low clouds around up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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