Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well, it's been reasonably quiet svr wise up here in Michiana but all signs point to a doozy tomorrow. Will that be tornadic supercells or a strong derecho? Hi-res models have varied. I guess you just have to pay your money and take your choice. The June 2012 derecho spent its fury just slightly south of me as it passed by, but Patrick, if you are chasing, stay far away from any trees and powerlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 lower 70's DP's reaching into central IL via OBSWe had a dp of 72 during the 5pm newsSent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I really like the high end wind threat tomorrow but i'm just not seeing much in the way of twisters outside a modest threat for areas further east along the warm front. When the convection goes up across IA/IL tomorrow, it's going to get messy really quick and I'm not sure any discrete cells will have much rooms before quickly organizing into a classic comma complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'll gladly burn tonight for tomorrow's much higher potential. totally. i had anticipated multiple rounds tonight. if we are limited to little but an elevated complex well north ( ) tomorrow could be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 new day 1 removes the mod risk (which was doing essentially nothing) and pulls the slight risk back northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think there is a chance that this thing dives south if a very large cold pool develops. Something to watch for those south of 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I really like the high end wind threat tomorrow but i'm just not seeing much in the way of twisters outside a modest threat for areas further east along the warm front. When the convection goes up across IA/IL tomorrow, it's going to get messy really quick and I'm not sure any discrete cells will have much rooms before quickly organizing into a classic comma complex. There is some really good low level shear over IA/IL, I don't think it will go linear that quickly, if it doesn't there will be a decent tornado potential with that stuff, especially along/near the warm front that might intersect LOT's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think there is a chance that this thing dives south if a very large cold pool develops. Something to watch for those south of 70. Mean flow forecasted argues against this prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well, it's been reasonably quiet svr wise up here in Michiana but all signs point to a doozy tomorrow. Will that be tornadic supercells or a strong derecho? Hi-res models have varied. I guess you just have to pay your money and take your choice. The June 2012 derecho spent its fury just slightly south of me as it passed by, but Patrick, if you are chasing, stay far away from any trees and powerlines. A better view of the 4 km NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This would pretty much keep the central and southern areas of the moderate risk area high and dry. Might see some changes at 2AM. I would suspect a northward shift in both the slight and moderate risk areas. A supercell or two could tag along on the southern end. Could also be a derecho with multiple embedded rotating cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Mean flow forecasted argues against this prospect. I didn't say it was a good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 A better view of the 4 km NAM... I swear (and I know it's not) that looks like a cut and paste job to try and make things look nasty and dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 A better view of the 4 km NAM... Will be interesting to see if the southern end of that line becomes more developed. If so, the moderate risk area looks OK. If not, it would need to be adjusted north at least some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 new day 1 removes the mod risk (which was doing essentially nothing) and pulls the slight risk back northwest. The previous moderate risk was for higher wind probs for derecho potential with the evolving WY/SD MCS. So it wasn't supposed to be doing anything yet. Obviously they don't think as highly of that threat now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The previous moderate risk was for higher wind probs for derecho potential with the evolving WY/SD MCS. So it wasn't supposed to be doing anything yet. Obviously they don't think as highly of that threat now though. Thoughts on tomorrow Joe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Some new convection starting to fire south of minneapolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think there is a chance that this thing dives south if a very large cold pool develops. Something to watch for those south of 70. Or do you hope there is a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Thoughts on tomorrow Joe?This is what I posted elsewhere this afternoon...If any complex develops this afternoon/evening, it will be from the wave currently across IA/MO...with the associated activity already pushing through W. IL. So pretty much every short term model that shows it would be several hours too slow...Which is the norm. Given sig capping in place, any upscale growth most likely wouldn't occur until activity pushes down into E. IL/IN/NW. KY. 50/50 shot nothing interesting comes of this activity or you get a decent MCS in the OV. Then tonight you have a shot at some elevated activity around/north of the warm front...Along with the MCS that gets going in SD. If the SD MCS is sustained, it likely pushes through MN/N. IA/WI/N. IL early in the day, with a shot it brushes Alek with a hit to the north. This is followed by the main show during the afternoon and evening in IL (I-88/80 and south)/IN/OH/S. MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Or do you hope there is a chance? It would still probably go east of me but it seems to happen a lot, but maybe in a weaker flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yummy http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_3kmconv2.php Wow..Big ole ouch.. Decent cell near here on that. Would make for a long evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 update via LOT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL837 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013.DISCUSSION...834 PM CDTA FEW THOUGHTS REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERNIGHT AND THEMODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IOWA EAST TOWARDSIOWA CITY...THEN LOSES ITS DEFINITION SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRALILLINOIS. LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOOUR WEST...BUT AS A 20Z SOUNDING OUT OF DVN SHOWED...A STRONG CAP ISIN PLACE WITH 825MB TEMPS AROUND 21C. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATESTHE THE CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THEEVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH THAT SAID....THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHERTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. FOCUS TURNSOUT TO THE WEST TONIGHT WHERE A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TODEVELOP WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER CENTRALNEBRASKA...AND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST OVER THEMID MISSOURI VALLEY. DESPITE THE FOCUS BEING WELL OFF TO OURWEST...THERE IS SOME ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT SO CANT RULE OUTSOMETHING TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE WARMFRONT AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TOBE LOW AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE LLJ. WITH THAT INMIND...LOWERED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHTHOURS AND FEEL THEY MAY STILL BE ON THE HIGH END. CONVECTIVEALLOWING MODELS STILL SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING AT THE NOSE OF THELLJ TONIGHT...AND BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW POSSIBLY MOVING INTONORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...BUT MORE LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE STATELINE. EITHER WAY...LLJ IS VEERING AND WEAKENING BY THAT TIME SOCONVECTION SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE.THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO CARRY US UNDER A MODERATERISK WEDNESDAY AND THIS SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. APPEARS WE WILL BEUNDER A PRETTY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW AS A COUPLED JET SETS UPWITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERNILLINOIS. MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVEMOVING INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TOMORROW WILLPROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA TO HELP WEAKEN THE CAP.THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY JUST SOUTHOF MLI...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOW TRACK ANDRESULTING SEVERE THREAT MAY TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. SOMEMODELS ALSO INDICATE THE LOW DEEPENING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOONWITH 2-4MB PRESSURE FALLS OVERSPREADING AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. THISWILL ONLY HELP TO ENHANCE WHAT ALREADY LOOKS TO BE PRETTYSTRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY TOMORROW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOMORROW ISALSO FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG. ALL SAID THERE IS CONCERN FORDISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WHOLE GAMUTOF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND QUITEPOSSIBLY TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A LINEWITH THE MAIN THREAT TURNING BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH QLCSTORNADOES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN. HOW QUICKLY WE TRANSITION FROMDISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO A LINEAR MCS IS UNCERTAIN. INTERESTING TONOTE THAT ONE OF THE TOP CIPS ANALOGS IS JUNE 05 2010 WHICH DID HAVEDISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES LATER INTO THE EVENING.DEUBELBEISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yeah, LOT essentially punting until later Wed which is looking more and more like the heart of Chicagoland could be ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yeah, LOT essentially punting until later Wed which is looking more and more like the heart of Chicagoland could be ground zero yeah...just told my friend that that makes things all the more potentially dangerous tomorrow around here if that's the case for tonight and tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 0z NAM right within the current cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 12km NAM is suffering from issues with respect to helicity especially 0-1km helicity. I don't see the helicity being this low especially along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 As if this setup didn't look dangerous enough (this has a real good chance of getting pretty bad, folks), as someone noted, tomorrow night is game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals at the Madhouse. The wx is going to be the last thing on the collective mind of Chicago tomorrow, not to mention the standing room only crowd at the game and all the packed bars in the city and burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 0z NAM just erupts over Chicago during the afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 12km NAM is suffering from issues with respect to helicity especially 0-1km helicity. I don't see the helicity being this low especially along the warm front. also if LOT is correct about the low deepening more than expected that could back the winds more as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 beyond a comma head....more like quotation mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 probably going to ride the entire event out tomorrow from the office so I can enjoy the wide open west view from a few hundred feet up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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