hm8 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yummy http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_3kmconv2.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yummy http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_3kmconv2.php Looks like a nasty derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yummy http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_3kmconv2.php Geez...that thing is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Looks like a nasty derecho. WOW! That looks like the inland hurricane of May 2009 did with the eye in the comma head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yummy http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_3kmconv2.php That would be quite a high end event if verified, that being said so far it looks to be pretty accurate with respect to how things have evolved in the first 9 hours of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 The more I look at it, the more this setup resembles 6/5/10. Some of the sfc/upper air similarities are pretty uncanny actually. If nothing else perhaps it's an indication that there's a fine line between primarily a damaging wind event and a significant tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 So I see i'm smack dab in a moderate risk tomorrow. Should be a fun day. Wasn't expecting the rain tonight that i'm about to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Looks like a nasty derecho. This would pretty much keep the central and southern areas of the moderate risk area high and dry. Might see some changes at 2AM. I would suspect a northward shift in both the slight and moderate risk areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yummy http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_3kmconv2.php My response to this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 My response to this: This was my response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 PSumner calling bust for central Indiana. Awesome. IND better pull POPs as the all clear has been declared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 This was my response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 PSumner calling bust for central Indiana. Awesome. IND better pull POPs as the all clear has been declared. I was simply referring to the computer model which clearly shows the worst of the line north of I70. (Which isn't out of the realm of possibility) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I was simply referring to the computer model which clearly shows the worst of the line north of I70. (Which isn't out of the realm of possibility) It is the only model that is that far north, I think hm8 was posting it for the sake of showing the potential the setup has, not saying that is what will happen and that the risk needs to be shifted per one model. Unless we see a completely dramatic shift northward on all models at 00z, I don't expect any major changes for the 2am outlook, any changes would be merely cosmetic. Other than whether or not they want to go 45% or 60% for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 that wrf has an absolute monster cell into chicago before going linear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It is the only model that is that far north, I think hm8 was posting it for the sake of showing the potential the setup has, not saying that is what will happen and that the risk needs to be shifted per one model. Unless we see a completely dramatic shift northward on all models at 00z, I don't expect any major changes for the 2am outlook, any changes would be merely cosmetic. Other than whether or not they want to go 45% or 60% for wind. ARW was similar as was 18 4km nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 that wrf has an absolute monster cell into chicago before going linear Image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 ARW was similar as was 18 4km nam Similar in evolution yes, but not quite that far north, that being said there has been a slight northward trend through the day, Not too significant but noticable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 ARW was similar as was 18 4km nam Wagons north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow thanks. What a nightmare senario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Similar in evolution yes, but not quite that far north, that being said there has been a slight northward trend through the day, Not too significant but noticable. agree...probably related to a trend towards a more quiet overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wagons north. laughed. you still look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wagons north. heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Is that a Geos surprise and possibly a Kenosha kicker?!? Too much heat and a sick sleepless newborn have me in a haze...but Im getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It is the only model that is that far north, I think hm8 was posting it for the sake of showing the potential the setup has, not saying that is what will happen and that the risk needs to be shifted per one model. Unless we see a completely dramatic shift northward on all models at 00z, I don't expect any major changes for the 2am outlook, any changes would be merely cosmetic. Other than whether or not they want to go 45% or 60% for wind. I was thinking about that as well. The potential derecho has some amazing parameters to not only sustain it, but keep it violent for a long period of time (well past the OHV). With the threat of a derecho event possibly containing 70-85 knot winds and supercells with extremely potent downbursts in a populated region, I'd hazard a guess that the SPC would at least have to think for a second or two on whether or not to issue a 60% hatched for wind tomorrow. Regardless, Im happy for all of you GL/OV guys! Finally getting your share of the severe season. If I'm here tomorrow posting radar images, thats a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 agree...probably related to a trend towards a more quiet overnight I'll gladly burn tonight for tomorrow's much higher potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Really considering take a trip north tomorrow to get ahead of this thing. Probably not the smartest idea but I haven't personally felt the power of a derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 laughed. you still look good Yep. LAF may not be in the center of the action, but I think we'll get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 lower 70's DP's reaching into central IL via OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.