Indystorm Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Yeah, this event is starting to occur a bit sooner than I expected, although I agree with Alek that MN and IA will be the place to watch for the main show overnight. This evening may be the appetizer. Was a bit surprised to see these storms firing in northern IL when SPC was initially concerned for surface development and a possible watch downstate in IL a bit earlier this afternoon. Of course these storms now are probably elevated. Quarter inch hail report at Davis Junction in Ogle County IL from these developing cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 It has become noticeably more humid in just the last 10 minutes....southerly breeze kickin' more than it has all day....sun blazing as dark clouds roll in from the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Leaving work. Going to drift west to Batavia and see what happens, nice increase in lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 LOT's latest AFD seems to imply a few chances at some storms (even severe) tonight/overnight/tomorrow morning...before the main show tomorrow night, which they expect the greatest severe threat to be along and south of a Dixon-Chicago line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 In some ways days like tomorrow are more dangerous than most tornado days. There is the potential for tornadoes with discrete cells or whatever forms within the line, which usually affect small areas, but then there's also what may be high-end damaging straight line wind potential for a much larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 3CK (Lake in the Hills Airport) - looking west, south and southeast at some nice afternoon zippage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 got a really nice view of towers going up from my office. nice early initiation out there. looks like the southwest portion of LOT's CWA could see quite a few rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 LOT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS APPEARING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH VARYING MODES OF CONVECTION. HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE MORE FAVORED THAN THE RUN OF THE MILL STRONG WINDS/GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Thunder picking up here, got some cool looking clouds to my NW as the storms slide this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Lets see what happens... Had to frantically finish mowing my lawn. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL325 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013ILZ008-010>013-112100-DE KALB IL-DUPAGE IL-KANE IL-LEE IL-OGLE IL-325 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATEDSTRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES NORTHWESTOF MALTA TO SYCAMORE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.NICKEL SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVYDOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...KANE COUNTY COUGARS BALLPARK...NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY...I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 82 AND 108.I-39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 101 AND 110. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 beautiful pics guys! starting to see the lower levels purcalate a lot more over the last 5 to 10 minutes around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 lake breeze convegence go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 micro storm downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I was checking the 12z NAM for Toledo, Ohio temp profile and parameters tomorrow. There is close to 2000 CAPE with a 0-6km shear of nearly 80 knots at 18z (2:00PM) tomorrow. Storm relative helicity is about 200m2/s2. EHI in northwest Ohio is up to 6. That 80 knots is insane stuff. I would tend to think the 0-6km shear (and possibly helicity) may decrease by some amount by the time convection fires. I think anything that goes super cellular tomorrow afternoon will definitely be tornadic in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 minor bow forming on the western flank....constant distant rumbles ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Love it when there's two pics of the same storm clouds... A la ChiStorm and kevlon there Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Perhaps, although the updraft helicity product from the WRF suggests the tornado threat would be high enough for a tornado watch with very high wind probs, also, given the low level shear, the derecho itself (if it does develop) may be more tornado friendly than some others we have seen. 0-3 km shear are forecast to be favorably normal to whatever gust front may develop. The actual magnitude itself (NAM and GFS) would be just below the preferred value for development of mesovortices on the leading edge. Of course these things can changed with subtle shifts in the environment during the day tomorrow. 0-1 km shear would suggest a few significant tornadoes are possible, especially near the IN border between 00 and 06z. Probably a long winded way to say, the tornado threat looks about normal for your average derecho forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 can I lock this in? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam-hires/18/nam-hires_namer_033_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I think anything that goes super cellular tomorrow afternoon will definitely be tornadic in this area I think that 80 knots was a bit weird. The NAM forecast for 15z, 21z, and 00z didn't have that. Nevertheless, the warm front area could be a hot spot for a couple of tornadoes, and that could be near Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Alek, that image looks more supercellular to me than the average derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 can I lock this in? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam-hires/18/nam-hires_namer_033_sim_reflectivity.gif Damn Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 can I lock this in? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam-hires/18/nam-hires_namer_033_sim_reflectivity.gif I don't know if you guys thought about this, but Stanley Cup game 1 will be going on in Chicago at 00z, and perhaps some bad weather will be going on, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I can see the towers really going up to the west. Has gotten a lot more humid here since 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 can I lock this in? I really love what it shows along the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I think that 80 knots was a bit weird. The NAM forecast for 15z, 21z, and 00z didn't have that. Nevertheless, the warm front area could be a hot spot for a couple of tornadoes, and that could be near Toledo. NAM is definitely the higher end of guidance, but GFS and ECMWF both are 50+ kt 0-6 km as well. Nothing to scoff at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 can I lock this in? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam-hires/18/nam-hires_namer_033_sim_reflectivity.gif I noticed this on the PSU site with multiple discrete warm-frontal cells, would be quite the multi-faceted severe event if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 UGH. There was time in my younger years where I used to look forward to these events. Then last year's derecho happened at the end of June. Our neighbor's tree landed on our deck, we were without power for a week, and temps were in the upper 90's that whole week! Since then I have huge anxiety whenever I hear about pending severe events, especially one like this that sounds exactly the same as that one. Be careful what you wish for, guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Alek, that image looks more supercellular to me than the average derecho. So does the 12z WRF-NMM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 can I lock this in? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam-hires/18/nam-hires_namer_033_sim_reflectivity.gif looks like something Al Gore would put on the cover of one of his books...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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