Chargers09 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I think in regards to any expansion of the moderate risk into Michigan the furthest I would feel comfortable going is up to 94. GRR has that in their AFD for sig. severe. All depends on the evolution of the MCS tonight, and how far east it goes, where it lays down boundaries, and how it affects the warm front's progression. Probably going to get the northern end of any derecho, so who knows. Looks better for IN/OH/IL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I was checking the 12z NAM for Toledo, Ohio temp profile and parameters tomorrow. There is close to 2000 CAPE with a 0-6km shear of nearly 80 knots at 18z (2:00PM) tomorrow. Storm relative helicity is about 200m2/s2. EHI in northwest Ohio is up to 6. That 80 knots is insane stuff. I would tend to think the 0-6km shear (and possibly helicity) may decrease by some amount by the time convection fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Yeah some stupid high shear numbers tomorrow for sure. Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 MKX just put out this graphic for a possible Derecho/MCS tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Hey guys...what prompted such a dramatic shift with the latest day 2 outlook??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I wonder if we will see our first PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch in a couple years tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Certainly looks good for the areas outlined by SPC. Ontario looks like it will miss out except maybe for the Windsor-Essex area. Depending on how things evolve tonight I may make the drive down to there to try and get a few good shots of the system's brief encounter with Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 classic MKE getting cute with timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 18Z RAP staying stubborn with some type of bowing structure going through LOT tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 18Z RAP staying stubborn with some type of bowing structure going through LOT tonight LOT aviation update mentions a complex after midnight and another around noon tomorrow. The evening event will probably be south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Skilling sipping this on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 cells firing to my south and looks like something trying to pop just west of Rockford... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 IWX going with "some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds" or "some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds" in their zones for tomorrow afternoon and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Can probably start throwing out the "D" word with some confidence...well, as much as you can have the day before I guess. It's more a question of where (how quickly things congeal and how far north) than if, imo. Love these types of setups where areas sw stay capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 cells firing to my south and looks like something trying to pop just west of Rockford... super elevated junk also, lol @ the graphic Tom is using for CAPE these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Can probably start throwing out the "D" word with some confidence...well, as much as you can have the day before I guess. It's more a question of where (how quickly things congeal and how far north) than if, imo. Love these types of setups where areas sw stay capped. yeah, it's going to happen for you guys. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yeah, it's going to happen for you guys. Lock it in. lol, nothing is assured with these set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 super elevated junk also, lol @ the graphic Tom is using for CAPE these days. yeah....cap is weakening west of Rockford though FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 lol, nothing is assured with these set ups. Going to be a little disappointing if we get "skipped" with like 40 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 lol, nothing is assured with these set ups. IDK dude, you look about as prime as prime gets with rooms for wobbles either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yeah....cap is weakening west of Rockford though FWIW We'll probably see crappy elevated storms fire NW to SE along the warm front for much of the evening...doubt any of it organized into anything of note. We'll have to watch further upstream into S. MN for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Going to be a little disappointing if we get "skipped" with like 40 mph winds. Ha, yeah. IDK dude, you look about as prime as prime gets with rooms for wobbles either way. Sure. But just saying they don't always go as scripted. That being said, I'm excited for our prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 MKE would point the highest risk of severe over SWMI/Northern IN... No one knows but it's got potential all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I wonder if we will see our first PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch in a couple years tomorrow? Perhaps, although the updraft helicity product from the WRF suggests the tornado threat would be high enough for a tornado watch with very high wind probs, also, given the low level shear, the derecho itself (if it does develop) may be more tornado friendly than some others we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Nice read from Gil Sebenste. Really hitting the wind threat by going with 60-100 mph straight line winds. http://weather.admin.niu.edu/forecast.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 We'll probably see crappy elevated storms fire NW to SE along the warm front for much of the evening...doubt any of it organized into anything of note. We'll have to watch further upstream into S. MN for that. starting to look a little better then just garbage at the moment....really blowing up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 18z NAM/RAP differ on exact placement/strength with the sfc low as we get into tomorrow morning. The RAP has it down to 1000mb about to pass over OAX at 12z tomorrow morning where the NAM is has it weather (1004mb) and further south then tracks along the IA/MO border. This NAM run would def be a 1-80/central IL/LAF hit and keep northeast IL in the cool lake breeze air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Dtx and saying the warm front only makes it to the state border but areas south of a line from Jackson to Detroit have the best shot at severe +enhanced tornado risk due to proximity to front Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Heading to work...Nice view of the anvil from activity to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Nearly 70dbz aloft SSE of RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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