A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 9Z RAP had a bowing structure moving through LOT around 21Z this evening I'm feeling increasingly confident about Wednesday but this evening is the wild card for our region...does look like the threat is better than I initially thought. New Day 1 looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 All systems look to be a go in IA/IL/OH/IN. I still believe the SPC is too bullish with things up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'm feeling increasingly confident about Wednesday but this evening is the wild card for our region...does look like the threat is better than I initially thought. New Day 1 looks pretty good. yeah...tomorrow looks ripe... nice little snippet from DVN as well... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013 WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP ACRS THE AREA AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DIGS EASTWARD ACRS IA ALONG NORTHERN FRINGE OF A HIGH CAPE/ POTENTIALLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT BLEEDS OUT OF TUE NIGHT AND LINGERS ACRS THE CWA WED MORNING IN THE FORM OF AN ONGOING MCS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS...BUT CURRENT SIGNALS ARE THAT THIS WILL DECAY AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION-AIR MASS RELOADING. IF SFC TEMPS CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 70 DPTS...RESULTANT 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE PLENTY FOR EXPECTED BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60 KTS IN VIEW OF APPROACHING SFC LOW AND ATTACHED WARM FRONT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MANY 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY SOME LK MI FETCH FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY LAY OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY WED AFTERNOON...AND BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SUPER-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. IF WE GET THE ABOVE MENTIONED CAPES AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST APPROACHES...ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING SUPERCELLS. THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR RIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CWA AGAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 AFTER 20Z WED. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY THEN EVOLVE INTO A LARGE BOW ECHO OR A COUPLE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF IL LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TAKING OVER AS THE MAIN WIDESPREAD THREAT. CURRENTLY PROGGED THTA-E LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT 70-85+ MPH WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN DVN CWA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF IL WED EVENING. AGREE WITH ASSESSMENT THAT ONGOING SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS IF ALL THESE LOOMING PARAMETERS STILL SEEM WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD. HIGH TEMPS A SECONDARY CONCERN AND A CHALLENGE WITH BOUNDARIES...MORNING DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON RECOVERY SCENARIOS BUT MAY PLAY ON THE WARMER SIDE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA AFTER 03Z THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Michigan is not really that far behind in severe reports compared to some states. There are some pockets with few severe reports (see NE IN/NW OH) but assuming this is true and not because of lack of spotters, etc, that's just how it goes sometimes. Severe reports through June 9: IL: 262 KY: 211 IN: 144 WI: 127 MI: 125 OH: 99 I've had approximately 3 days with lightning in the last two months... though after tomorrow that hole over NWOH/NEIN should be a little better. TOL's had a brutally boring year this year too, but it happens. Can't wait to see the 1730z update today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 12z RAP much more bullish on some big storms this evening in northern IL. Will also be interesting to see if we get some big time elevated supercells later tonight once the LLJ gets going with the amount of shear in place as instability increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 12z RAP much more bullish on some big storms this evening in northern IL. energy over southwest MN remains fairly organized on visible. and check the sweet train of MCS across the area on the 12z NAM and hi-res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 9Z SREF with some silly widespread derecho probs for tomorrow afternoon evening....will see how things transpire...pump certainly will be primed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Two things look to change our weather here across the southern half of lower Michigan. If showers and storms hold off (as once was expected) today/tonight across IN/IL, the warm front will have no issues pushing northward through the area, which is good for tomorrow's activity as the derecho/mcs would likely follow the warm front right into the region giving the northern end of the slight risk (grand rapids to flint) a justified higher probability for severe weather tomorrow evening... HOWEVER... Gotta love the "however"... lol The butterfly effect could change our entire forecast for tomorrow while significantly reducing our severe weather chances except south of the MI/IN/OH state line (like usual). If storms develop over IN/IL today across the warm front, the front would likely stagger south or be slow to push north leaving several outflow boundaries along the front that was expected to be situated much further north over SWMI. That would imply the derecho/mcs to ride along the warm front tomorrow then nose diving into northern Indiana and Ohio completely missing Michigan all together (except for blow-off cloud cover and rain). I believe the latter half of my discussion is looking more likely, but only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 12z RAP much more bullish on some big storms this evening in northern IL. Will also be interesting to see if we get some big time elevated supercells later tonight once the LLJ gets going with the amount of shear in place as instability increases. HRRR also developes the energy in MN into a weak line through the metro this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Best setup of the year tomorrow. Will be nice to get severe weather since we have yet to see anything of significance yet this year. I think the tornado threat in the early afternoon looks pretty darn good for this area. Warm front traveling super cells are the best producers here easily. Busy day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 energy over southwest MN remains fairly organized on visible. and check the sweet train of MCS across the area on the 12z NAM and hi-res where o where shall the boundary from left overs lie tomorrow....I-80 seemed to be the thought late last night....any changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 where o where shall the boundary from left overs lie tomorrow....I-80 seemed to be the thought late last night....any changes? My current thinking is we'll see a rather weak complex roll through mid evening, with another larger MCS originating overnight over southern MN and pusing SE into north central IL during the early morning hours. Liking a prolonged lull during peak heating. I80 sill looks prime but threat certainly extends all the way to WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 My current thinking is we'll see a rather weak complex roll through mid evening, with another larger MCS originating overnight over southern MN and pusing SE into north central IL during the early morning hours. Liking a prolonged lull during peak heating. I80 sill looks prime but threat certainly extends all the way to WI. thanks! yeah no doubt....was looking for a focus of initiation tomorrow afternoon/evening....clearly we'll have to wait and see for more precision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 GRR knows what I'm talking about. .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013 I COORDINATED THE SEVERE RISK FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GREG (WHO IS DOING THE 1730Z OUTLOOK) TO BRING THE 30% RISK FARTHER SOUTH... TO NEAR I-94 INSTEAD OF NEAR I-96 AS IT CURRENTLY IS. HE INDICATED HE WOULD LIKELY HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY BUT IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. HE FARTHER INDICATED HE STILL BELIEVES THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 94. SINCE THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA IT WOULD SEEM TO ME THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE TOO. HOWEVER AS ALWAYS... WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP TOMORROW TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION OF THE SEVERE STORMS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013 I ALLOWED THE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE SINCE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THAT IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST NAM (12Z/11TH) TELLS ME OUR SEVERE STORM THREAT WOULD MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AS THAT IS WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF 850 CONVERGENCE AND 300 DIVERGENCE SHOWS THE BEST FORCING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 thanks! yeah no doubt....was looking for a focus of initiation tomorrow afternoon/evening....clearly we'll have to wait and see for more precision. I think the place to watch for initial discrete convection will be just northeast of the sfc low or a bit further east along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I don't know. Maybe I'll have time to drive to the Indiana border tomorrow if it looks good down there. Just don't know if overnight convection will push the boundary so far south as to be totally out of range. Northern Indiana is as far south as I'm willing to drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I think the place to watch for initial discrete convection will be just northeast of the sfc low or a bit further east along the front. Thanks Matt...looks like a nice buffet of various severe aspects to be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 cell/cluster in Iowa keeps trucking along despite a capped environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 GRR knows what I'm talking about. .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013 I COORDINATED THE SEVERE RISK FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GREG (WHO IS DOING THE 1730Z OUTLOOK) TO BRING THE 30% RISK FARTHER SOUTH... TO NEAR I-94 INSTEAD OF NEAR I-96 AS IT CURRENTLY IS. HE INDICATED HE WOULD LIKELY HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY BUT IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. HE FARTHER INDICATED HE STILL BELIEVES THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 94. SINCE THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA IT WOULD SEEM TO ME THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE TOO. HOWEVER AS ALWAYS... WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP TOMORROW TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION OF THE SEVERE STORMS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013 I ALLOWED THE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE SINCE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THAT IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST NAM (12Z/11TH) TELLS ME OUR SEVERE STORM THREAT WOULD MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AS THAT IS WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF 850 CONVERGENCE AND 300 DIVERGENCE SHOWS THE BEST FORCING. Can't wait to see the day2 update after reading this. Unfortunately I leave for work just before it comes out so won't see it until this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 GRR knows what I'm talking about. .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013 I COORDINATED THE SEVERE RISK FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GREG (WHO IS DOING THE 1730Z OUTLOOK) TO BRING THE 30% RISK FARTHER SOUTH... TO NEAR I-94 INSTEAD OF NEAR I-96 AS IT CURRENTLY IS. HE INDICATED HE WOULD LIKELY HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY BUT IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. HE FARTHER INDICATED HE STILL BELIEVES THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 94. SINCE THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA IT WOULD SEEM TO ME THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE TOO. HOWEVER AS ALWAYS... WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP TOMORROW TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION OF THE SEVERE STORMS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013 I ALLOWED THE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE SINCE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THAT IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST NAM (12Z/11TH) TELLS ME OUR SEVERE STORM THREAT WOULD MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AS THAT IS WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF 850 CONVERGENCE AND 300 DIVERGENCE SHOWS THE BEST FORCING. GRR has it right. This is mostly an IA/IL/OH/IN event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 GRR has it right. This is mostly an IA/IL/OH/IN event. Yeah... What's new? ATLEAST we will be close right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 New day 1 with a moderate area just west of subforum. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/MID MO VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE N CNTRL HIGH PLNS E INTO THE MID MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE SRN RCKYS INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS WILL EXPAND EWD THIS PERIOD IN WAKE OF UPR IMPULSE THAT CROSSED THE TN VLY YESTERDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLNS THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING E AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE TO REACH SD/NEB EARLY WED. GIVEN THE ABOVE PATTERN...EXPECT STOUT EML...WELL-DEPICTED IN THE MORNING RAOB DATA...TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TNGT FROM THE N CNTRL HI PLNS EWD INTO MID-MS/LWR OH VLYS. AT THE SFC...CNTRL HIGH PLNS LEE LOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STNRY TODAY BEFORE ADVANCING E ACROSS SRN NEB TNGT AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH. A CORRIDOR OF FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW-LVL ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST N OF A W-E FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW INTO MID-MS VLY. COMBINATION OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...SFC HEATING...AND APPROACHING UPR TROUGH LIKELY WILL LEAD TO STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN OVER PARTS OF ERN WY AND WRN SD. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A SVR MCS THAT MOVES GENERALLY E ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE EML CAP AND ALONG LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS THROUGH EARLY WED. IN THE MEANTIME...SCTD AREAS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR DIURNAL STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE EAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN ADDITION...WDLY SCTD ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL MAY OCCUR EARLY WED IN STRENGTHENING WAA ZONE ON NE FRINGE OF THE EML OVER THE OH VLY. ...N CNTRL HIGH PLNS TO MID MS VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED... LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS SD...NRN NEB...ERN WY...AND SE MT TODAY IN ELY UPSLOPE FLOW N OF STALLED FRONT/LEE LOW. COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING AND INCREASING UPR LVL DIVERGENCE/DCVA WITH APPROACH OF UT UPR VORT...SETUP WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG LEE TROUGH AND BY MID TO LATE AFTN. COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ AND 40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR LIKELY WILL YIELD SCTD SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN SW SD...NE WY...AND NW NEB. GIVEN VERY DEEP/STRONG EML...PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY MID/UPR-LVL FLOW...AND MOIST/ELY LOW-LVL FLOW...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A SVR FORWARD-PROPAGATING/ POSSIBLE DERECHO-PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. SUCH A SYSTEM COULD EXTEND A RISK FOR SVR WIND...HAIL..AND ISOLD TORNADOES E INTO NE NEB/NW A/SE SD AREA BY 12Z WED. FARTHER E...SMALLER...SOMEWHAT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS/STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF IL/IND/OH IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON NERN FRINGE OF EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 12z NMM blows up an absolutely textbook looking MCS tomorrow evening with a WAA wing running along I80 in IL and a bowing line pushing SE across north central IL. However it does handle this evenings activity somewhat oddly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 12z SPC WRF develops the IA storms and runs them through LAF and southward this evening...has tomorrow afternoon storms for southern WI and northern IL...then the big show for tomorrow night looks to be mainly I-80 and south. Just one model's take, we shall see. Tonight Tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 New day 1 with a moderate area just west of subforum. Could ride the warm front in the subforum later, and at leas the SPC WRF wants to reinvigorate the convection again tomorrow afternoon/evening along the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 12z SPC WRF develops the IA storms and runs them through LAF and southward this evening...has tomorrow afternoon storms for southern WI and northern IL...then the big show for tomorrow night looks to be mainly I-80 and south. Just one model's take, we shall see. Tonight refd_1000m_f11.gif Tomorrow night refd_1000m_f36.gif not sure we see the IA storms develope like that (although the NMM does something similar), also not sure any model has a good grasp on the evolution of tonights plains MCS but in general, I think I80 south for the main show remains the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 12z SPC WRF develops the IA storms and runs them through LAF and southward this evening...has tomorrow afternoon storms for southern WI and northern IL...then the big show for tomorrow night looks to be mainly I-80 and south. Just one model's take, we shall see. Max updraft helicity at 36 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Max updraft helicity at 36 hours: This all looks much more interesting than the 56/56 rain I have out the WFO window right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 mod risk from Chicago south into most of IN/OH…huge 45% wind risk. SPC biting hard on the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 SPC moderate risk upgrade image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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