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Severe Threat June 11-13


Hoosier

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That's local to me - a house trailer was pushed into a tree, trapping the occupant. The fire departments have just left the scene, and it sounds like the occupant was fine; the house trailer, not so much.

 

Max winds in that area might have reached 70 mph with the gust front, and that part of the squall line was responsible for the tornado warnings in Wood and Sandusky counties. Overall, this system was much weaker than the derecho of 6/29/12 (thank God!).

Yup I got 70 in Risingsun. Pretty strong winds and some branches and small trees took a beating. It was fast though, maybe 1 minute of strong winds tops

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Had a fun day chasing in northern IL and southern WI today. Followed a nice mesovortex for awhile, and saw several wall clouds among many other supercell structures. Not a bad chase, 6 hours total, and I got sushi and ice cream mid-way. Even got a little mesovortex on the wall back in southern WI.

 

Watching that derecho in Ohio, wow!

 

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/ne3compflash.html

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Took long enough...but here it comes.

 

screenshot20130612at843.png

 

I just got back from an overturned semi in southern Huntington Co. The apex of the bow had some serious winds, with many trees and power lines down across the southern half of the county.

 

 

It was mainly a heavy rain event locally. A few gusts topping 30 mph but generally quiet. Might have had a wall cloud for a shot bit but it dissipated before we could confirm it was rotating. I shot some video with my GoPro I can check tomorrow and maybe pull off an image.

 

I was spotting the cell earlier in the evening that was previously tornado warned around Winamac as it crossed southern Whitley Co. We also saw a wall cloud on that storm, but it was getting dark and by the time I got close enough to see if it was rotating, it was dissipating.

 

By the way, good job cyclone and Chi Storm on the pics and videos. Some very nice shots. Midwest severe at its finest.

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Had a fun day chasing in northern IL and southern WI today. Followed a nice mesovortex for awhile, and saw several wall clouds among many other supercell structures. Not a bad chase, 6 hours total, and I got sushi and ice cream mid-way. Even got a little mesovortex on the wall back in southern WI.

 

Watching that derecho in Ohio, wow!

 

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/ne3compflash.html

You can see clearly at 11:23 when the top of the line in Wood County does that little wisp. That's what spawned the tornado and the worst of the wind damage. I am shocked that what was in complete disarray wound up strengthening after two tornado warned cells earlier in NW Ohio totally fizzled out. Yet not only did the line get going here, but the northern tip of it which wasn't even consolidated as it crossed the border wound up becoming the worst part of it. Glad this thing wound up verifying, albeit a tad weaker than expected

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OK, I get the fact that the US Open is not played in this sub forum, having said that, almost all short term convection allowing models (cam's) show strong storms early this morning just as the first round is getting ready to start, so for sure I think there will be a least a 2-4 hour delay in the start of the tourney.  They may get a 5-6 hour window where some players may be able to get on the course, providing there is not major wind damage from this morning's convection and rain fall rates are less than forecast. It looks like some storms could fire up later in the day as the surface low moves into the area.  They can get the players off the course very quickly, but the gallery is a different question.  Has anyone seen at least partial round of the US Open played without any fans?   Yes I know, the system looks to be weakening as it gets to the mountains, but I think down slopping winds will play a factor this morning.

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Here's a pic and a short clip from the chase today. Ended up making a play on the tornado warned supercell that moved across Lee/DeKalb/Kane counties in IL. Initially we were north of the cell, as I was trying to decided if I wanted to play that one or head up north towards what was the Rockford tor warned cell at the time. Ended up making the decision to take the southern one, and was able to get out ahead of it. We encountered a ragged lowering, which had a nice inflow band moving in from the FFD, along with rising motion, some rotation and a gustnado. After this we allowed the cell/line to catch-up and stayed within the line along Route 34 from Plano to Oswego...Along the way we had winds around 60mph and hail up to around quarter size.

 

I have a longer video that shows the gustnado in the distance, but I'm having issues with it.

 

today1k.jpg

 

 

I saw a very similar looking feature but I think it was a different cell more towards the extreme southern fringe of the line.  I was south of Oswego and west of Joliet.  I was way south because its so hard to approach from the east through Chicago with the traffic and all.  Also didn't want to get stuck in front of a line with the potential for hail and rain-wrapped tornadoes. 

 

Also accidentally intercepted 60mph+ winds coming off Lake Michigan in the South Haven area on the drive back home.  It looked like the back eyewall of a hurricane coming in off the lake, both on radar and in person.  I've never seen anything quite like it.  I need to get my own video together.

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Kankakee Daily Journal story on the damage around Manteno, with a mention of softball size hail in Limestone...hmm.: http://daily-journal.com/archives/dj/display.php?id=508470

 

Looks like LOT may be out investigating that area today. LSRs below:

 

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG MANTENO 41.25N 87.84W
06/12/2013 KANKAKEE IL EMERGENCY MNGR

BARN COLLAPSED WITH HORSES INSIDE. TIME ESTIMATED BASED
ON RADAR.

 

0758 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW MANTENO 41.26N 87.88W
06/12/2013 KANKAKEE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ALONG ROUTE 45 JUST NORTH OF MANTENO BETWEEN 9000 AND
10000 ROAD...NINE POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED AT THE BASE
AND LAYING TO THE EAST. ALSO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
AREA A CHURCH UNDER CONSTRUCTION WAS COMPLETELY
DESTROYED. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

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As the storms moved through my area last night, I noticed a few things:

They lacked any 'punch' at least up here by me. We got rain, thunder, lightning to be sure, but no high winds. Throughout the storm, the trees barely moved. The initial cells that blew up and moved through, when they started to get close, the heavy stuff seemed to bend to the SE, and passed about 10 miles south of me. We got the rain, and thunder, but the wind damage, hail, and such were SW of me by a short distance.

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Sig severe was a bust for sure but honestly in terms of coverage, it wasn't a massive failure

yesterday.gif

Based on some reports (power poles snapped at ground, etc) without a wind speed estimate, I suspect there were more significant gusts than what appears on the map.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

1221 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1047 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NW WABASH 40.83N 85.87W

06/12/2013 E95 MPH WABASH IN NWS STORM SURVEY

DOWNBURST WITH ESTIMATED 90 TO 100 MPH WINDS WENT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF WABASH. A GRAIN SILO AND 2 POLE BARNS WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED WITH DEBRIS BLOWN SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE TO THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF WABASH.

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SPC already hinting at another possible wind event on Monday.

 

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

   VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   FORECAST PERIOD...DEPICTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS.  THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS
   AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY SITUATED OVER THE SRN SASKATCHEWAN/SRN
   MANITOBA VICINITY DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. WITH
   TIME -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD SURROUNDING A LARGE
   CANADIAN MARITIMES UPPER LOW.  SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES WILL
   LIKEWISE SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...S OF THE
   MORE PROMINENT FEATURE EXITING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.

   WITH THESE FEATURES SUPPRESSING THE MEAN CENTRAL U.S. MID-LEVEL
   RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 5 /MON. 6-17/ AND EVEN TO SOME DEGREE DAY
   6...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS.

   ATTM...THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL DAY 4 /SUN. 6-16/ WILL LIKELY
   BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...AS A COLD FRONT
   ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE MOVES
   SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.  DESPITE FAVORABLE
   INSTABILITY...AVAILABLE SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
   WARRANT MENTION OF A MORE HIGH-END SEVERE EVENT.

   SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE DAY 5 ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH
   VALLEY REGION...AS THE FEATURE EXITING CANADA DAY 4 PROGRESSES
   ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THEN INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
   REGION.  THIS SETUP WOULD HINT AT A POSSIBLE WIND EVENT...BUT ATTM
   SUGGESTIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD ONGOING PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT
   DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN MANY AREAS...AND THAT MID-LEVEL
   WLY/NWLY FLOW MAY REMAIN A BIT LESS THAN IDEAL FOR CONFIDENT
   ISSUANCE OF A 30% EQUIVALENT RISK AREA ATTM.  THIS AREA WILL REQUIRE
   ATTENTION IN LATER OUTLOOKS...AS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR A FAIRLY
   SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT COULD EVOLVE -- PARTICULARLY IF
   FUTURE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.



   SOME THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE INTO DAY 6...THOUGH
   MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH FASTER IN MOVING THE
   SYSTEM ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUE.
   SHOULD THE SLOWER ECMWF END UP CLOSER TO REALITY...SEVERE POTENTIAL
   WOULD BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION DAY 6.

   LATE IN THE PERIOD...A LARGE UPPER SYSTEM LINGERING OFF THE PAC NW
   COAST IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING INLAND -- THOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH
   THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.  EVENTUALLY...SEVERE
   POTENTIAL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES THE NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/HIGH PLAINS...BUT PREDICTABILITY ISSUES
   PRECLUDE ANY DEFINITIVE WORD ON SUCH POTENTIAL ATTM.

   ..GOSS.. 06/13/2013

 

 

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Kankakee Daily Journal story on the damage around Manteno, with a mention of softball size hail in Limestone...hmm.: http://daily-journal.com/archives/dj/display.php?id=508470

Looks like LOT may be out investigating that area today. LSRs below:

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG MANTENO 41.25N 87.84W

06/12/2013 KANKAKEE IL EMERGENCY MNGR

BARN COLLAPSED WITH HORSES INSIDE. TIME ESTIMATED BASED

ON RADAR.

0758 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW MANTENO 41.26N 87.88W

06/12/2013 KANKAKEE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ALONG ROUTE 45 JUST NORTH OF MANTENO BETWEEN 9000 AND

10000 ROAD...NINE POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED AT THE BASE

AND LAYING TO THE EAST. ALSO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS

AREA A CHURCH UNDER CONSTRUCTION WAS COMPLETELY

DESTROYED. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

Looks like a gustnado in that one pic.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

134 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...STORM SURVEY RESULTS FOR THE JUNE 12TH CARROLL COUNTY IL TORNADO...

* LOCATION...THE TRACK BEGAN 6 MILES NORTH OF SAVANNA AND ENDED 4 MILES WEST OF MOUNT CARROLL

* TIMING...AROUND 7 PM.

* INJURIES/FATALITIES...1 INJURY.

* EF-SCALE RATING...EF2.

* MAX WIDTH...ONE HALF MILE

* PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES.

* DAMAGE INFORMATION...THE PATH OF THE TORNADO WAS WELL DEFINED WITH SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE. SEVERAL FARM OUT BUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED AND ONE HOUSE WAS PUSHED OFF ITS FOUNDATION.

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NWS DVN explains why the expected derecho failed to occur yesterday in the midwest.

 

What Happened With Yesterday's Severe Storms

 

A National Weather Service official storm survey team will be headed to Northwest Illinois early this morning to survey damage from confirmed tornadoes in portions of Jo Daviess, and Carroll counties.   This information will be available on the NWS Quad Cities web page by mid afternoon. 

Yesterday, severe thunderstorms were expected to form along and north of a stationary front positioned near Interstate 80 during the afternoon. This process occurred, but the front was NOT stationary as expected. Strong instability formed and the atmosphere was not capped off by hot air aloft, but the front lifted north to around Highway 20 as a warm front. This relatively minor shift north, saved the Quad Cities and other nearby metro areas from potential significant storm danger. This is wonderful thing!   If you prepared for the storm, thought about how you would receive warnings, and where you would take shelter, your time was not wasted. You'll need to know those things again sometime, and your life may depend on it.

Thank You,

National Weather Service Quad Cities Staff

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
414 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 /514 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013/

..MANTENO IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS

* MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING: EF-0

* FATALITIES: NONE

* INJURIES: NONE

* BEGIN TIME/LOCATION: 06/12/2013...750 PM CDT
4.7 MILES NW OF MANTENO IL
LAT 41.2924 LONG -87.9086

* END TIME/LOCATION: 06/12/2013...751 PM CDT
4.6 MILES NW OF MANTENO IL
LAT 41.2918 LONG -87.9040

* MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 85 MPH

* PATH LENGTH: 0.25 MILES

* MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS

* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PERSONNEL SURVEYED DAMAGE NORTHWEST OF
MANTENO ILLINOIS IN KANKAKEE COUNTY AND ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THE SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT A WEAK AND BRIEF TORNADO OCCURRED
NEAR MANTENO...WHILE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR
DAMAGE ELSEWHERE NEAR MANTENO AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA.

THE MANTENO TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN AT A FARMSTEAD JUST
SOUTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY LINE ROAD AND NORTH 1500 WEST
ROAD. AT THIS LOCATION THE TORNADO COLLAPSED A BARN KILLING A
HORSE. DEBRIS WAS TOSSED ALMOST 75 YARDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROAD
INTO THE ADJACENT FIELD. THE TORNADO WAS RATED A HIGH END EF-0 AT
THIS LOCATION WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 0.25 MILES...A WIDTH OF 50
YARDS...AND MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS OF 85 MPH. AN AERIAL PHOTO
SHOWING THE TORNADO SCAR INDICATED THAT THE TORNADO QUICKLY
DISSIPATED IN THE FIELD EAST OF THE FARM.

ADDITIONAL DAMAGE ATTRIBUTED TO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WAS FOUND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE TORNADO PATH TOWARD THE WEST SIDE OF MANTENO.
THIS INCLUDED SNAPPED TREE BRANCHES...SNAPPED POWER POLES...MINOR
ROOF DAMAGE TO A GARAGE...AND A COLLAPSED CHURCH THAT WAS UNDER
CONSTRUCTION. THE TEAM ALSO INVESTIGATED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF
DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND ATTRIBUTED THESE TO STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING 100 MPH. THESE DAMAGE REPORTS FOR
INDIANA HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN SHARED AS LOCAL STORM REPORTS.

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Ug. Is there actually a tornado velocity couplet at Bowling Green, or is it just a wind difference on the squall line? To me, it looks like it is a small bowing structure. But there may be a tornado near my parents.

It was pretty intense mid-level rotation... no confirmation yet but a spotter reported a Tornado near Custar... worst of the damage stayed to the west and north of BG thankfully. At work we have a permanent umbrella cemented to the ground that snapped halfway up the wooden pole. Nothing much happened at my place though. Heck of an evolution of that MCS though

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
453 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 /553 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013/

..SHABBONA ILLINOIS DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS

* MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING: EF-1

* FATALITIES: NONE

* INJURIES: NONE

* BEGIN TIME/LOCATION: 06/12/2013...432 PM CDT
2.5 MILES SW OF SHABBONA IL
LAT 41.7344 LONG -88.8923

* END TIME/LOCATION: 06/12/2013...437 PM CDT
3 MILES SE OF SHABBONA IL
LAT 41.7314 LONG -88.8485

* MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 95 MPH

* PATH LENGTH: 2.25 MILES

* MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS

* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PERSONNEL SURVEYED DAMAGE IN EASTERN
LEE...SOUTHERN DE KALB...AND KENDALL COUNTIES OF ILLINOIS. THE
SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT MUCH OF WHAT THEY FOUND WAS STRAIGHT
LINE WIND DAMAGE...BUT ONE AREA SOUTH OF SHABBONA IN SOUTHEAST DE
KALB COUNTY WAS CONFIRMED TO BE A TORNADO.

THE MAXIMUM DAMAGE OCCURRED OVER AN APPROXIMATELY ONE MILE LONG
SEGMENT OF THE PATH WHERE THE TORNADO SNAPPED NUMEROUS UTILITY
POLES AND AROUND 80 PERCENT OF THE LARGE HARDWOOD TREES. ALONG
THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO PATH THERE WAS MINOR TREE DAMAGE.
MINOR SHINGLE PEELING WAS SEEN AT ONE LOCATION...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART THE TORNADO DID NOT INTERSECT ANY STRUCTURES.

THIS TORNADO PATH ALSO WAS COINCIDENT WITH A NEARLY MILE-LONG
SWATH OF LARGE HAIL THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE SHREDDING AND SMASHING
OF CROPS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WIND DAMAGE IN THIS AREA WILL BE
PROVIDED AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE DAMAGE WAS SCATTERED AND
CONSISTENT WITH MAINLY 60-80 MPH WINDS. THIS INCLUDED ABOUT A
HALF DOZEN GRAIN BINS DENTED AND NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWNED.

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