Indystorm Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 IWX current thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 IWX current thinking Even if the worst of the severe is SW of here, the heavy rain potential is looking legit locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Even if the worst of the severe is SW of here, the heavy rain potential is looking legit locally. This x1,000! I'll be happy with that. As for severe wx in W.MI.. Nobody should be complaining about a lack of as we had a number of decent years not long ago. Not every year can be hyper active or active even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Really liking northern IL on Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Yes because one of the strongest derechoes ever is a good benchmark for normal convection... Oh give me a break. I googled "Michigan squall line radar" and that was the best image I could find of convection that wasn't "spotty". I'll settle for any linear MCS that gives everyone a decent lighting show and at least 0.5" of rain. That just hasn't happened here in the month of May or the the first 10 days of June, plus the models are hinting at convection continuing to hug the I-80 corridor and miss my area to the south pretty much through 180 hours. You have to realize I don't get a lot of afternoon popup cells with that cold body of water to my west, so a large a MCS is my best chance at anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Oh give me a break. I googled "Michigan squall line radar" and that was the best image I could find of convection that wasn't "spotty". I'll settle for any linear MCS that gives everyone a decent lighting show and at least 0.5" of rain. That just hasn't happened here in the month of May or the the first 10 days of June, plus the models are hinting at convection continuing to hug the I-80 corridor and miss my area to the south pretty much through 180 hours. You have to realize I don't get a lot of afternoon popup cells with that cold body of water to my west, so a large a MCS is my best chance at anything good. Grand Rapids is usually far enough East from the lake shadow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 This x1,000! I'll be happy with that. As for severe wx in W.MI.. Nobody should be complaining about a lack of as we had a number of decent years not long ago. Not every year can be hyper active or active even. This may be my last summer in MI though. I will probably be moving to Seattle for better job prospects soon. I guess I just have to remember that a good thunderstorm season in the GRR area is a lot like good winter season in the LAF area. Mostly frustrating. When it's good it's really good, but fringe events are far more common. There is a sharp N-S gradient to t-storm frequency between Michigan and Illinois/Indiana just like there is a sharp N-S gradient in seasonal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Check out the NAM hodo for Battle Creek at 21z Wed. This is about as good as it gets for 0-1 km directional shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 This may be my last summer in MI though. I will probably be moving to Seattle for better job prospects soon. I guess I just have to remember that a good thunderstorm season in the GRR area is a lot like good winter season in the LAF area. Mostly frustrating. When it's good it's really good, but fringe events are far more common. There is a sharp N-S gradient to t-storm frequency between Michigan and Illinois/Indiana just like there is a sharp N-S gradient in seasonal snowfall. Enjoy years of boring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Grand Rapids is usually far enough East from the lake shadow... Depends. If a large MCS rolls in from Wisconsin the lake usually won't kill it, and it might even strengthen when it moves inland. But scattered afternoon popups in the warm sector tend to be very hit and miss in the US-131 corridor and only consolidate in coverage once they move further east towards I-69. There has been an abundance of afternoon popups over the eastern part of the state but little in the way of large scale MCS moving in from WI this year. This hasn't favored my area at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Check out the NAM hodo for Battle Creek at 21z Wed. This is about as good as it gets for 0-1 km directional shear. I'd imagine this is not the only impressive looking sounding in the region on the GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'd imagine this is not the only impressive looking sounding in the region on the GFS/NAM. Right, I just picked that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Enjoy years of boring weather. Washington has better mountains. I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 0z 4km WRF is interesting. CI takes place in eastern IA nw of DVN tomorrow afternoon then storms move ESE to IKK/LAF. A monster bow gets going in eastern NE into IA and more storms overnight develop along the front over northern IL and between the two systems into tomorrow morning. What develops in eastern IA tomorrow afternoon survives to NC Weds morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 That sounding sure is pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 SPC Day 2 gives many of you guys 30% hatching... good luck ..MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR DAY 2/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RISK AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF IA/SRN MN...AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR THE NOSE OF A VEERED/REMNANT LOW-LEVEL JET. STORMS -- AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- MAY CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING TOWARD WI/NRN IL...WHILE THE AIRMASS AWAY FROM THE ONGOING CLOUDS/CONVECTION HEATS/DESTABILIZES. BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW PROGGED OVER THE ERN IA VICINITY AND A WARM FRONT LYING ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL/NRN INDIANA AND INTO OH/WRN PA STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN REDEVELOPING -- BOTH INVOF THE LOW OVER IA...AND IN A MORE ISOLATED FASHION EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR...GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR -- AND THUS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED HOWEVER -- PARTICULARLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING MCS WHICH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. THE BOWING BAND OR BANDS OF STORMS SHIFT QUICKLY EWD -- REACHING THE UPPER OH VALLEY LATE IN THE EVENING WITH ONGOING/POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Sounds like a moderate risk will be coming for Wednesday at some point, makes sense considering the thermodynamic/kinematic fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Sounds like a moderate risk will be coming for Wednesday at some point, makes sense considering the thermodynamic/kinematic fields. Yeah, the language seems to imply it. If it doesn't happen on the day 2 afternoon update then it will probably happen by the 6z Wed outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 About 40 miles shift to the south and i'm in the highest probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Today ...SRN SD/NRN NEB INTO SRN MN/NRN IA... ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN SD/NEB WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL EWD ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB INTO SRN MN/NRN IA OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. FORCING FOR THE MCS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME CAPPING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...IT COULD END UP BEING A RELATIVELY SMALL MCS/BOWING SYSTEM...BUT STILL SEVERE. ...ERN IA...NRN IL...IND... A WEAK DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO ERN IA/NRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP IN A CORRIDOR FROM IA INTO IND...AND SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND SOME MOISTENING ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS IL AND INTO IND. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...SOME OF THE HAIL COULD APPROACH 2.00 INCH DIAMETER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 About 40 miles shift to the south and i'm in the highest probs. Outlook was more bullish on the northern end than I would've thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Outlook was more bullish on the northern end than I would've thought. Depending on the path of the storms and leftover boundries later today, the post below could happen. Looks like a typical summer pattern shaping up. Complexes of storms riding around the edge of the building upper high. One thing to watch for is the storms to lay out effective boundaries that can sometimes force things further south than forecast by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 some hints we could stay dry until a monster wednesday aft/eve. edit: after some more digging...wed might be legit and i think we'll see a mod risk with the next update. spacing between action should be more than ample. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 yeah....legit easily Chicagoland's best prospect of the year for widespread severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 06z WRF-NMM has a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 06z WRF-NMM has a monster Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 06z WRF-NMM has a monster Link? I got it from weatherbell which I can't post but it has a large squall line running ENE from NE IL to at least extreme southern mid MI... tough to say exactly how far east /north it reaches as the domain cuts off around Detroit Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 9Z RAP had a bowing structure moving through LOT around 21Z this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I got it from weatherbell which I can't post but it has a large squall line running ENE from NE IL to at least extreme southern mid MI... tough to say exactly how far east /north it reaches as the domain cuts off around Detroit Sent from my HTCONE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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