Memphis Weather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Another LOT Update - Getting less concerned about the warm sector but also now focusing on the boundary discussed here. COUPLE QUICK THOUGHTS ON SOME EVOLUTIONS IN THE MESOSCALEENVIRONMENT IN THE PAST 60 TO 90 MINS. DEEPER MIXING IN THE WARMSECTOR IS ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO VEER CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE WARMSECTOR...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ANDPOTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACK OR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN THE WARMSECTOR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW INTHE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT IN OUR CWA THEMORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AND HIGH END WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULDLIKELY END UP NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT FROM ROUGHLY NEARCHICAGO WNW TO DBQ. THIS BOUNDARY MAY YET FLUCTUATE SOME THISAFTERNOON...BUT WHERE EVER THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP IS WHERE THEHIGHEST END SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH SUPERCELL OR MORELIKELY WITH STRONG MV'S ALONG LEADING EDGE OF BOW THIS EVENING.THE 1800 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX STILL SHOW A STRONG CAPPRESENT...HOWEVER COMPARISON OF BOTH SOUNDINGS SHOW EVIDENCE OFASCENT TAKING PLACE AND BEGINNING TO LIFT THROUGH THE CAP. ALSOSEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHGRADUALLY DEEPENING CU FIELD OVER NW IL. HAVE BEGUN TO SEECONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER NE IA ALREADY AND EXPECT MORE EXPLOSIVESEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUROR TWO.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Chasing with Walker Ashley and Victor Gensini. West of Oregon, IL currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That cell near Waverly is turning right, and has also thrown off a left split. It's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 nice update from Gino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Guys what is the best Quad Cities news station to watch for coverage? Or should I watch Dubuque's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Ocean, what are you thinking for the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area? It seems like the better shot of storms may be north and toward hw20 and the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 DTX is on board for south of 59. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDDTX&e=201306121948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Ocean, what are you thinking for the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area? It seems like the better shot of storms may be northeast toward Dubuque. Greatest threat is up closer to DBQ, but there are towers going up to your south as well (near Sigourney). So I can't rule anything out, but it looks like CID/IOW may avoid any big trouble right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The boundary moved S of ORD in the past hour. ORD was 85/71 at 2PM, and dropped to 83/66 at 3PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Guys what is the best Quad Cities news station to watch for coverage? Or should I watch Dubuque's? I prefer wqad, terry swails is one of the better local mets. The other stations aren't on the same tier. Things about to erupt soon I think across this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Great link to bookmark for today: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ GOES 14 Rapid Scan Operation will be available for today's high risk. Beautiful satellite updates every minute. That anvil blooming and sliding over the lower level clouds is a beautiful sight on the left side (eastern iowa). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 new outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z ..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN IA NRN IL...NRN IND...EXTREME SWRN MI AND EXTREME NWRN OH... ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA CNTRL AND NRN IL...SRN WI...SWRN MI...IND...AND WRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL AND ERN MT INTO NERN WY... ..UPPER MS VALLEY SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT STILL APPEARS ON TRACK FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS. STORMS ARE IN PROCESS OF DEVELOPING FROM NERN IA INTO SRN WI WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GENERALLY NE OF SFC LOW AND NORTH OF E-W QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THE INITIAL SFC BASED STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF SFC LOW MAY ORGANIZE AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIAL TORNADO THREAT. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRANSITION TO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AS IT MOVES ESEWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..MT AND NERN WY REF SWOMCD 1042. ..DIAL.. 06/12/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I prefer wqad, terry swails is one of the better local mets. The other stations aren't on the same tier. Things about to erupt soon I think across this area. Towers going up just north of the QCA now. Jones, Jackson, Clinton, and Scott Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I prefer wqad, terry swails is one of the better local mets. The other stations aren't on the same tier. Things about to erupt soon I think across this area. Thanks Justin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Nice cell going near Savanna, IL. These initial cell structures remind me so much of 6/5/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Nice cell going near Savanna, IL. These initial cell structures remind me so much of 6/5/10. I was just about to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 new outlook They must have seen your criticism about having a PDS watch out in a non-slight risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Front has come south a bit since 2pm. Clouded over again here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Closing in on Oregon, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 45% hatched wind area has been extended about 50-75 miles south in to East Central Illinois Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 My surface winds just went due West, cooled off and dew point dropped...hmmmm Cells South of iowa city going up have piqued my interest as well as along the river to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Towers showing up nicely with GOES 14. (A different angle) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 sterling cell getting interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That cell near Dixon is going to be a big problem. Already spinning nicely aloft and going to interact with the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Updrafts in both the Carroll and Lee County IL cells starting to get more impressive and as noted low-level reflectivity structure already interesting looking. Wouldn't be surprised to see SVRs on both shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That cell near Dixon is going to be a big problem. Already spinning nicely aloft and going to interact with the boundary. Completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 dropped to 65 downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Completely agree. About to comment on this one. Growing fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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