frostfern Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Punt till next year for Michigan. Now you know why I don't like the "cool" summers winter weenies wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Punt till next year for Michigan. Now you know why I don't like the "cool" summers winter weenies wish for. It is only June 10th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Punt till next year for Michigan. Now you know why I don't like the "cool" summers winter weenies wish for. Lol, there was already a tornado event on May 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Punt till next year for Michigan. Now you know why I don't like the "cool" summers winter weenies wish for. probably a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Lol @ people calling punt till next year. Summer just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I'm liking everywhere in this subforum but here. Only minimal sarcasm with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Lol @ people calling punt till next year. Summer just started. sarcasm fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 About impossible to pin down how Wed will evolve at this point. We know these things love to backbuild, with "elevated trailers" as I like to call them. The southward extent of tomorrow night's MCS and associated boundary is likely gonna have at least some impact, especially if the morning leftovers hang on for awhile. The conditional potential is pretty big for Wed though. Gonna be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 sarcasm failBased upon frostfern's previous downplay of everything, he is completely serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 sarcasm fail Really hard to detect sarcasm in this forum, seeing as how we've had many posers declare "season punt/fail" in November or March, time and time again. Including you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 it's not hard if you aren't tone deaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Severe chances for SEMI on Wed once again heavily mesoscale dependent. Gonna need wagons north on that warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 ILN AFD says I have 2 shots at severe weather on Wednesday/night. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 354 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 . .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NRN CWFA BY THE AFTN HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT TO THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA WHILE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE SW...PLACING A CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE ACRS THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A PSEUDO FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE WARM FRONT MERGE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A WEAK S/WV. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW VERY WARM TO HOT AIR TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACRS THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. WILL MENTION ALL THESE THREATS IN THE HWO. MORE CONCERN ARISES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A BONAFIDE S/WV FORECAST TO DIVE SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES AMONGST THE MODELS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE S/WV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WAVE IN WHICH DYNAMICS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO OUR NW AND PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. HOWEVER...IF A VERY LATE ARRIVAL OCCURS...THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. A LATE ARRIVAL MAY MAKE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING BEING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT GIVEN PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 4 KM (FAVORING EFFICIENT COLLISION/COALESCENCE). WILL ALSO MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE MAIN S/WV...SFC LOW AND FRONT SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. THEY SHOULD SHIFT SE AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THURSDAY AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN FROM NW TO SE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUDS BREAK AND PCPN PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Severe chances for SEMI on Wed once again heavily mesoscale dependent. Gonna need wagons north on that warm front. Tomorrow will be huge with this, will have to watch the warm front progression throughout the day tomorrow. As it stands there shouldn't be any convective complexes tonight and into tomorrow until late in the evening so the warm front should lift north nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 People still feeling the wrath of winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'm liking everywhere in this subforum but here. Only minimal sarcasm with that.hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 hi Good luck with your severe chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Good luck with your severe chances.Major lack of storms up here :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Lol, there was already a tornado event on May 28th. I'm mainly lamenting the frequent busts IMBY this spring. With the exception of May 20th it has been very very slow here on the west side of the state - even for plain old garden variety thunder. Lots of showers and stratiform precip. Little lightning. Even the local meteorologists are mentioning the pattern of most thunderstorm activity staying south of the Indiana border this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'm mainly lamenting the frequent busts IMBY this spring. With the exception of May 20th it has been very very slow here on the west side of the state - even for plain old garden variety thunder. Lots of showers and stratiform precip. Little lightning. Even the local meteorologists are mentioning the pattern of most thunderstorm activity staying south of the Indiana border this year. Does this mean there is need to punt the entire rest of the season in Western MI? I swear every severe thread in this region has a MI poster at some point punting something... Anyway, back on topic, the 18z GFS shows a pretty nice area of 250-400 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH by 00z Thursday across most of the eastern half of IL, which could be accented by leftover outflow boundaries especially further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 At first glance, this setup seems similar to the one that yield the serial derecho last year, with just about the same locations being impacted too. And yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit misses this one to the NE, given the mean flow and the track of the disturbance. But It doesn't matter though, it's only June 10th. Back during the Summer from hell (2009), much of Detroit's severe weather action didn't arrive until August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Severe chances for SEMI on Wed once again heavily mesoscale dependent. Gonna need wagons north on that warm front. Looking like the same deal for Ontario although SPC Day 3 has the extreme south in the SLGT. Anticipating a shift south on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 probably a good call I learn from the master of punting. You get fringed to the north all winter, I get fringed to the southwest all summer. It balances out I suppose. I'm just lamenting the lack of boomers for the past month or so despite frequent chances. With the exception of May 20th (the one quality chase day in my area) nothing has really panned out so far and I'm getting impatient now. There has been some severe and even a tornado well to my SE, but it's just been so spotty. I just want a nice region-wide squall line with lots of lighting. Unless some kind of MCV develops pushing the LLJ further north, the next system looks like more stratiform rain with maybe a rumble or two. Worse, the system after that looks like much the same deal unless the models start to trend more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I learn from the master of punting. You get fringed to the north all winter, I get fringed to the southwest all summer. It balances out I suppose. I'm just lamenting the lack of boomers for the past month or so despite frequent chances. With the exception of May 20th (the one quality chase day in my area) nothing has really panned out so far and I'm getting impatient now. There has been some severe and even a tornado well to my SE, but it's just been so spotty. I just want a nice region-wide squall line with lots of lighting. Unless some kind of MCV develops pushing the LLJ further north, the next system looks like more stratiform rain with maybe a rumble or two. Worse, the system after that looks like much the same deal unless the models start to trend more north. You do understand convection is isolated by nature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 You do understand convection is isolated by nature? Not always... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Not always... Yes because one of the strongest derechoes ever is a good benchmark for normal convection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Not always... Either your expectations are way too high or...well I hope this isn't what you mean by a "nice squall line". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Michigan is not really that far behind in severe reports compared to some states. There are some pockets with few severe reports (see NE IN/NW OH) but assuming this is true and not because of lack of spotters, etc, that's just how it goes sometimes. Severe reports through June 9: IL: 262 KY: 211 IN: 144 WI: 127 MI: 125 OH: 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Since the d-word was thrown out...some of us are "lucky enough" to experience one per year, on average. SPC's page on derechos, complete with the famous ones...for those that are interested: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Michigan is not really that far behind in severe reports compared to some states. There are some pockets with few severe reports (see NE IN/NW OH) but assuming this is true and not because of lack of spotters, etc, that's just how it goes sometimes. Severe reports through June 9: IL: 262 KY: 211 IN: 144 WI: 127 MI: 125 OH: 99 Don't you know how it is, if a severe storm doesn't hit a Michigan poster's specific location it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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