Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Look at those boundaries on that satellite photo as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Look at those boundaries on that satellite photo as well. That area in between Peoria and Rockford in NW IL is going to be prime for tornadic supercells (in addition to IA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That area in between Peoria and Rockford in NW IL is going to be prime for tornadic supercells (in addition to IA). mean storm motion for supercells will be....? on the phone with my inlaws now who live in JoDavies County....furthest NW county in IL....thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Modified sounding for DVN with today's forecast high temp and dew point somewhere in Clinton Co., IA. Can't modify the winds, but you can imagine the hodograph is trending favorably. You can see if we pop that cap, 3500+ J/kg to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That blue sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Clearing out nicely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 mean storm motion for supercells will be....? on the phone with my inlaws now who live in JoDavies County....furthest NW county in IL....thanks! Should be similar to orientation of the high risk, so primarily easterly or east-southeasterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Track Storms Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Given the high risk for Chicago and surrounding areas today.... I have always wondered if population plays any part in the SPC issuing high risks; i.e. would the parameters today in the Midwest cause a high risk say if they were in Montana. If population does play a part, I could make a case on both sides of the argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Dews jumped 3 degrees in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Given the high risk for Chicago and surrounding areas today.... I have always wondered if population plays any part in the SPC issuing high risks; i.e. would the parameters today in the Midwest cause a high risk say if they were in Montana. If population does play a part, I could make a case on both sides of the argument. I think it's supposed to be entirely meteorologically driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Should be similar to orientation of the high risk, so primarily easterly or east-southeasterly. Kind of figured that but wanted to check 100% with those more knowledgeable....thanks Andy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 We've destabilized quite nicely up here, even with no sun. Clearing taking place to the west. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think it's supposed to be entirely meteorologically driven. SPC will generally have better and more data to make decisions about Chicago than they would about some poorly-sampled disturbance dipping into Montana from Canada too. More upper air data, possibly several days worth of well-sampled development data, better radar coverage, no mountains to contend with, fewer microclimates, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Thick clouds have filled in around here in the last hour, but the morning sun already boosted us well into the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 e-w boundary running roughly along the I88 corridor seems to be rather persistent and where I'd favore discrete action to fire within the next few hours. Still really like the Rochell area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 High risk is for geographical coverage and extent of storms. Given that, what kind of watches do you think will be forthcoming later today? Tornado? PDS severe? Do they issue PDS tornado when the focus is mainly on high straight line winds but 15% hatched tors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 The watch decisions later will be interesting... I mean I think they will go tornado but will we see the PDS wording in the tornado watches even though extreme straight line winds are thought to be the more dominant threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 High risk is for geographical coverage and extent of storms. Given that, what kind of watches do you think will be forthcoming later today? Tornado? PDS severe? Do they issue PDS tornado when the focus is mainly on high straight line winds but 15% hatched tors? Just beat me to it. Will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Thick clouds have filled in around here in the last hour, but the morning sun already boosted us well into the 80s. 87/71 at CID, just waiting for that cap to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Dews jumped 3 degrees in the last hour. You can almost taste it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Modified sounding for DVN with today's forecast high temp and dew point somewhere in Clinton Co., IA. Can't modify the winds, but you can imagine the hodograph is trending favorably. You can see if we pop that cap, 3500+ J/kg to use. the big thing you're going to need is the thermal ridge in central IA to get a move-on and out of there. once you can get that 700 temp to start dropping a bit on the other side of that thermal ridge, say 21z or so, that lid is more than blown. here's the 17z rap analysis, with the shaded area greater than 12C at 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 From some internal talk I've seen - sounds like we will see non PDS tornado watches with extremely beefy wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 At 12 noon: Macomb IL 92/70 Moline IL 88/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 the big thing you're going to need is the thermal ridge in central IA to get a move-on and out of there. once you can get that 700 temp to start dropping a bit on the other side of that thermal ridge, say 21z or so, that lid is more than blown. here's the 17z rap analysis, with the shaded area greater than 12C at 700. 700hpa_17z.gif Bingo, as that shortwave approaches that cap will erode with time. That's why we're just seeing the congested Cu in east central Iowa right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 From some internal talk I've seen - sounds like we will see non PDS tornado watches with extremely beefy wording. I thought it was policy for watches within a high risk to be PDS, although I understand the conundrum here. I kinda thought there could be a PDS tornado watch further west in IA and NW IL where the 15% hatched is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Dew point at 71° so far here. western suburbs along i88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I thought it was policy for watches within a high risk to be PDS, although I understand the conundrum here. PDS Tornado Watches only when the high risk probabilities are for tornadoes. Otherwise it is the forecaster's discretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 From some internal talk I've seen - sounds like we will see non PDS tornado watches with extremely beefy wording. I'd think (I don't know) that a 'garden variety' tornado probs tornado watch with wind or hail that would merit a PDS Severe Watch would be PDS. Seems the logical way. But that doesn't mean its the way it is. How many offices are doing 17Z or 18Z balloons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Sun starting to peek through. Getting very humid out. This is more like it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I thought it was policy for watches within a high risk to be PDS, although I understand the conundrum here. I kinda thought there could be a PDS tornado watch further west in IA and NW IL where the 15% hatched is. Many ways you could go about it. PDS severe with enhanced wording about tornadoes for the western portion of the watch. You could split the watches, PDS tornado for much of DVN, PDS severe to the east, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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