Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Have a constructive and safe trip and look forward to your updates and observations. I will try and keep updated while I am out there. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 unlikely given warm front position and best deep moisture Looks like models pick up on the high 700 mb temps advecting in from the SW and capping everything South of the warm front for the time being. Looks like today..12 C is probably the Cap temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The media has done a nice job of getting word out about the potential danger. People in the office are talking about it already this morning. Hope everyone else takes it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Looks like models pick up on the high 700 mb temps advecting in from the SW and capping everything South of the warm front for the time being. Looks like today..12 C is probably the Cap temp. yeah we'll be capped for a while but the warm front is still well south, so i wouldn't worry if i'm further south into the mod risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This is going to be extremely interesting from Northern IL into North/West Ohio tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Geesh, serious backing sfc winds in southeast IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yeah we'll be capped for a while but the warm front is still well south, so i wouldn't worry if i'm further south into the mod risk. I would if you are planning on chasing/spotting further South unless you like to do so at night! 700 mb temps that are cool enough to trigger new convection are all the way out into S. Dakota and Western Nebraska. This implies just to the NE of the Warm nose is the best bet if you want to see something during daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 certainly does not have a stormy feel yet...still quite comfortable and cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Have a constructive and safe trip and look forward to your updates and observations. I will try and keep updated while I am out there. Thanks You want our spotter number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I would if you are planning on chasing/spotting further South unless you like to do so at night! 700 mb temps that are cool enough to trigger new convection are all the way out into S. Dakota and Western Nebraska. This implies just to the NE of the Warm nose is the best bet if you want to see something during daylight hours. I don't think anyone here was planning on chasing the southern portions of the mod risk. Think most are targeting somewhere in north or northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Craven Sig Svr already up to 100-110 in south central to se IA even at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 You want our spotter number? Yes please pm it to me, thanks very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Is it possible to get monster storms without any sun/day time warming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Pointless cloud debris/decaying showers once again in a potential severe setup. Color me shocked. The models are just trying to lure those of us further north in. Nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Is it possible to get monster storms without any sun/day time warming? for sure. most unstable cape and shear are going to be plentiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Pointless cloud debris/decaying showers once again in a potential severe setup. Color me shocked. The models are just trying to lure those of us further north in. Nothing to see here.Clearing rapidly moving into the MSN area.Should see sun down here around/shortly after noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 for sure. most unstable cape and shear are going to be plentiful. just doesn't have that feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 just doesn't have that feel. not yet and it might never really feel muggy lake side but we have a ways to go before initiation and should see some periods of filtered sun. Theta-e continues to increase from the south and we're going to have an excellent instability feed from just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Craven Sig Svr already up to 100-110 in south central to se IA even at this hour. I'm not sure I recall personally seeing it that high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 the warm front is really washed out over N. IL and probably won't sharpen and try to move north until this minor bit of convergence moving across north central IL passes through. Noon might be a little optimistic but it shouldn't be much after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Clearing up quickly out in moline. Out here for work this morning and the sun is shining brightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Pointless cloud debris/decaying showers once again in a potential severe setup. Color me shocked. The models are just trying to lure those of us further north in. Nothing to see here. Does that mean you're finally leaving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Is it possible to get monster storms without any sun/day time warming? Short answer: Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 surfaced based CAPES @ or above 2500 popping up in Central IL into Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Clearing rapidly moving into the MSN area. Should see sun down here around/shortly after noon. yeah...I suspect 70% sun strength at or around noon down here...still headed west joe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 All from the 12z RAP, talking nearly 55-70kts of bulk shear with this kind of instability, then a few sig tor and sup composite progs. Really backing the winds along the boundary near I-39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 HIGH RISK COMING 1630 OUTLOOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 HIGH RISK COMING 1630 OUTLOOK Bumping up the wind threat? Or tor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 HIGH RISK COMING 1630 OUTLOOK MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN IA...NRN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 121526Z - 121630Z SUMMARY...THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM EXTREME EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OHIO. IN ADDITION...TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 15 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FAST-MOVING AND FORWARD-PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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