Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I was originally going to setup near Niles MI, Valpo IN isnt that much further. Valpo nw is pretty congested and urban. More open territory to the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 DVN is not pulling any punches either. Shut the garage door...? urging people to not try and outrun tornado I would assume... and watching that convection he was talking about in Iowa....things really are having a tough time once you get south of Des Moines...just don't see anything washing the boundary further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 for DVN... . HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL400 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013AN EMERGENCY MANAGERS CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE CONDUCTED TODAY AT1030 AM CONCERNING THIS EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 DVN is not pulling any punches either. Shut the garage door...? urging people to not try and outrun tornado I would assume... and watching that convection he was talking about in Iowa....things really are having a tough time once you get south of Des Moines...just don't see anything washing the boundary further south Agree here, if there's no outflow to push things south, then you have to worry that the strength of the low level flow/theta e advection south of the boundary could even push it north because the lake influence, while certainly still there, is lessening with nearshore water temps in the low 60s. I'm very concerned about the NAM and GFS runs that had the farther north track and also the high res guidance (spc wrf and nssl wrf) popping discrete cells over northern IL before the potential hellacious qlcs moves through. Also concerned that 6/5/10 has continued to show up as a top analog. Going to catch a few more hrs nap before what's sure to be a crazy day at LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Agree here, if there's no outflow to push things south, then you have to worry that the strength of the low level flow/theta e advection south of the boundary could even push it north because the lake influence, while certainly still there, is lessening with nearshore water temps in the low 60s. I'm very concerned about the NAM and GFS runs that had the farther north track and also the high res guidance (spc wrf and nssl wrf) popping discrete cells over northern IL before the potential hellacious qlcs moves through. Also concerned that 6/5/10 has continued to show up as a top analog. Going to catch a few more hrs nap before what's sure to be a crazy day at LOT. for sure....rest up brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Going to catch a few more hrs nap before what's sure to be a crazy day at LOT. Good luck today, this is the type of event that I'm sure that the LOT office has been preparing for, for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Check out the SPC SSEO probs for (3hr) updraft helicity greater than 25 m2/s2 valid at 03z: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/sseonew.php?run=20130612§or=20&id=3NPR-UH25 Also, updraft speed greater than 10 m2/s2 at 03z: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/sseonew.php?run=20130612§or=20&id=3NPR-UP10 Both fit pretty well with the SREF Sig-tor ingredients. Wind probs (> 30 kt) definitely hit hardest even a bit south of updraft helicity: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/sseonew.php?run=20130612§or=20&id=3NPR-WS30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Good luck today, this is the type of event that I'm sure that the LOT office has been preparing for, for quite some time. for sure....rest up brother Thanks guys, honestly it's hopefully not as bad as we fear given the amount of people in harms way in the CWA. Anyone posting obs/reports on here I'll try to check back from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The SPC outlook probs look more like something I would expect over OK than in this region. A very concerning day to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Check out the SPC SSEO probs for (3hr) updraft helicity greater than 25 m2/s2 valid at 03z: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/sseonew.php?run=20130612§or=20&id=3NPR-UH25 Also, updraft speed greater than 10 m2/s2 at 03z: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/sseonew.php?run=20130612§or=20&id=3NPR-UP10 Both fit pretty well with the SREF Sig-tor ingredients. Wind probs (> 30 kt) definitely hit hardest even a bit south of updraft helicity: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/sseonew.php?run=20130612§or=20&id=3NPR-WS30 wow...maxed out...scary stuff.....legit day on tap...I assume you will be down in Romeoville today? i'll be up the route near weber and boughton most of the day but may venture out west and south a bit for better vision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 9Z RAP blowing up cells over eastern Iowa and a good chunk of northern IL by 20Z - 21Z EDIT: Looks particularly nasty at 01Z in chi metro and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 very interesting picture this morning with more things to be bullish about than not. -regional playing field is very quiet. not a whole ton of junk and nothing cutting to the south interrupting moisture return. -looks like we'll start the day with at least some filtered sun and nearest complex in Iowa looks to be dying off. -does look like i'll avoid the worst severe threat (speaking twisters only)...marine airmass still firmly in control and it's almost chilly out. Still should see decent storms even along the lakefront but the warm front isn't going to win out and will stay well south. -look out plainfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 very interesting picture this morning with more things to be bullish about than not. -regional playing field is very quiet. not a whole ton of junk and nothing cutting to the south interrupting moisture return. -looks like we'll start the day with at least some filtered sun and nearest complex in Iowa looks to be dying off. -does look like i'll avoid the worst severe threat (speaking twisters only)...marine airmass still firmly in control and it's almost chilly out. Still should see decent storms even along the lakefront but the warm front isn't going to win out and will stay well south. -look out plainfield. had the same thought as I foggily looked over stuff from my cell phone in bed early this morning...will be very interesting to see how the boundaries, lake breeze, etc. set up later this afternoon mod risk for flash flooding this evening as well via the HPC...people out and about for the Cup tonight could be in for a hot mess on the roads with outages and standing water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow, look what came from the night. Good grief, I certainly wasn't expecting this. Very "sobering" Indeed. These are the highest probabilities I've seen since 5/29/11 around here. Hat svr wx day brought 85mph straight line winds, a few tornadoes and dangerous CG's over much of southern lower Michigan during the late afternoon hours. Looks like that may be the only limiting factor over this way is a delayed into-the-evening (which is more or less worse if we're dealing with sups). Everyone stay safe today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 had the same thought as I foggily looked over stuff from my cell phone in bed early this morning...will be very interesting to see how the boundaries, lake breeze, etc. set up later this afternoon mod risk for flash flooding this evening as well via the HPC...people out and about for the Cup tonight could be in for a hot mess on the roads with outages and standing water forecasting the lake breeze can be so hard but for the time being, I think from the immediate Chicago shore up towards Geos should see enough of a marine influence to greatly cut down the tornado threat. But in the end, this is mostly just a hunch based on my experiences with the lake and nearby warm fronts. the lack of undercutting convection to our south is concerning and will really allow the flow to the south of the warm front to rip north which is a scenario we don't see too often. it's also been a while since the last event with real outbreak potential in the LOT CWA and with the suburban sprawl marching endlessly west/south we're going to have a ton of population centers in play even if the city is spared. worth noting, minor marine influence is going to do much for the wind/hail/flooding threats in the city. EDIT: IA complex continues to shiit the bed...going to be an empty playing field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 forecasting the lake breeze can be so hard but for the time being, I think from the immediate Chicago shore up towards Geos should see enough of a marine influence to greatly cut down the tornado threat. But in the end, this is mostly just a hunch based on my experiences with the lake and nearby warm fronts. the lack of undercutting convection to our south is concerning and will really allow the flow to the south of the warm front to rip north which is a scenario we don't see too often. it's also been a while since the last event with real outbreak potential in the LOT CWA and with the suburban sprawl marching endlessly west/south we're going to have a ton of population centers in play even if the city is spared. worth noting, minor marine influence is going to do much for the wind/hail/flooding threats in the city. EDIT: IA complex continues to shiit the bed...going to be an empty playing field. you can see this via OBS already as the boundary looks to be on the move....and yeah, there is just nothing between us and that warm moist feed...nothing...def fairly rare for us up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 you can see this via OBS already as the boundary looks to be on the move....and yeah, there is just nothing between us and that warm moist feed...nothing...def fairly rare for us up here the RAP continues to be early with the lake breeze but also seems too busy with junk...not sure I buy it and feel any lake influence will be limited to the extreme near shore and NE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Last night's RAP seems to have a pretty good grasp on what looks to be playing out with convection in Iowa/Wisco this AM... Watching a cloud deck approach from the west...will have to keep an eye on satellite trends over the next few hours for speed and or if it will just wash out....don't think it will really be a "problem" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Last night's RAP seems to have a pretty good grasp on what looks to be playing out with convection in Iowa/Wisco this AM... Watching a cloud deck approach from the west...will have to keep an eye on satellite trends over the next few hours for speed and or if it will just wash out....don't think it will really be a "problem" obs clear up pretty quick to the west behind that deck...super thin junk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 early guesses from the hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Last night's rap had storms blowing up over the Cedar Rapids area mid-afternoon, but this morning's runs have sped up the surface low passage a bit so now the storm development is mostly northeast and east of CR. Should be fun for the IL guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The SPC outlook probs look more like something I would expect over OK than in this region. A very concerning day to come. I was just thinking that. You guys stay safe up there today. I don't claim to be an expert on the lake breeze front that sets up off Lake Michigan, but with such an atypical setup, you have to wonder if the stout warm pump ahead of the system could mitigate how far the breeze advances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy46237 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Is it too early to ask for thoughts on how and when this storm system will impact the Indy metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think SPI is having dewpoint issues, current obs are 76/76. Still, low 70's dews into central and southern IL at 7:00am. Juicy. 75/70 in the LAF, but looks like we may be too far south to get into anything. Good luck to everyone up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think SPI is having dewpoint issues, current obs are 76/76. Still, low 70's dews into central and southern IL at 7:00am. Juicy. 6:12 7:8am obs.gif 75/70 in the LAF, but looks like we may be too far south to get into anything. Good luck to everyone up north. Bet the heat monger has already been out reveling in this the soupy air this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Very concerned for the local area today. Don't see ingredients in place like this very often. Now, off to work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Some hi-res... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 check out the MI supercells in that 2nd 3km-res wrf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 check out the MI supercells in that 2nd 3km-res wrf. string of pearls really liking the potential for some extreme comma head winds later. Lots of hi-res runs showing landcane eye potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Bet the heat monger has already been out reveling in this the soupy air this morning.. Hoosier? Yeah, he's probably out jogging...with another 5 miles planned for 3:00pm, peak heating. It's muggy as all get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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