A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 dat comma head whenever we start seeing such classic mesoscale features show up in simulated radars time after time it's a pretty good signal for a big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This is just not good to see...0z NAM is slower and further north with the boundary laying right across the LOT CWA tomorrow evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Also looks like this is trending pretty late...which is no good for a lot of reasons. Particularly selfish reason is I have to get up at like 4:30AM Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This is just not good to see...0z NAM is slower and further north with the boundary laying right across the LOT CWA tomorrow evening.. nam1.png backed like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 more classic signature...it's almost like a massive supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 more classic signature...it's almost like a massive supercell That might be the slowest run I've seen so far. Pushing into I-39 not until 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 0z 4km NAM looks nasty for N IL, S WI, N IN, and S MI. EDIT: Swing and a whiff for LAF. PSumner FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 0z 4km NAM looks nasty for N IL, S WI, N IN, and S MI. Partly worried it gets to SEMI so late we'll have lost all instability, but if it really turns into a monster that shouldn't be a huge problem. Heavy rain threat looks legit for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 0z 4km NAM looks nasty for N IL, S WI, N IN, and S MI. Slower and stronger. Goes into sub 1000mb over MDW/Gary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This is just not good to see...0z NAM is slower and further north with the boundary laying right across the LOT CWA tomorrow evening.. nam1.png Goodness, LOT's next discussion is going to be a beefy piece of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Partly worried it gets to SEMI so late we'll have lost all instability, but if it really turns into a monster that shouldn't be a huge problem. Heavy rain threat looks legit for sure though. These things don't die easily...classic overnight wind threat. You guys may fare "well". But yeah, heavy rainer for N IL, S WI, and S MI on the table to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 After talking to someone who knows Northern Indiana better than I do, I will be targeting between Warsaw and Plymouth along U.S. 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Slower and stronger. Goes into sub 1000mb over MDW/Gary. It's currently 998 mb over nw KS per SPC meso analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Partly worried it gets to SEMI so late we'll have lost all instability, but if it really turns into a monster that shouldn't be a huge problem. Heavy rain threat looks legit for sure though. Strengthening low-level wind fields and MSLP would help cut down the potential of the instability waning quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 These things don't die easily...classic overnight wind threat. You guys may fare "well". But yeah, heavy rainer for N IL, S WI, and S MI on the table to boot. That works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 As if this setup didn't look dangerous enough (this has a real good chance of getting pretty bad, folks), as someone noted, tomorrow night is game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals at the Madhouse. The wx is going to be the last thing on the collective mind of Chicago tomorrow, not to mention the standing room only crowd at the game and all the packed bars in the city and burbs. great point. The last thing on people's mind in Chicagoland is going to be the weather tomorrow afternoon/evening. If things get as bad as the models are hinting, it could be trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Strengthening low-level wind fields and MSLP would help cut down the potential of the instability waning quickly. Which was a good example back towards NWOH/SEMI on 6/5/2010 where clouds were an issue all day and storms came through after 10PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Renewed convection firing now over MN and western WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Looks like an active period tomorrow sometime. MKX is taking morning to mid day and now the NAM is saying afternoon to evening. Could be trouble if this happens later in the day like you said Chitown. I see some convection to my north a little ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Local met saying hurricane force winds 75mph+ possible tomorrow with some of the intense storms Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Regarding tor potential, I would like to see stronger surface wind fields to help keep the downdrafts from overpowering the inflow region. Sometimes surface flow is stronger than modeled, so it may not be a huge deal. Also, with winds backed around to more than 90 degrees just south of the warm front, any storm in that environment should be capable of producing as long as it remains discrete long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I like the slower and more northward trend. I'm thinking there will be potent bookend-vortex crossing the southern part of Lake MI with lots of wind and lightning just after dark. Should be fun to watch from the beach if I get a chance to drive down towards Benton Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 21Z SREF sigtor at 00Z tomorrow evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Confirmed tornado in Dawes Co. Nebraska panhandle just a while ago. Potent system heading east. Supercells starting to explode now in north central Nebraska.moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 21Z SREF sigtor at 00Z tomorrow evening... SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f027 21Z.gif Now that looks closer to the current moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Now that looks closer to the current moderate risk. Would you like a bun with that weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I-90/I-80 special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 00Z RAP keeps most of the AM action north of LOT and then starts to blow up cells in Eastern Iowa into North Central IL towards the end of the run....FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Would you like a bun with that weenie? Yes : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Either cutting out of work early or not going at all. Might be the most interesting setup since '11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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