Brian5671 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 You know it's a cool summer when folks are arguing over 60 vs 63 dews... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Lots of things going for today... Good jet dynamics/QG lift by and after 5p.m., s/w racing east from W NY, stalled front/thermal troughing over SNE, strong deep layer shear (45 knots). The key will be after we mix out the dew points (which we're doing now) will be if we're able to recover a bit later today with backing winds and a developing sea breeze. If we are able to keep dews in the mid 60s we could really get a decent svr wx event today but if we mix out too much it will be fairly run of the mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2013 Author Share Posted June 17, 2013 Definitely a summer feel out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Hills might have trouble getting much past 70F on Wed...even the valley at places like BDL prob won't see 80F. Yeah I went 77 at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2013 Author Share Posted June 17, 2013 Lots of things going for today... Good jet dynamics/QG lift by and after 5p.m., s/w racing east from W NY, stalled front/thermal troughing over SNE, strong deep layer shear (45 knots). The key will be after we mix out the dew points (which we're doing now) will be if we're able to recover a bit later today with backing winds and a developing sea breeze. If we are able to keep dews in the mid 60s we could really get a decent svr wx event today but if we mix out too much it will be fairly run of the mill. Winds back a little near and south of BOS and down into RI and srn CT as they normally do. Might act like a convergence booster that we sometimes see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Hills might have trouble getting much past 70F on Wed...even the valley at places like BDL prob won't see 80F.BOX has mid- upper 70's for hills Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Winds back a little near and south of BOS and down into RI and srn CT as they normally do. Might act like a convergence booster that we sometimes see. Indeed. Would be nice if we can get some moisture return as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 surprised theres not a slight risk for here today Lots of things going for today... Good jet dynamics/QG lift by and after 5p.m., s/w racing east from W NY, stalled front/thermal troughing over SNE, strong deep layer shear (45 knots). The key will be after we mix out the dew points (which we're doing now) will be if we're able to recover a bit later today with backing winds and a developing sea breeze. If we are able to keep dews in the mid 60s we could really get a decent svr wx event today but if we mix out too much it will be fairly run of the mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 BOX has mid- upper 70's for hills Wed 73 here and 77 for BDL is what I see...reality will probably more more like 70/71 vs 78/79 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 surprised theres not a slight risk for here today Today and tomorrow and all the hallmarks of a see text severe outbreak day. SPC will issue a MD saying watch unlikely and then I'll wind up on the air 50 times with severe weather cut-ins and a million damage photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 surprised theres not a slight risk for here today Seems like a see text is good for now here. There's some cons to get bullish enough for slight risk...lack of falling heights until tonight and the potential dewpoint issue with mixing out. But if the pros outweight the cons, we could see some stuff late today. It would prob be a late bloomer event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Seems like a see text is good for now here. There's some cons to get bullish enough for slight risk...lack of falling heights until tonight and the potential dewpoint issue with mixing out. But if the pros outweight the cons, we could see some stuff late today. It would prob be a late bloomer event. Yeah I think it's after 4 for most areas... but it should spread east fairly easily. SPC is weird with their outlooks for this part of the country. I feel like sometimes they outlook for slight risk when I'm not expecting much at all and other times they see text when conditions are pretty favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 73 here and 77 for BDL is what I see...reality will probably more more like 70/71 vs 78/79 .P AND c both show 75 for ORH and TOL.I don't see how Nyc only hits 73. It's not a chilly air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 P AND c both show 75 for ORH and TOL. I don't see how Nyc only hits 73. It's not a chilly air mass We'll find out soon enough, won't we. Non-downslope flow (light northerly) with 850 temps around +8C is plenty cool for mid-late June. edit: and no, its 73F for ORH http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=box&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&site=BOX&map.x=122&map.y=128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I was thinking the same thing.. Today and tomorrow and all the hallmarks of a see text severe outbreak day. SPC will issue a MD saying watch unlikely and then I'll wind up on the air 50 times with severe weather cut-ins and a million damage photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 We'll find out soon enough, won't we. Non-downslope flow (light northerly) with 850 temps around +8C is plenty cool for mid-late June. edit: and no, its 73F for ORH http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=box&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&site=BOX&map.x=122&map.y=128 Nice low dew point airmass with a crisp evening and large diurnal swings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 FYI... made and pinned a severe wx thread for today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Hills might have trouble getting much past 70F on Wed...even the valley at places like BDL prob won't see 80F.Wednesday and Thursday look much cooler than normal, with low 70s even down to the coast, as the northerly flow behind the front filters cool air south. It seems as if there's still a supply of cold air in eastern Canada near Greenland that is occasionally pressing southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I see this when I click right on the ORH dot on BOX site Fair 73°F 23°C Humidity62% Wind SpeedW 13 mph Barometer29.89 in (1011.8 mb) Dewpoint59°F (15°C) Visibility10.00 mi Last Update on 17 Jun 9:54 am EDT Current conditions at Worcester Regional Airport (KORH) Lat: 42.28 Lon: -71.87 Elev: 986ft. More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather 3 Miles WNW North Grafton MA 7 Day Forecast Taunton, MA NWS Weather Forecast Office TODAY Severe Thunderstorms High: 81 °F TONIGHT Severe Thunderstorms Low: 56 °F TUESDAY Chance Thunderstorms High: 77 °F TUESDAY NIGHT Slight Chc Thunderstorms Low: 55 °F WEDNESDAY Sunny High: 75 °F WEDNESDAY NIGHT Clear Low: 51 °F THURSDAY Mostly Sunny High: 78 °F THURSDAY NIGHT Mostly Clear Low: 55 °F FRIDAY Mostly Sunny High: 79 °F Today A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. West wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Night A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. North wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 75. North wind around 7 mph. Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 51. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Nice low dew point airmass with a crisp evening and large diurnal swings! My favorite in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Wednesday and Thursday look much cooler than normal, with low 70s even down to the coast, as the northerly flow behind the front filters cool air south. It seems as if there's still a supply of cold air in eastern Canada near Greenland that is occasionally pressing southward. The split flow in W Canada has been keeping that colder cP air coming down into Eastern Canada/NE every so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 The split flow in W Canada has been keeping that colder cP air coming down into Eastern Canada/NE every so often.Yup, until we lose the strong ridge over western Canada it will be difficult to experience prolonged warmth. I wonder if warming ENSO will help to sustain that ridge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 The split flow in W Canada has been keeping that colder cP air coming down into Eastern Canada/NE every so often. Yeah...it hasn't taken much to cool it off or at least dry the dews out with that lurking in southern Canada. You can see the gradient on the departures for the month ranging from just below average in SNE to up to -3 in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Nice low dew point airmass with a crisp evening and large diurnal swings! Yeah what a beautiful week. Another June dandy with 70-75F and lows in the 40s to low 50s depending on how you radiate. Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 45. Calm wind. Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 73. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Light south wind. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Yeah...it hasn't taken much to cool it off or at least dry the dews out with that lurking in southern Canada. You can see the gradient on the departures for the month ranging from just below average in SNE to up to -3 in NNE. Must be the western part of NNE. Stations in GYX/CAR bailiwick are all within <1F of norms, with PWM above and CAR/BGR/CON below. I'm at +0.3 compared to my running avg 1998 on, with the 1st three days' heat still just ahead of 12-of-13 days below avg since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 i see a hot period starting on day 6/7 and continuing through the end of the month on the gfs/euro ensemble means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 i see a hot period starting on day 6/7 and continuing through the end of the month on the gfs/euro ensemble meansYup. Bang the drums it's coming for a lon g period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2013 Author Share Posted June 17, 2013 Yup. Bang the drums it's coming for a lon g period Bang this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 wow, just went for a walk, warmer today for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 EC ens didn't look hot to me...at least not for a long period. The pig ridge stays out West and over the Rockies while the mean trough is over the eastern Lakes/NE. It doesn't have to mean chilly or below normal, but when I think of hot in late June I think of 90s. I'm sure EWR will start racking them up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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