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Swooning through June


CoastalWx

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High water taking its toll, some kids went tubing this morning in the farmy and one didn't make it out, FD and state troopers all over the river from New Hartford to Collinsville, sad but it was a dumb idea to even go near the river right now

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High water taking its toll, some kids went tubing this morning in the farmy and one didn't make it out, FD and state troopers all over the river from New Hartford to Collinsville, sad but it was a dumb idea to even go near the river right now

 

Coast Guard chopper flying up and down the river when I walked through

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Yeah these days are best...bluebird and the sun warms the house up from the overnight chill.

Got down to 43F early this morning and already near 70F out there with no humidity at all.

SLK was frosty at 33F but they'll already be hitting the mid-60s here at 11. Quick rebound day.

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Euro ensembles last night tried to bring some heat back in for next weekend. A reverse from yesterday's trend and back to the chances it showed a couple days ago. We'll have to see if we can sneak a couple days in.

 

The signal is definitely there...  but I think there's a disconnect between it and the tendency for convoluted flow N of the border; it will be interesting to see which wins, but the seasonal trend has been nodding toward the N.  

 

Notice the operational Euro drops a buzz-saw down central Canada, and uses it to destroy the signal rather abruptly shortly after D6 or 7?  That's likely the Euro bias of over boring heights out downwind of mid latitude ridges.  I don't see a lot of counter-balancing mass-field that would be necessary to support the presence of -4SD closed "Day After Tomorrow" juggernaut vortex like it has.  I am confident that feature gets tamed in future runs at some point.    

 

If you look closely at the 144 to 168 hour difference, it really illustrates nicely how/why the Euro does this bias -- it appears to almost manufacture a secondary speed max from nothing, carving the U/A mid levels back SW, and then benefits/uses it out in time to usurp the entire height field from 60N to 35N over eastern N/A, because suddenly it has to then conserve the momentum of that "phantom" deepening.  It's fractals at their best -- spontaneous emergent forces superimposing constructively to destroy reality - haha.    If that secondary wind max is weaker ... and I bet it either is, or non-existent as usual, everything changes significantly in the late middle range with the circulation overall.  It could very easily mean that the Euro is blinding its self from an emerging warm pattern -- for the time being.    

 

And this is a notable bias in the Euro for its later middle ranges and onward.  I mean, sure ... there are other reasons not to trust any model beyond D5, but the Euro has more definitive error behaviors than the GFS, which is just inherently like an unmanned fire-hose, spraying randomness all over the landscape every other run in its deeper ranges.  I know the Euro does regressions to smooth for errors; I can almost imagine that some errors escape that clean-up effort and end up ballooning in time, perhaps. 

 

Anyway, the American derived NAO is still concertedly rising through D7.  The last time it motivated that much we had the midland-scaled heat wave 3 weeks ago.  Obviously the wave-lengths at this time of year make that teleconnector trickier to use, but at some point, gaining some 2SD and more should have an influence backward on the flow in perhaps raising eastern N/A heights.  So there is that too. 

 

In the end, could be a wavy boundary N of us with occasional heat/humidity sort of deal, with thunder chances, more so than a death dome of heat.   At least through D10. 

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