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Swooning through June


CoastalWx

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this is one of those "when it rains it pours" literally and figuratively. those showers west of albany are training N to S(?? lol)...probably a localized soaking going on there after getting dumped on yesterday.

Yeah looks to be aiming for us water logged folks down here in northern NJ. Someone might pick up a quick couple of inches while someone 5 miles away gets nothing

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Euro ensembles basically ditched the idea too...but considering they did have a bit of a signal there for some transient heat next weekend for several runs, we'll have to see if that was just a burp run or two and it comes back in the next few days or if it is catching onto another trough ripping down from SE Canada...which has seemed to be the pattern recently.

 

Yeah, and basically I don't have any personal confidence in it.  Part Stockholm Syndrome, part seasonal unrelenting trend ... but it gets hard to visualize success there.   The GFS-based NAO is concertedly rising among the members, but wave-lengths being shortened makes using that tele more difficult than the slam dunk DJFM...A periods.   It can correlate though.   Anyway, yeah we'll see

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this is one of those "when it rains it pours" literally and figuratively. those showers west of albany are training N to S(?? lol)...probably a localized soaking going on there after getting dumped on yesterday.

 

I was just noticing that.  Those probably putting down some big totals upon areas the size of a pixel

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How about Sun/Mon?

 

 

Sun looks ok...think any showers hold off until late afternoon/evening. Might not be totally sunny though...increasing clouds. Mon looks like almost a dirty warm sector, but its kind of diffuse. Probably our warmest looking day (maybe some low 80s in spots?) and the best chance for any high dewpoint fetish crowd. Tuesday morning is FROPA...could be a downslope dandy for SE MA/S CT.

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it does look nice. monday i guess would be be a little warm/humid (mid 80s away from the coast? BDL etc?) but otherwise it's pretty much like +8C 850s and a couple of cP pushes

 

 

Would probably be some cool nights mid/late next week with that airmass...to go with those seasonal sunny days. Hopefully that pans out.

 

 

Looks like Euro extrap beyond D10 might bring in some heat, but its been delaying that out near or beyond D10 for a week now.

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Man we are all going to have to walk around in giant fish nets after dusk. Mosquitoes are going to be wild.

the good news for those with young kids, we're all in by 8:30...LOL.   Last weekend my neighbor did an outdoor movie night and the kids ran around a bit while we cleaned up-next morning they were covered in bites....and that was 4 inches of rain ago....

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Would probably be some cool nights mid/late next week with that airmass...to go with those seasonal sunny days. Hopefully that pans out.

 

 

Looks like Euro extrap beyond D10 might bring in some heat, but its been delaying that out near or beyond D10 for a week now.

 

 

Word!  exactly, and it's one of the reasons I have a bad attitude about bringing in heat.  It's like in the winter time, when you get into one of those eras where it seems the D6-10 always had a long-wave trough carving out but fades as those periods get into the middle range; by and large when that happens, you endure it for a long, long, long-long, long time before the trough actually f succeeds in getting going.   

 

There may be something in the background physics that wants that to be "ridgy" right now, such when the models lose those prevalent signals they're merely scurrying back to the background signal -- the trick is, are those prevalent/more dominating signals really off the table?  Not sure they are the way things have gone since that first heat wave. 

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yeah i saw those popping this morning.

i don't know if you saw, but yesterday they were to the west of the rain shield...like west of BUF area...big long line extending SSW/NNE up into canada. very similar look just smaller today.

yeah lots of fun NB weather this month
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