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Swooning through June


CoastalWx

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Wow did the Euro back way off on this thing.  

 

Thing is, that's unusual for the Euro inside the 4-day lead, to demonstrate this kind of continuity issues.  I wonder if it, too, were bothered by convective processing.  

 

Anyway, here is the machine QPF for ORH from 12z:

 

FRI 00Z 14-JUN  14.8     8.0    1007      80      92    0.02     566     560   

FRI 06Z 14-JUN  11.9     7.4    1006      90      54    0.03     564     558   

FRI 12Z 14-JUN  12.0     6.7    1006      84      72    0.01     561     556   

FRI 18Z 14-JUN  14.1     6.5    1008      85      51    0.06     561     555   

SAT 00Z 15-JUN  14.5     8.8    1008      92      57    0.02     562     555    

 

-vs- the 00z run

 

FRI 00Z 14-JUN  14.4     8.7    1007      89      95    0.08     567     561   

FRI 06Z 14-JUN  11.9     6.2    1004      96      95    0.22     564     561   

FRI 12Z 14-JUN  10.9     3.7    1001      97     100    0.37     560     559   

FRI 18Z 14-JUN   9.4     1.5    1003      95      99    0.44     559     556   

SAT 00Z 15-JUN  10.0     3.9    1005      91      71    0.12     557     552  

 

Seeing the NAM more than halve it's totals, and the GFS looks really rather unraveled aloft with not nearly the same dynamics/mechanical impression, one must wonder if the flood threat will need to be re-evaluated.  

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June is a spring month in SNE always has been, mid to late June is when summer begins, officially and unofficially, met summer is a total misnomer.

 

Its like met spring starting in March. Early March is usually much more "winter" in terms of sensible wx than spring.

 

December here can start off more autumn-like as well. Sometimes we blitz into December with winter wx, but just like June still has a lot of spring murk, December often mixed in still with those greyish days in the 40s and such that remind you of November.

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Wow did the Euro back way off on this thing.  

 

Thing is, that's unusual for the Euro inside the 4-day lead, to demonstrate this kind of continuity issues.  I wonder if it, too, were bothered by convective processing.  

 

Anyway, here is the machine QPF for ORH from 12z:

 

FRI 00Z 14-JUN  14.8     8.0    1007      80      92    0.02     566     560   

FRI 06Z 14-JUN  11.9     7.4    1006      90      54    0.03     564     558   

FRI 12Z 14-JUN  12.0     6.7    1006      84      72    0.01     561     556   

FRI 18Z 14-JUN  14.1     6.5    1008      85      51    0.06     561     555   

SAT 00Z 15-JUN  14.5     8.8    1008      92      57    0.02     562     555    

 

-vs- the 00z run

 

FRI 00Z 14-JUN  14.4     8.7    1007      89      95    0.08     567     561   

FRI 06Z 14-JUN  11.9     6.2    1004      96      95    0.22     564     561   

FRI 12Z 14-JUN  10.9     3.7    1001      97     100    0.37     560     559   

FRI 18Z 14-JUN   9.4     1.5    1003      95      99    0.44     559     556   

SAT 00Z 15-JUN  10.0     3.9    1005      91      71    0.12     557     552  

 

Seeing the NAM more than halve it's totals, and the GFS looks really rather unraveled aloft with not nearly the same dynamics/mechanical impression, one must wonder if the flood threat will need to be re-evaluated.  

south of Pike where the rain has been falling all month is still under the Gun and will be if all the models are correct.

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Its like met spring starting in March. Early March is usually much more "winter" in terms of sensible wx than spring.

 

December here can start off more autumn-like as well. Sometimes we blitz into December with winter wx, but just like June still has a lot of spring murk, December often mixed in still with those greyish days in the 40s and such that remind you of November.

just like September which is mostly summer until the equinox, Met seasons are probably best south of 40 degrees, up here the equinoxes seems to be spot on most years.

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just like September which is mostly summer until the equinox, Met seasons are probably best south of 40 degrees, up here the equinoxes seems to be spot on most years.

 

 

Met seasons are off everywhere I feel like. Met spring and met summer are more accurate further south than our area but its actually worse for met autumn and met winter than our area. South of 40N, met autumn should probably be more like Oct-Christmas and met winter Xmas to end of Feb.

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Its like met spring starting in March. Early March is usually much more "winter" in terms of sensible wx than spring.

 

December here can start off more autumn-like as well. Sometimes we blitz into December with winter wx, but just like June still has a lot of spring murk, December often mixed in still with those greyish days in the 40s and such that remind you of November.

 

 

Autumn 1995 was bar-none the best Fall ever imo.   I was at UML then, Merrimack Valley up in northeast Mass, and we got sharply colder 2nd week of November, followed by snow.   Snow stayed on the ground until that uber thaw near the end of January. 

 

Yeah, I think what is important for the general reader here, is that the whole Meteorological pantheon of seasons is a climatological distinction that applies to the whole hemisphere.  

 

The Dec 21 winter is an astronomical distinction.  

 

What that means is, the coldest period of time for the N hemisphere over hundreds of years of data, is DJF.  Warmest of course being JJA.  Otherwise, the hemisphere is in a state of flux toward cold or hot.  

 

It is true that for area closer to 40N, March 1 is hardly transition anywhere.  But that is very much a warm flux date for the south lands of the hemisphere.  

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south of Pike where the rain has been falling all month is still under the Gun and will be if all the models are correct.

 

Yeah, I agree .. in principle, but I'm wondering if this trend isn't settled just yet.   Huh.   By the way, SPC has IL/IN/OH in High Risk now.  wow.

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Just remembered I had a dream last night about Hawaii. For some reason, I was staying at a beachfront estate but the mountains were extraordinarily close to the back of the house. It was very beautiful. I then began discussing that a massive snowstorm was going to hit the mountains behind us, and it shouldn't affect us. However, so much snow fell that there was a giant mountain wide avalanche that killed us all and collapsed our estate into the ocean.

 

LOL

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Your all idiots

No sun? Cold? Lol

70 clouds and big wind. Nice comfortable wx. little on cool side w no sun. ii would think most agree u would be more accurate posting in nyc thread in less you add a disclaimer that for every post states. Its a torch "Here, in my corner of sw ct,near nyc" . Looks like u may still cash in on 2 inches of rain thur nite/fri.
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I don't believe there is such a thing. The PDS part refers to the headlines, but they are still considered tornado watches. The enhanced headline can be used with other watch types like thunderstorms and flash floods as well.

 

Yeah it's referring to the headline but within the NWS and SPC they do call them "PDS watches" to distinguish the severity of the threat.

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