Swooning through June

[powderfreak]

The damaging drought was much better weather for outdoor activities. Days of upper 60s to mid 70s and low dewpoints was perfect.

This stuff kind of sucks...though like Phil, I do find some of these stronger coastals fascinating. It reminds me of winter looking at some of the features and makes analyzing model data more interesting.

Yeah as funny as the whole drought thing was, that was by far the best stretch of outdoor weather I can remember in a while. I could go for like 12 straight days of sunshine right now.

Maybe we could see the tops of the mountains once in a while too...instead of claustrophobic low ceilings at like 2k feet.

[MainePhotog]

Anyone that thinks this has been a great pattern this month is either drunk or lived in London most of their life. Wretched

 

I love it. Not drunk and never lived in London. But to each their own. I am sure your hot, humid, ball-clinging, massive toilet paper use, weather will be coming. Delayed but not denied.

[N. OF PIKE]

BSE continues with orwell as author

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

 

Yeah as funny as the whole drought thing was, that was by far the best stretch of outdoor weather I can remember in a while. I could go for like 12 straight days of sunshine right now.

Maybe we could see the tops of the mountains once in a while too...instead of claustrophobic low ceilings at like 2k feet.

That was the nicest May we have seen in years. Cool nights and warm days.

[Damage In Tolland]

I love it. Not drunk and never lived in London. But to each their own. I am sure your hot, humid, ball-clinging, massive toilet paper use, weather will be coming. Delayed but not denied.

To each their own but I just don't understand why you like cool cloudy wet dank flooding windy wx in summer. If you are an indoors man then ok, but for summer stuff it blows dongs

[CoastalWx]

To each their own but I just don't understand why you like cool cloudy wet dank flooding windy wx in summer. If you are an indoors man then ok, but for summer stuff it blows dongs

 

What summer stuff are you actually doing?

[Typhoon Tip]

The 06z NAM was just a tad less coherence aloft with features parental to the un-seasonal low, but it didn't really register much difference in the surface reflection strength and QPF on that run.   However, the 12z, also a little more over less coherent, we are starting to see the QPF come a bit back to reality.   

 

Looks to be about half what the exotic 18 and 00z runs were yesterday, though still hefty at over 1.5 total for BOS.  But at least it is not 3-5.   The system had too compact a look for this time of year, and that's kind of like evidence at the scene of a crime that gets an investigator started. 

 

I have been suspicious that the American model types (and the GFS looks pretty guilty at the moment too ) may have been over benefiting from convective feedback.  The thing is ... convective feedback can be real.  Sometimes the convection does usurp the synoptics of a system by means of vast latent heat releasing into downstream ridging, and/or physically induced height falls and so forth.  You have to know when to accept it as more plausible and not.   Was sort of on the fence with this one.  Then NCEP (Cisco) made reference to feedback in the discussion yesterday as though they were giving a nod to it being real.

 

This system would have benefited by strong overrunning convection lowering heights enough to get a piece of N stream dynamics to work in and phase.  Because a good bit of the low's strength prior to was derived [perhaps] by over-zealous convective input [ as modeled ], the mid levels already had a lot of momentum to work with when it inserted its q-vectors over top.   Among other reason, that can all actually really happen.  We have seen significant summertime coastal storms in the past, as outlined by Vortex95's thread, and common experience...  The problem is, if the model(s) were off on the convective params as the system chugged along, it is inherently going to be weaker through many layers, and the mid levels end up less phased.   I think we are seeing the NAM correcting toward less antecedent convective feedback in this case, and subsequently, less phasing aloft.  

[weathafella]

Kevin the brilliant sun in northern California yesterday and today has been spectacular. Coming into ugliness tomorrow evening on my return though. 2009 redux

[Damage In Tolland]

What summer stuff are you actually doing?

Friends pools are frigid if not heated. Lawns can't get cut, my kids have had numerous rainouts on softball games. Too many to count. No one can tan. Can't go to beach. Do I need to go on?

[moneypitmike]

Friends pools are frigid if not heated. Lawns can't get cut, my kids have had numerous rainouts on softball games. Too many to count. No one can tan. Can't go to beach. Do I need to go on?

 

Sure they can get cut--the weekends have been nice for that.  And, they sure are green--no chemicals needed!

 

What a beautiful fall-like day today is.  Clouds/sun with cool air advecting in. 

 

60.9/52 off a high this morning of 62.8

[moneypitmike]

And here we go again.........the historic dust bowl of 2013 rolls on.

 

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WHICH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED FLOODING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE SHORELINE OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
THERE REMAINS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTATION FOR
STORM-TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS AN AREA WITH MOIST
SOILS AND SWOLLEN RIVERS AND STREAMS...HAS RESULTED IN THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR A MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Sure they can get cut--the weekends have been nice for that. And, they sure are green--no chemicals needed!

What a beautiful fall-like day today is. Clouds/sun with cool air advecting in.

60.9/52 off a high this morning of 62.8

And there's so much moisture in the ground and water draining from hillsides certain parts are soaked . I've seen several yards that people mowed and their mowers and wheels sunk in mud and water and just tore it up in spots

[weatherwiz]

Ryan should have flown out to IL/IN/OH area today.  

[moneypitmike]

And there's so much moisture in the ground and water draining from hillsides certain parts are soaked . I've seen several yards that people mowed and their mowers and wheels sunk in mud and water and just tore it up in spots

 

Total, complete, unmitigated disaster.

[Typhoon Tip]

To each their own but I just don't understand why you like cool cloudy wet dank flooding windy wx in summer. If you are an indoors man then ok, but for summer stuff it blows dongs

 

His personal druthers are less likely the reason for his opposition.  Him, Will and a few others ... from where I am sitting, they have taken to getting a kick out of being "contrarian" toward just about anything that comes out of your keyboard, hand-held ...or whatever it is you use to interface with the Web. 

 

The motivation for doing so could be anything, but I suspect the primary is that they feel you are a spinning just about observation you make about what modeling suggests in truth, particularly when said truth goes again some self-satisfying result.  

 

Sometime you will be right, sometime you will not -- kind of like that clown Joe B, though I give you more credit.  His deal is that he's trying to win fanship and a following, but I digress.  Your thing is that you want whatever given season it is, to hyper express its self, ...unwaveringly at that.  So when we are in a clear April mode in June, it does not honestly come across as though you really understand that in lieu of the spinning.  

 

I'm sure on some level you do.  Otherwise, you wouldn't have any inclination to ask Scott why he prefers this crap in summer.  That act of doing so suggests there is an awareness of what is really going on.   And THAT is what the collective barbing and ribbing and contrarian posting is all about, them being sarcastic about truth avoidance.  

 

It's all good.   Next hang out it'll all be laughs and ales.  

 

Eheh, you know .... how little any of this posting schit really means, or should mean, to anyone's life?  Pretty incredibly meaningless.  Yeah, there's the social aspect, and for a few it's a primary outlet (sadly).  But beyond that, I wonder how much time is collectively wasted involved with this stuff -- 

[radarman]

Ryan should have flown out to IL/IN/OH area today.  

 

Marsh says SPC going high risk at 1630

[MainePhotog]

His personal druthers are less likely the reason for his opposition.  Him, Will and a few others ... from where I am sitting, they have taken to getting a kick out of being "contrarian" toward just about anything that comes out of your keyboard, hand-held ...or whatever it is you use to interface with the Web. 

 

The motivation for doing so could be anything, but I suspect the primary is that they feel you are a spinning just about observation you make about what modeling suggests in truth, particularly when said truth goes again some self-satisfying result.  

 

Sometime you will be right, sometime you will not -- kind of like that clown Joe B, though I give you more credit.  His deal is that he's trying to win fanship and a following, but I digress.  Your thing is that you want whatever given season it is, to hyper express its self, ...unwaveringly at that.  So when we are in a clear April mode in June, it does not honestly come across as though you really understand that in lieu of the spinning.  

 

I'm sure on some level you do.  Otherwise, you wouldn't have any inclination to ask Scott why he prefers this crap in summer.  That act of doing so suggests there is an awareness of what is really going on.   And THAT is what the collective barbing and ribbing and contrarian posting is all about, them being sarcastic about truth avoidance.  

 

It's all good.   Next hang out it'll all be laughs and ales.  

 

Eheh, you know .... how little any of this posting schit really means, or should mean, to anyone's life?  Pretty incredibly meaningless.  Yeah, there's the social aspect, and for a few it's a primary outlet (sadly).  But beyond that, I wonder how much time is collectively wasted involved with this stuff -- 

 

No need to read into it, John. I love this weather, pure and simple. There is NO ulterior motive.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think Will or myself love this weather and do it to be a contrarian. As stated, these cstls are fascinating from a met standpoint and therefore I will root for the most interesting outcome.

 

My preferred wx, sunny and 75.

[ORH_wxman]

His personal druthers are less likely the reason for his opposition.  Him, Will and a few others ... from where I am sitting, they have taken to getting a kick out of being "contrarian" toward just about anything that comes out of your keyboard, hand-held ...or whatever it is you use to interface with the Web.

 

 

Dead wrong.

 

Some of us actually don't like heat and humidity. I know that can be tough for people who like it to understand that, but its true. I call it as I see it. I mentioned in this thread just a few posts back how the Euro ensembles may hint at a chance for heat around 6/23....I guess I wrote that to be "a contrarian" accordng to your analysis.

 

In realityville, the pattern has been crappy for heat the past week and looks to stay that way for another 7-10 days until perhaps the final week of the month. Just because we correct Kevin's often incorrect analysis/claims, doesn't mean we are contrarians.

[Tropopause_Fold]

His personal druthers are less likely the reason for his opposition.  Him, Will and a few others ... from where I am sitting, they have taken to getting a kick out of being "contrarian" toward just about anything that comes out of your keyboard, hand-held ...or whatever it is you use to interface with the Web. 

 

The motivation for doing so could be anything, but I suspect the primary is that they feel you are a spinning just about observation you make about what modeling suggests in truth, particularly when said truth goes again some self-satisfying result.  

 

Sometime you will be right, sometime you will not -- kind of like that clown Joe B, though I give you more credit.  His deal is that he's trying to win fanship and a following, but I digress.  Your thing is that you want whatever given season it is, to hyper express its self, ...unwaveringly at that.  So when we are in a clear April mode in June, it does not honestly come across as though you really understand that in lieu of the spinning.  

 

I'm sure on some level you do.  Otherwise, you wouldn't have any inclination to ask Scott why he prefers this crap in summer.  That act of doing so suggests there is an awareness of what is really going on.   And THAT is what the collective barbing and ribbing and contrarian posting is all about, them being sarcastic about truth avoidance.  

 

It's all good.   Next hang out it'll all be laughs and ales.  

 

Eheh, you know .... how little any of this posting schit really means, or should mean, to anyone's life?  Pretty incredibly meaningless.  Yeah, there's the social aspect, and for a few it's a primary outlet (sadly).  But beyond that, I wonder how much time is collectively wasted involved with this stuff -- 

 

 

i. am. a. robot. 

[TalcottWx]

What do you mean?

He means lets see how long you can keep up your streak of forecasting disastah

[weathafella]

Dear wrong.....

[TalcottWx]

i. am. a. robot. 

LOL

 

i.cannot.compute.emotion

[CoastalWx]

LOL at the GFS for Tuesday. Pegs NNE, but certainly a risk of more heavy rain here too.

[Damage In Tolland]

What an awful day even today is. Winds gusting to 40 and cloudy with temps in low 60's. misery

[Typhoon Tip]

Dead wrong.

 

Some of us actually don't like heat and humidity. I know that can be tough for people who like it to understand that, but its true. I call it as I see it. I mentioned in this thread just a few posts back how the Euro ensembles may hint at a chance for heat around 6/23....I guess I wrote that to be "a contrarian" accordng to your analysis.

 

In realityville, the pattern has been crappy for heat the past week and looks to stay that way for another 7-10 days until perhaps the final week of the month. Just because we correct Kevin's often incorrect analysis/claims, doesn't mean we are contrarians.

 

 

I do not believe you are entirely honest here, Will --  "dead wrong"?   No.    

 

I'm not going to take the time to add up all the antithetical posts you've made specifically toward kevin, to show what is patently obvious.  Maybe it is an unconscious thing, who knows. 

 

But you absolutely do get a kick out of abutting the content of his post, otherwise you would not do it so much.   

 

Also, you just said, some people don't like heat and humidity.  So that gives justification to thwarting his perception of it in the runs?  You are backing yourself into admitting a bias, there.  You should not carp on a post "just because it's heat and humidity"

 

Perhaps that's not what you meant, but your own word imply that because you don't summery weather, it must be okay to pound on those that do.  

 

We had a argument a month or so ago what I accused you pretty blatantly, and I admit, because you pissed me off (and I feel I was justified in being aggravated) of seeing things through that cold filter, and causing you to not give a truly objective view point on weather analysis.  To which, of course, you instead accused me of "loosing it".

 

Sorry dude, you just so much as admitted "weather" you realize it or not.

 

I may have to actually block a "moderator"

[SouthCoastMA]

psychological evaluations are in order for some people in this thread

[Tropopause_Fold]

meltdown.

[ORH_wxman]

I do not believe you are entirely honest here, Will --  "dead wrong"?   No.    

 

I'm not going to take the time to add up all the antithetical posts you've made specifically toward kevin, to show what is patently obvious.  Maybe it is an unconscious thing, who knows. 

 

But you absolutely do get a kick out of abutting the content of his post, otherwise you would not do it so much.   

 

Also, you just said, some people don't like heat and humidity.  So that gives justification to thwarting his perception of it in the runs?  You are backing yourself into admitting a bias, there.  You should not carp on a post "just because it's heat and humidity"

 

Perhaps that's not what you meant, but your own word imply that because you don't summery weather, it must be okay to pound on those that do.  

 

We had a argument a month or so ago what I accused you pretty blatantly, and I admit, because you pissed me off (and I feel I was justified in being aggravated) of seeing things through that cold filter, and causing you to not give a truly objective view point on weather analysis.  To which, of course, you instead accused me of "loosing it".

 

Sorry dude, you just so much as admitted "weather" you realize it or not.

 

 

Ribbing Kevin for wishcasting or interpreting a model incorrectly is different than claiming I like cooler weather "to be a contrarian". We all like to rib posters from time to time.

 

 

Sorry, your psycho-analysis should probably be left for off topic. I could on and on about why I think you post the way you do, but its not appropriate for here.

[CoastalWx]