Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Euro tries to sneak in a brief warm sector early next week with tha lakes storm. If we were able to get it into it, then we'd have a severe threat on Monday. I was noticing this too -- that has a GL-NE special look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 which models are you quoting, link? I think every 12z global gives us a solid soaker at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I think every 12z global gives us a solid soaker at this point. exactly-big deal if it's north or south-we all get b/w 1-3 inches of rain and a cold day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Other modeling ends rain by noontime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Euro tries to sneak in a brief warm sector early next week with tha lakes storm. If we were able to get it into it, then we'd have a severe threat on Monday. verbatim that's an awesome setup, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Other modeling ends rain by noontime There's residual moisture throughout the day, even on the GFS. Could see a few passing showers into the afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 verbatim that's an awesome setup, no? It would have potential...it looks kind of "dirty" though. Its not a cleaner looking warm sector and there's likely to be some sort of a warm front leading it hanging out around CNE/NNE so I'd be concerned about a lot of cloud debris. A few hours of sun though is all it takes sometimes. But in any case, its 6-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Do you guys see any significant warm-ups later this month on into early July? Most of the last several summers have been hot...even in Newport and I'm hoping we catch a break this summer. I certainly don't mind the rain and I hope we get more. The South Coast gets screwed on so many summer thunderstorms the grass often turns brown by mid-july down here, but this may not be a problem this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Now that we are inside of 4.5 days on the operational Euro, it would be rarer for it to perform poorly on the events Thur-Frid. It's interesting ... what we have here is a very winter like pattern, only redrawn some 25 to 30 DMs higher in heights -- and I am not saying that because I am fantasizing about snow. Let's put that to bed right off the bat. Objectively, it is a winter-like scenario to inject a SW through the western ridge, and then have a piece of cooler heights N of Lake Superior subsume it. In essence, it is a "strong" phase, utilizing minimum jet mechanics. But it kind of argues for how temporal spacing/geometry of features in the flow is just as important as having strong jet maxes. Jet strength is more important for cyclogenesis, but the former facets have their place. Anyway, this is a pretty classic NJ model low. It's almost hard to really call it a Miller B though, because I do not see much evidence for primary abandonment followed by coastal detonation scenario. The llv thickness are not low enough. Cold, viscus BL is what is needed for secondary forcing. But I'm sure it's debatable. But man, as a gardening enthusiast this sucks. Couple of my tomatoes' leaves are turning yellow, which is symptomatic of over-watering. Yet we got convection and debris rains yet to come today, ...then a possible 2" wind whipped thing on Friday we really don't need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 You're talking garden-variety storms though, correct? hail/wind no real concern? Yeah nothing really severe..probably one or two strong ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Other modeling ends rain by noontime The euro could easily come back wetter again at 00z. These setups in the warm season cause havoc to model QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The euro could easily come back wetter again at 00z. These setups in the warm season cause havoc to model QPF.Thanks. Thought it had backed off some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Euro is 3"-4" for NYC/LI. 3.24" to be exact for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 It would have potential...it looks kind of "dirty" though. Its not a cleaner looking warm sector and there's likely to be some sort of a warm front leading it hanging out around CNE/NNE so I'd be concerned about a lot of cloud debris. A few hours of sun though is all it takes sometimes. But in any case, its 6-7 days out. Sounds good. Hopefully there are some good lapse rates involved, anyway...has that type of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Thanks. Thought it had backed off some You should worry more about timing rather than actual amounts. Euro is slower because it phases the two s/w's and closes off in the mid levels over PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 it's shown the same low track for several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 KHFD is going to get 1"+ from that storm. I got .20" here and was barely grazed by some yellows on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Wow even BDL not warm sectored. Kevin FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Wow even BDL now warm sectored. Kevin FTL.huh? The warm front is into Mass lol.sw winds and sun the last 2 hours ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 huh? The warm front is into Mass lol.sw winds and sun the last 2 hours ftw Winds are still NE at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Winds are still NE at BDL.I meant here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Seems to be a shallow marine layer....valley is still socked in with low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 huh? The warm front is into Mass lol.sw winds and sun the last 2 hours ftw BDL has NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Front struggled AWT. It's going to be almost impossible to reach the pike, esp from 84 east. Maybe for about 45 min it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 BDL has NE winds.You posted I lost and BDL had warm sectored so are you drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 You posted I lost and BDL had warm sectored so are you drunk? Edited. Meant "not." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Seems to be a shallow marine layer....valley is still socked in with low temps. Looks like 70s at KTOL and upper 50s at ORH. Find your warm-front somewhere between those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 nice popups easy to see where the front is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Front is SW of the actual cloud line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 nice popups easy to see where the front is Yeah, basically Wareham MA to Westerly RI and Danbury CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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