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Swooning through June

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I suspect that CT and RI may briefly warm sector this afternoon before occlusion/cold boundary presses through toward evening.   Hi res imagery shows the llv strata/murk shield is moving/eroding NE ...albeit slowly.  It took 3 hours to move from NYC to roughly Canaan/Willimantic line.  

 

SW winds in SW CT and around NYC shows that there's lacking counter-flow so the w boundary should actively move ...if also assisted by the June sun.  Not sure if gets much farther N than the CT/RI borders with MA, but not impossible either.   

 

If NYC had cleared out but the winds were still waving flags from the NE I'd say no... 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Actually the NAM closed the book on warm sector hopes in Boston on the 18z run yesterday ... but yeah, maybe it should have seen that sooner?  

 

Looking at hi res vis, the mid and high levels have cleared off for the most part, leaving the proverbial bowl full of puke below.  Looping shows the SW edge struggling to erode N. Even under a June sun, this unique topographical effect of having the 2 to 3K elevations west, and a cold marine boundary later E that is our eternal plight, when the bowl fills up it's hard to empty it out.   I've seen this time and time and time .... n times again over, where the synoptic rains that saturated and filled the metaphor moves on off, and stagnates the air mass in its wake.   If this exact same system were in the Plains, the warm front at low levels would be up in the latitudes of central NH by now.  

 

Just going by experience alone, I knew yesterday that keeping the warm boundary south would be prudent.   Still .. it is just 10:45am, so we'll see what the sun can do.. 

 

Yeah I kept the WF south in my forecast too, but I was just showing how awful the NAM was...and it was a 6hr forecast!  Today's 6z NAM had the WF through BOS by 12z. :axe:

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I suspect that CT and RI may briefly warm sector this afternoon before occlusion/cold boundary presses through toward evening. Hi res imagery shows the llv strata/murk shield is moving/eroding NE ...albeit slowly. It took 3 hours to move from NYC to roughly Canaan/Willimantic line.

SW winds in SW CT and around NYC shows that there's lacking counter-flow so the w boundary should actively move ...if also assisted by the June sun. Not sure if gets much farther N than the CT/RI borders with MA, but not impossible either.

If NYC had cleared out but the winds were still waving flags from the NE I'd say no...

Yeah we're thinking it gets to the pike or maybe just south of there. It's starting to make progress now
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

June 09 was chilly and drier, this month besides the two start of the month hot days has been chilly and extremely wet, 600% of normal precip so far.

 

 

June '09 was pretty wet in ORH with 6.5" of precip...though def drier in BOS with just over 3 inches.

 

BOS had 4 days above average the entire month and finished almost -5...that is sick for June. Which is why it tied 1982 as the coldest June on record in BOS.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

June '09 was pretty wet in ORH with 6.5" of precip...though def drier in BOS with just over 3 inches.

 

BOS had 4 days above average the entire month and finished almost -5...that is sick for June. Which is why it tied 1982 as the coldest June on record in BOS.

yea PVD was about normal precip too, was a miserable month for sure. Without those two torch days to start this month we are headed in a similar way for a while.

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
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two warm muggy above normal days ahead, all sites  above normal this month BOS almost +4 it is frigid for sure!

 

Above normal is the new cold regime 

 

79 81 respectively and this weekend nothing but sun and 76 78/  What a great pattern we are in timed for weekend delights.

 

The warm sector will be luxurious tomorrow and Wed.  

 

Long live summer!

 

61/60 perfect night, windows WIDE open

a nice toasty 56F at 11:11 on 6/11 IMBY, rain just ended. BSEIIIIIIIII

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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You have to wonder if models are overdoing Qpf with the end of week deal. It's really more like an Alberta Clipper . Scooter said they've been overdoing amounts in summer on stratiform rain. Maybe most folks see around an inch not 3-4

They underdid the Friday night rain and pretty much nailed last night.RI CC got smoked again last night with a lot of 2.5 amounts.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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You have to wonder if models are overdoing Qpf with the end of week deal. It's really more like an Alberta Clipper . Scooter said they've been overdoing amounts in summer on stratiform rain. Maybe most folks see around an inch not 3-4

 

This is a little different. This will have formidable mid level lows which will help throw precip further north. You probably want to be near the low center though for heaviest rain.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Model guidance in general tends to underdo our QPF in rain events if we establish an onshore component of ML winds for more than 18 hours (whether its from the south or east or northeast)....this happened in friday night's rain event...models generally had 2-3 inches but we saw a pretty solid area of 4"+ along the south coast. The placement was off but you know the max area was going to be too low on the models. Even the areas that did not jackpot still had a solid 2-3"+.

 

The key is getting ML component onshore for 18+ hours. It works almost every time. I think BOX did a paper on this and the climo for it works very well. The end of the week system is a bit different in that the onshore component will not be that long lived so we'll have to rely a bit more on winter-time like features to give us heavy rain. Granted, it looks like a winter storm in the mid-levels.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Model guidance in general tends to underdo our QPF in rain events if we establish an onshore component of ML winds for more than 18 hours (whether its from the south or east or northeast)....this happened in friday night's rain event...models generally had 2-3 inches but we saw a pretty solid area of 4"+ along the south coast. The placement was off but you know the max area was going to be too low on the models. Even the areas that did not jackpot still had a solid 2-3"+.

 

The key is getting ML component onshore for 18+ hours. It works almost every time. I think BOX did a paper on this and the climo for it works very well. The end of the week system is a bit different in that the onshore component will not be that long lived so we'll have to rely a bit more on winter-time like features to give us heavy rain. Granted, it looks like a winter storm in the mid-levels.

Sure does look winterish.

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HalloweenGale

HalloweenGale

Posted
Posted

Watching and waiting for this evening/night:

 

000
FXUS61 KBOX 111434
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1034 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...ALL OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION IN A MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE. THE WARM FRONT
HAS MANAGED TO EDGE INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE TEMPS. AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S BUT STILL VERY MOIST.

OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS
SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HUDSON VALLEY AND LONG
ISLAND...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LIMIT OUR DIURNAL HEATING...AND
THUS THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY. IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING...WILL SEE MORE
DESTABILIZATION AND THIS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR STRONGER STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STILL HAVE THE FLOOD WATCH UP EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN CT AS HEAVIER
RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE WE EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH
WITH DECENT MID LEVEL COOLING AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL FROM -8 TO 12C.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION BUT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF CT/RI AND
SE MA. GFS/NAM GENERATING SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CT AND RI BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WILL
DEVELOP WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY EVEN FURTHER. MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS STILL AROUND 1.5" BUT LOW PROB OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS CT/RI AND POSSIBLY SE MA. WE
DO HAVE ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR BUT LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LIMITING
FACTORS.

TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A TOUGH ONE AS WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS SNE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR 70S TO THE S. SO BUST POTENTIAL IS LARGE. WE
USED THE NAM DEPICTION OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH HAS IT STALL JUST S
OF THE MASS PIKE NEAR MA/CT/RI BORDER. SO WE HAVE 70S ACROSS CT/RI
AND PORTIONS OF SE MA...COOLING TO THE 60S TO THE N AND UPPER 50S
S NH AND NE MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE
EVENING WITH EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS DIMINISHING. BUT A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING
IN FROM THE N OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. WE HAVE HIGHEST
POPS CONFINED TO THE N.

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