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Swooning through June


CoastalWx

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Well I don't consider those high dews. Esp from that station.

 

 

I'll start getting uncomfortable if the ASOS dews get over about 63-64F. If its like a 71/66 type rain, then its noticably stickier than this 65/58 stuff which feels more refreshing than anything.

67/65 at CEF .TD seems a bit high

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GEFS are definitely flatter later this week.

 

Yeah, I was going to follow up Will's jest that there were no signs...  Not sure I entirely agree there, because there is some concerted effort among the members to lift the NAO.  

 

Not directed anyone in particular:  I believe it to be a false-hood to think the NAO does nopt play a part in modulating New England's summer time variability.  There are refereed papers that back us into that assumption based on discussion pertaining to hurricanes and soil moisture and et al, enough so that you can't effect those frequencies without also effecting temperature and rain.   There's no disconnect there. But I digress...  

 

The 00z GFS members were more robust looking with continental ridging and heat appeal extending to at least the OV.  so in a sense one has to capitulate there are signs there. If the NAO rise does take place and the wave-lengths permit, heat could easily spread farther east at the peril of current operational run's thinking.  

 

Having said that, the "tempo" of the atmosphere may not be strumming that way -- I mean, sometimes you just get the feeling that Pedro M. is going to blow a 5-2 lead in game 5 of the 1998 ALCS - haha -- and then it happens.  We'll see.

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Yeah, I was going to follow up Will's jest that there were no signs...  Not sure I entirely agree there, because there is some concerted effort among the members to lift the NAO.  

 

Not directed anyone in particular:  I believe it to be a false-hood to think the NAO does nopt play a part in modulating New England's summer time variability.  There are refereed papers that back us into that assumption based on discussion pertaining to hurricanes and soil moisture and et al, enough so that you can't effect those frequencies without also effecting temperature and rain.   There's no disconnect there. But I digress...  

 

The 00z GFS members were more robust looking with continental ridging and heat appeal extending to at least the OV.  so in a sense one has to capitulate there are signs there. If the NAO rise does take place and the wave-lengths permit, heat could easily spread farther east at the peril of current operational run's thinking.  

 

Having said that, the "tempo" of the atmosphere may not be strumming that way -- I mean, sometimes you just get the feeling that Pedro M. is going to blow a 5-2 lead in game 5 of the 1998 ALCS - haha -- and then it happens.  We'll see.

 

Yeah the idea of some sort of low is valid for sure, but the GFS op just looks up to it's old ways of conv feedback. Did you see the 6z TS it had for the Cape?

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The thing is, we all love wx and have a passion for it in some shape or form. We love to see interesting wx so it's natural to have some sort of emotion attached to it. Now if you're 34 yrs old and cry when it changes to rain...perhaps you may have issues...but a sense of disappointment certainly is allowed.

 

 

Oh sure, absolutely.. it's human.   

 

But, just the same, I sense a deeper patterning than that.  There is definitely a bias around here to go along with that.  Hey, it doesn't matter -- it's better to be biased about the weather than biased about government and low and act out in errant/erratic/violent defiance ( to put it diplomatically ), so obsess away....

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I don't -- if you read that whole thing, it was clear, that/those experience of my youth taught me the futility of that emotional involvement.   In fact, I find the greater breadth of Meteorologica facets more interesting now as an adult, as it has allowed me to open eyes.  When the local timescale climate variability occurs, I can drop the fantasy on a dime and move into the new paradigm/perspective with equal passion.   But it's purer cerebral in nature.   It's why I sometimes wonder if this is not a weather board in the stricter sense of what that should mean.

 

I couldn't care any less if their is snow pack in the winter -- although, I do admit to one guilty pleasure in that regard. I like to see if the weather can challenge that seemingly impenetrable 36", between storm snow pack barrier.  It seems there's something magical about that depth of snow, where the atmosphere always manages to cook something up that compresses, or melts, or does whatever to ensure the snow doesn't get any deeper.  And I am talking about elevations below 1,000 feet.  Obviously this does not apply to the Berks, Greens and Whites.  I will also admit that if it is drab weather for more than a week's worth of time, that can wear on me -- but it's less about emotion/mood, and more about being annoying that I can't play Disk Golf, or worrying about my garden and other outdoor stuff.   

disc golf!  Can't say I haven't played devens when its been raining...or snowing for that matter..but certainly makes it a less than ideal round

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Shame we can't use Allen's site, but this is what I mean by western canada ridge.  You can see the heat dome in the srn plains, but that ain't going too far northeast. That ridge in western canada is going to allow troughs to move right into the northeast.

 

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There's an interesting tendency in the posting behavior on this forum.  It seems a given day has to either be a top-10 gorgeous day in order for the forum to appreciate summer, otherwise, the pendulum swings violently past fair-and-balanced perspective into a gang-bang effort to depreciate summer.  

 

So much so in fact that people start posting about cold coastals and what-if it were snow scenarios/fantasies.   ...in June mind you.   Makes me laugh.  It's still summer, and all we can take from this is that we are [most likely] headed for a cool, wet-anomalous June. 

 

Meh, it's just more of that same old bag of allowing one's emotions to be plugged in and guided by whatever the weather is doing, and "weather" that connects with their personal druthers for experience.   Rather than treating it purely as a science and a wonder.  

 

I used to be that way as a teenager in all honesty.  The ghost storm of all storms, January of 1987 cured me of that once and for all.  I was emotively keyed up to a fever pitch by NWS' scrolling tickers along the bottom of the TV warning of a 1978 redux.  Waking up in the morning to dim sun, biting cold and a few flurries ... no words. Just hate.  

 

 

Really hard to take these posts seriously sometimes.... Tip, you made several posts during the last system (yes, in June!!) regarding the "what if" this was snow. 

 

Please don't try to spin this off as you don't think about snow in June.  We all do it brother.

 

 

watching this radar and imagining if it were snow...  

 

 

You know ... imagine if one of those came out of the eastern Gulf in late November, when there was a fresh antecedent -2 SD air mass sitting over New England.   As Sandy showed us, winter and summer can french kiss and get down right nasty together.  

 

60" of snow ?   I'm sure at some point in the million year history of New England's geology something like that freak has happened, where a TC went up the E coast and just lops it's self over a hefty cold dome.   0 vis snow for 8 straight hours and 7" an hour.   

 

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Yeah the idea of some sort of low is valid for sure, but the GFS op just looks up to it's old ways of conv feedback. Did you see the 6z TS it had for the Cape?

 

Ha, I know... that thing is insane. What pig.  That could have possible damaging winds do to isallobaric pulsing alone. 

 

But, in one regard there is a very subtle phase there between that vort max leaving the rough lat/lon of Iowa, and the intermediate stream westerlies sagging S through the Lake at around 96 hours... such that it hooks negative as a kind of NJ model low.    

 

It looks very winter-like, but ... timing a low amplitude phase is akin to Fermi trying to clock an electron during a double slit experiment.  12z version hasn't dropped the idea entirely.   And as you say, there may be some convective processing in these solutions that are causing a bit of a zealous surface reflection.  The mechanics aloft see a little weak for that much strength beneath.  Maybe there's some intervening layers of wind maxing.       

 

I do remember a case study when an undergrad, where a July nor-easter replete with CCB took place with raw upper 40s and low 50s rains and wind here in SNE.  I remember seeing the satellite with classic cyclogen evolution too, and the purpose of the lecture was not to assume summer and winter can't perform winter and summer. 

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disc golf!  Can't say I haven't played devens when its been raining...or snowing for that matter..but certainly makes it a less than ideal round

 

 

You know...I live about a mile from that course and have never played it - haha.  I play Buffumville, Barre Falls, Pyramids ...Maple Hill...we tend to bounce around those courses.  

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Why would Tim Kelly tweet that out?

 

I could see some folks having to... its all personal preference.  There were some posters on here that said they turned the heat on Fri/Sat...all depends on your preferences.  If the GF gets too cold that's the only thing that might make me put the heat on.  Otherwise there's no way I'm paying for heat in June regardless of how cold it gets, lol.  That's more just me being stubborn though.

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Really hard to take these posts seriously sometimes.... Tip, you made several posts during the last system (yes, in June!!) regarding the "what if" this was snow. 

 

Please don't try to spin this off as you don't think about snow in June.  We all do it brother.

 

 

That is not what I was talking on the last system -- waxing dreamily about "what ifs".  

 

I knew you were going to confuse the two.  I spoke directly to a plausible case study where a TS would get forced into a fusion with a cold/snow thickness pattern.  That's completely different than drifting off in to a predisposed la-la land of winter obsession.   And no, Sandy almost did just that -- hello.

 

Stop taking things personally .... please. 

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That is not what I was talking on the last system -- waxing dreamily about "what ifs".  

 

I knew you were going to confuse the two.  I spoke directly to a plausible case study where a TS would get forced into a fusion with a cold/snow thickness pattern.  That's completely different than drifting off in to a predisposed la-la land of winter obsession.   And no, Sandy almost did just that -- hello.

 

Stop taking things personally .... please. 

 

 

No it isn't. You posted you imagined if Friday's system was snow, lol.

 

Its not an uncommon thing to do for a weather enthusiast or met...anyone who appreciates the structural baeuty of a CCB in a coastal storm.

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Shame we can't use Allen's site, but this is what I mean by western canada ridge.  You can see the heat dome in the srn plains, but that ain't going too far northeast. That ridge in western canada is going to allow troughs to move right into the northeast.

 

attachicon.giff348.gif

 

Hey what happened there ?   Is it in an attempt to privatize/profit ??   

 

I got not beef with that, if that is the case -- I mean, the man worked hard on putting together some various products, why not attempt to benefit from that.  But it is somewhat unfortunate that there are so many awesome tools out there that are being whisked away from the common users.  

 

In a way, doesn't that risk creating a kind of elite cadre of those in the know?  

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No it isn't. You posted you imagined if Friday's system was snow, lol.

 

Its not an uncommon thing to do for a weather enthusiast or met...anyone who appreciates the structural baeuty of a CCB in a coastal storm.

 

I said, imagined.... what?!     That's semantics dude.   You're using that to try and espouse I am guilty of that which I criticize, using semantics.  No.

 

I cited, correctly mind you, that Sandy approached doing that. That's science.  And it is purely within the realm of reasonability to speculate if a purer fusion could take place.

 

What the majority of people here do, is post graphics of 10" of rain and then immediately couch it in 'what if it were snow' -- No No no that is NOT NOT NOT the same thing.   

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That is not what I was talking on the last system -- waxing dreamily about "what ifs".  

 

I knew you were going to confuse the two.  I spoke directly to a plausible case study where a TS would get forced into a fusion with a cold/snow thickness pattern.  That's completely different than drifting off in to a predisposed la-la land of winter obsession.   And no, Sandy almost did just that -- hello.

 

Stop taking things personally .... please. 

 

Ok dude... not worth arguing about.  Just showing we all think about what ifs that involve snow/cold all year round. 

 

If you want to think you saying "wow imagine if this was snow" is prudent in a meteorological sense because you are thinking TC case studies... vs. someone who says "wow imagine if we had this storm track and pattern in January" and can rub that off as drifting off to la-la land...

 

Why can't anyone just discuss what they want?

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Ok dude... not worth arguing about.  Just showing we all think about what ifs that involve snow/cold all year round. 

 

If you want to think you saying "wow imagine if this was snow" is prudent in a meteorological sense because you are thinking TC case studies... vs. someone who says "wow imagine if we had this storm track and pattern in January" and can rub that off as drifting off to la-la land...

 

Why can't anyone just discuss what they want?

 

What I am pointing out is the "predisposition" to do so, collectively at that...  That is what's funny to read.  I started out this chain of dialogue merely remarking that it appears like the day at hand has to be perfect in the sense of absolutely utopia for any acknowledgement as to the value of summer, otherwise, the pendulum swings over-compensatingly into how worthless it is.

 

It just is what it is... I didn't impugn any particular individual.   Not sure why you and Will have to try to subsequently dress me up in those clothes, when it is not objectively true.  That says a lot ;) 

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I said, imagined.... what?!     That's semantics dude.   You're using that to try and espouse I am guilty of that which I criticize, using semantics.  No.

 

I cited, correctly mind you, that Sandy approached doing that. That's science.  And it is purely within the realm of reasonability to speculate if a purer fusion could take place.

 

What the majority of people here do, is post graphics of 10" of rain and then immediately couch it in 'what if it were snow' -- No No no that is NOT NOT NOT the same thing.   

 

Fair enough... we can dream about snow in June if its science related. 

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What I am pointing out is the "predisposition" to do so, collectively at that...  That is what's funny to read.  I started out this chain of dialogue merely remarking that it appears like the day at hand has to be perfect in the sense of absolutely utopia for any acknowledgement as to the value of summer, otherwise, the pendulum swings over-compensatingly into how worthless it is.

 

It just is what it is... I didn't impugn any particular individual.   Not sure why you and Will have to try to subsequently dress me up in those clothes, when it is not objectively true.  That says a lot ;)

 

No one is dressing you up dude... all I said was its ok to think about snow in June brother... we all do it!  And we are just giving you some grief...its what we do on here.

 

You are right that we are a winter-loving bunch on this board.  You can't deny that winter is likely a large part of why you love meteorology.  We all see your posts in the winter (they are some of the best meteorological write-ups) and your passion for winter storms.  Its hard not to be captivated by snow, any time of the year.

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