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TS Andrea Remnants Forecast/Obs Disco


WxUSAF

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I think you meant Fredrick Wx and I was wondering the same thing, he may already be under water with his snorkel and unable to type at this point.

Subtropics is no doubt peering off of a ledge somewhere.

I personally plan to sleep in gloves and a sweater tonight because of the frigid cold.

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Euro is under 2" for DC metro....how good are the models with QPF in the summer?...Wes?....Is there any reason to believe we will get 4"?..i hope so

 

The euro is the best model in terms of QPF.   Tropical systems are dangerous and can flare up at night if they are truly tropical. The models sometimes underdo the very heaviest rainfall associated with tropical systems but often have the scale (areal extent of the heaviest too big).  That and the lack of any really heavy rainfall with the storm right now makes it hard to know how to handle it.    If the GFS track is right, I'd hesitate in dismissing it's QPF across our area despite the current lack of heavier precip but could be too scared of what tropical systems are capable of to dismiss the GFS type scenario despite the lighter amounts being forecast by the euro.   I can't tell much about the euro track but it does look like the front ahead of the system strengthens to our north.  That boundary could be the focus for heavier precip tomorrow during the day.   it would be nice to know what the boundary and storm track is doing in the in between period of the positions and strength shown on the free euro site.  I'm glad I'm retired. 

 

The GFS saturday rainfall looks a little strange....does the euro have anything like it? 

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The euro is the best model in terms of QPF.   Tropical systems are dangerous and can flare up at night if they are truly tropical. The models sometimes underdo the very heaviest rainfall associated with tropical systems but often have the scale (areal extent of the heaviest too big).  That and the lack of any really heavy rainfall with the storm right now makes it hard to know how to handle it.    If the GFS track is right, I'd hesitate in dismissing it's QPF across our area despite the current lack of heavier precip but could be too scared of what tropical systems are capable of to dismiss the GFS type scenario despite the lighter amounts being forecast by the euro.   I can't tell much about the euro track but it does look like the front ahead of the system strengthens to our north.  That boundary could be the focus for heavier precip tomorrow during the day.   it would be nice to know what the boundary and storm track is doing in the in between period of the positions and strength shown on the free euro site.  I'm glad I'm retired. 

 

The GFS saturday rainfall looks a little strange....does the euro have anything like it? 

 

 

no trailing low on the euro....once the precip shuts off tomorrow night shortly after midnight, we are done...

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Woke up to pouring rain, pulled up radarscope on the phone to find that I've been getting absolutely TRAIN'D for the past hour and a half with 1.32" in the auto-bucket on the roof since midnight. The reliable/manual CoCoRaHS gauge out back out does the auto-bucket by 10-15%. :yikes:

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