MN Transplant Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I want bendy trees. WxUSAF: Small shortwave at 500 that kicked Andrea out in the first place using the moist tropical front it left behind as a precip bomb when the two overlap. Yep. RGEM has it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Thanks...precip bomb for sure. GFS didn't have anything like that before (although it did have another round of precip Saturday a couple times recently). Wonder what the King will say... Could convective feedback be in play with this run? Even if RGEM had it as MN noted above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Could convective feedback be in play with this run? Even if RGEM had it as MN noted above? Not in this case. With surface dew points above 70 and a PWAT of 2.16" a 2" precip bomb given the shortwave is completely believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I want bendy trees. WxUSAF: Small shortwave at 500 that kicked Andrea out in the first place using the moist tropical front it left behind as a precip bomb when the two overlap. Looks like the small shortwave induces a wave on the frontal zone. Anyway, the GFS track is worrisome in terms of QPF for west of Richmond in terms of wet and possible flash flooding. The double wham-mo over us is also interesting. I want to go fishing monday so I hope it doesn't screw up the river too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Looks like the small shortwave induces a wave on the frontal zone. Anyway, the GFS track is worrisome in terms of QPF for west of Richmond in terms of wet and possible flash flooding. The double wham-mo over us is also interesting. I want to go fishing monday so I hope it doesn't screw up the river too much. Yeah, a flood watch is going to have to be hoisted sooner or later. (For some reason the 24hr FFG isn't available, so this is the 12 hr, but it's about the same, just add .5 to 1") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Yeah, a flood watch is going to have to be hoisted sooner or later. (For some reason the 24hr FFG isn't available, so this is the 12 hr, but it's about the same, just add .5 to 1") ffg_MD_12.gif I would be surprised to see any flood products come out of this. Really doesn't seem like it's going to be a big rain maker for us in the DC / Baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I would be surprised to see any flood products come out of this. Really doesn't seem like it's going to be a big rain maker for us in the DC / Baltimore area. It depends on the track. right now it is too far east to bullseye Baltimore but maybe not for Richmond. I doubt the NWS will issue anything until the track becomes more evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 RNK issued a FW... but its been hoisted more because of today's rain as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I would be surprised to see any flood products come out of this. Really doesn't seem like it's going to be a big rain maker for us in the DC / Baltimore area. It depends on the track. right now it is too far east to bullseye Baltimore but maybe not for Richmond. I doubt the NWS will issue anything until the track becomes more evident. Well I've just been made a fool: New event. Flash Flood Watch from 6/7/2013 6:00 AM to 10:00 PM EDT for Montgomery County, Carroll County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Euro is a tad east of the GFS, heaviest stripe of precip up the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Well I've just been made a fool: New event. Flash Flood Watch from 6/7/2013 6:00 AM to 10:00 PM EDT for Montgomery County, Carroll County. More information. The FFW is mainly east of the BR... so looks like they are going with GFS/EURO combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I would be surprised to see any flood products come out of this. Really doesn't seem like it's going to be a big rain maker for us in the DC / Baltimore area. oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Well, now it just seems like the models are battling over who can give us the most precip over the next 36 hours. DCA 18z GFS: 4"+ 18z NAM: ~3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Euro is a tad east of the GFS, heaviest stripe of precip up the bay. That's still in play until we know the actual track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I've been in Richmond the past two days. Haven't seen any rain here. Looks like I've picked up nearly 2.00" of rain on my PWS back in Roanoke. Not looking forward to driving in the rain to head back home tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 With fairly strong SSW flow @ h5 and 850 I would think there will be some training at times over some areas. Should be interesting to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Holy GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 18z GFS is super wet...4 to 5 inches of rain I-95 corridor... 18z NAM not far off either with 3 to 4 inches... 18z GFS also does same thing 12z GFS did but a little less on the QPF... drives Andrea through Friday night... Sat morning lull... then Sat early afternoon brings in a complex from the SW moving NE... 18z NAM chuckles at such a scenario and basically gives us nothing Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Well, now it just seems like the models are battling over who can give us the most precip over the next 36 hours. DCA 18z GFS: 4"+ 18z NAM: ~3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 ^ No thanks... 6-10" is too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 969990_4827111798061_1429702687_n.jpg Jesus, Noah better lend me his ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 nam4k probably 'wrong' but with globals spitting out the totals they are.. prob will be some really high numbers in spots unless it busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Congrats NY/SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Too bad Ian's map isn't a clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Too bad Ian's map isn't a clown Get your rubbers ready this could get messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Too bad Ian's map isn't a clown speaking of.. where is leesburg04? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 speaking of.. where is leesburg04? He will be in Ohio sun tanning while we will be boating here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 speaking of.. where is leesburg04? he doesn't play with us anymore. He said something about the administrators being a bunch of little beeyotches and took his ball and left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 he doesn't play with us anymore. He said something about the administrators being a bunch of little beeyotches and took his ball and left. Too many drought posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Get your rubbers ready this could get messy. putting the words rubbers and messy in a single sentence made me puke on my computer. Bill is in the mail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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