WxUSAF Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 HPC's take: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Small tor threat in southeastern VA and on the Delmarva tomorrow as Andrea works up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Small tor threat in southeastern VA and on the Delmarva tomorrow as Andrea works up this way. chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 6z GFS purples me. It's been a while since the last purpling. Good times are here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 chasing? I'd probably head to Delmarva tomorrow if I wasn't still burned out from the Plains chase. Maybe if it looks more exciting tomorrow, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 HPC's take: I still think the rain along the BR and the eastern slopes of the mountains further west will be greater than that. I actually hope not, but a se flow is a precip producer back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I still think the rain along the BR and the eastern slopes of the mountains further west will be greater than that. I actually hope not, but a se flow is a precip producer back here. True. I'd hedge more in the 2-4 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Doesn't rain from tropical lows expand further west then modeled in this type of situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I still think the rain along the BR and the eastern slopes of the mountains further west will be greater than that. I actually hope not, but a se flow is a precip producer back here. I've only looked at this morning's NAM, but the circulation is so small that there actually isn't a SE component to the wind at any level out by the BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 TS Warning is up for Lower Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort... would not be surprised, however very unlikely, to see it nudged north at the 11 am advisory... but I would gather on when transition to sub-trop would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Doesn't rain from tropical lows expand further west then modeled in this type of situation? The snarky part of me notes that with the winter coastal lows going back to the Dec. 26 2011 bust, the precip shields with those sure did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I've only looked at this morning's NAM, but the circulation is so small that there actually isn't a SE component to the wind at any level out by the BR. Ah, well that's different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Probably the only tropical storm in the past 5 years that will have minimal adverse effects on the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Doesn't rain from tropical lows expand further west then modeled in this type of situation? In this specific case much will hinge on the exact track of the center of circulation. Heaviest axis of precip will be narrow. Very compact circulation moving through. The only way heavier precip expands west in this case is if the center ends up passing to the left of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Canadian goes BOOM and is 5''+ area wide. Would not be surprised to see isolated amounts over 8'' if that were to verify. Depending on what this thing does I think I will be traveling to the lower Chesapeake bay to see if I can measure some decent sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I've only looked at this morning's NAM, but the circulation is so small that there actually isn't a SE component to the wind at any level out by the BR. I would guess that the heaviest stripe will be just west of the track as a weak front develops to the north of it and the moisture overruns the boundary As you note the current forecast track would not put a lot of upslope into the mountains near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 6z GFS was advertising two big slugs of moisture coming through...first tomorrow afternoon and second in the 8pm-midnight time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I would guess that the heaviest stripe will be just west of the track as a weak front develops to the north of it and the moisture overruns the boundary As you note the current forecast track would not put a lot of upslope into the mountains near here. lol what do you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 6z GFS was advertising two big slugs of moisture coming through...first tomorrow afternoon and second in the 8pm-midnight time frame. 12z GFS is super wet. Westerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 FWIW, I know this isn't the tropical storm circulation itself, but right now is a good example of what happens back here with a SE wind and moisture, which we have both of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 In this specific case much will hinge on the exact track of the center of circulation. Heaviest axis of precip will be narrow. Very compact circulation moving through. The only way heavier precip expands west in this case is if the center ends up passing to the left of guidance. Wouldn't a weaker system have a less defined back side cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novachris Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 12z GFS is super wet. Westerly track. close to 6 inches just west of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 HPC's take: I think about 75 miles further west on the precip and that 5"+ will occur between DC and OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 12z GFS is super wet. Westerly track. It smokes us Saturday afternoon. Andrea's gone by then...what's it from (don't have time to look)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I want bendy trees. WxUSAF: Small shortwave at 500 that kicked Andrea out in the first place using the moist tropical front it left behind as a precip bomb when the two overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 FWIW, I know this isn't the tropical storm circulation itself, but right now is a good example of what happens back here with a SE wind and moisture, which we have both of right now. yep, near perfect summer-time conditions here. overcast, cool, and steady soaking rain. 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I want bendy trees. WxUSAF: Small shortwave at 500 that kicked Andrea out in the first place using the moist tropical front it left behind as a precip bomb when the two overlap. 4-5 inches LWX CWA wide per 12z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 I want bendy trees. WxUSAF: Small shortwave at 500 that kicked Andrea out in the first place using the moist tropical front it left behind as a precip bomb when the two overlap. Thanks...precip bomb for sure. GFS didn't have anything like that before (although it did have another round of precip Saturday a couple times recently). Wonder what the King will say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Thanks...precip bomb for sure. GFS didn't have anything like that before (although it did have another round of precip Saturday a couple times recently). Wonder what the King will say... I say it's gon rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 I say it's gon rain You're a pro forecaster for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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