NJHurricane Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Not sure if this overlaps any existing threads, if I missed them mods please delete/merge... Seems to be divergent model camps...some bring heaviest qpf up spine of appalachians to our west, others nearer us or juuuuusssst offshore. Feels like winter playing pin the max qpf tail on the donkey. Curious to see if we start to converge on a fall line N and W axis as seems to happen in these scenarios. Either way I see Mt Holly is out in front again with the *potential* impacts of heavier rain with briefing package. Jon in Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The GFS has been keeping the moisture right of track (almost in continuation without regard to interaction with the trough) while the Euro eventually shifts it to left-of-track as Andrea's center interacts with the approaching trough and we get the "squeeze" of moisture due to the east winds being pushed into the frontal boundary. More often than not when tropical systems push up the coast with a front nearby the boundary becomes a focal point for heavy rains...and that boundary often is left of track. It seems like the GFS wants to keep this tropical whereas the Euro is picking up on the frontal boundary/trough and showing the transition. I may be wrong on the GFS' thinking but it seems that it shows the heavier rain remaining right of track and is disregarding the influence of the trough in the region. Andrea will very likely be post-trop at this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 This is definately an IMBY request (feel free to delete it)...I work for a school and we are trying to decide if we will be able to have our outdoor graduation this evening at 7:00PM. We are in eastern Berks county. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 This is definately an IMBY request (feel free to delete it)...I work for a school and we are trying to decide if we will be able to have our outdoor graduation this evening at 7:00PM. We are in eastern Berks county. Thoughts? The start may be fine but towards the end you may get into some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 its gonna rain, book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 am not surprised the gfs nudged the heaviest rains west to align along I-95. won't be shocked if they nudge just a hair farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The start may be fine but towards the end you may get into some rain. well that thought failed miserably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 12z euro has 2-3 inches from now till sat morn for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Do we make an obs thread or do they go in this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Do we make an obs thread or do they go in this one? in here will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 what are those secondary precip max blobs that rotate into the area after andrea on the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 what are those secondary precip max blobs that rotate into the area after andrea?It looks like the actual remnants of the COC of Anrea. The initial batch looks like frontegenic forcing out ahead of the main vorticity. then, as the "core" of Andrea wraps up by us, brings that 2nd batch it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 what are those secondary precip max blobs that rotate into the area after andrea on the gfs? From the MA thread: Small shortwave at 500 that kicked Andrea out in the first place using the moist tropical front it left behind as a precip bomb when the two overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 It looks like the actual remnants of the COC of Anrea. The initial batch looks like frontegenic forcing out ahead of the main vorticity. then, as the "core" of Andrea wraps up by us, brings that 2nd batch it seems. , then there is another after andrea goes through sat eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 It really would not surprise me if some areas approach 8" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 From the MA thread: Small shortwave at 500 that kicked Andrea out in the first place using the moist tropical front it left behind as a precip bomb when the two overlap. ahhh thanks....the gfs is on its own, the euro doesn't have anything like that once andrea passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 latest NAM and NAM hi res also pretty substantial qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 NWS THE GFS IS SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW FORMING IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA ANDWILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE AFEW MORE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THAT OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THISWAVE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY ANDWE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO PUSH INFROM THE WEST. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE, WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS POPUP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HEATING. ANY THAT DEVELOPWOULD LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 ahhh thanks....the gfs is on its own, the euro doesn't have anything like that once andrea passes by. Yes it is, if the GFS or the NAM 4KM are right we will probably all drown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Yes it is, if the GFS or the NAM 4KM are right we will probably all drown. yea, i looked at the gfs h5 map. The first initial heavy blob i believe is with the warm front lifting north...2nd area is with andrea, and the third is with that h5 vort that swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 yea, i looked at the gfs h5 map. The first initial heavy blob i believe is with the warm front lifting north...2nd area is with andrea, and the third is with that h5 vort that swings through. At least the winds will be minimal so we do not have to worry about power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 raining from maine to cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 0.34" in the gauge already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 It looks like the actual remnants of the COC of Anrea. The initial batch looks like frontegenic forcing out ahead of the main vorticity. then, as the "core" of Andrea wraps up by us, brings that 2nd batch it seems. Looks like an upper air distrubance that has left Dallas and now is rotating around the bottom of the trough associated with Tropical Storm Andrea.... now if this were winter a truly negative NAO would have slowed all 3 pieces for a triple phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Light rain on and off here in the exalted Boro of National Park NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Going to be watching WPC page tommorow for MPD (mesoscale precip discussion)if one is issued...recently became aware of this product, is it relatively new? Or is it just renamed version of some othet product...or am i.just clueless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Storm total rainfall so far, 0.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 .73 in PTW, around .50 in RDG, .22 in PHL so far. Hi res modeling (take it with grain of salt) has heaviest rains in western burbs...4" amounts not out of the question. Fits in the "west of 95" thinking that a few of us have had with the heaviest rain. Other thing I'll add -- even though Berks/Lehigh/Northampton aren't under flash flood watches, really think there will be some flooding in the usual suspect streams (Little Lehigh) in those areas, perhaps into Monroe County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 0.47 at this early hour in Tamaqua. Not sure what to expect for the backyard as it seems I'm slightly west of the "heaviest" rainfall area, but I'll be running through northern NJ into southeastern NY state today and then back to the Lehigh Valley. Figure on seeing some of that heavier action in my travels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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