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Post Tropical Storm Andrea


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Definitely looks like a new LLC has developed east of the previous one under the new MLC.  It's amazing how quickly a new surface vortex can develop when forcing from the mid-levels is strong enough (strong w, and by continuity, strong horizontal convergence in an environment of pre-existing cyclonic vorticity). 

 

Indeed, and with the recent center relocation and faster forward motion, the overall vertical wind shear has decreased near the center. Unfortunately for Andrea's sake, its also moved into a region of cooler SSTs that are only marginal for maintenance of a TC and that combined with the typical minima in convective activity during daylight has lead to a degraded infrared satellite convective appearance.

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000

URNT12 KNHC 061809

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012013

A. 06/17:53:40Z

B. 28 deg 54 min N

083 deg 55 min W

C. 850 mb 1356 m

D. 46 kt

E. 029 deg 13 nm

F. 106 deg 41 kt

G. 023 deg 13 nm

H. 993 mb [9kt winds at the surface on drop]

I. 16 C / 1522 m

J. 21 C / 1529 m

K. 15 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 5 nm

P. AF302 0301A ANDREA OB 03

MAX FL WIND 41 KT 023/13 17:47:30Z

Banding on radar indicating center

;

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Guest Imperator

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 18:10Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2013
Storm Name: Andrea (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3 seeall.png
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 17:53:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°54'N 83°55'W (28.9N 83.9167W) viewmap.png
B. Center Fix Location: 109 miles (176 km) to the WSW (241°) from Gainesville, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,356m (4,449ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 106° at 41kts (From the ESE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the quadrant at 0:23
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the quadrant at 0:87
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 023/13 17:47:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT 087/26 18:04:08Z
Banding on radar indicating center

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Eye seemed to relocate a tad west, center is still looking well defined.  No landfall yet.

 

For what it's worth, it's only an eye if it has convection all the way around it. Otherwise it's just the center of circulation (COC) or even simpler, just "the center". That being said, it has got a really nice semi-circle of rain. No question on radar now where the center is..

post-741-0-68099200-1370545447_thumb.png

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I haven't seen any surface obs that approach TS conditions other than earlier in the Tampa Bay region (unless I am missing something).

Yeah only two location on land that have seen minimal and I do mean minimal TS conditions 

 

This was about the best numbers I could find so far with a extended period of borderline TS conditions

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=cwbf1

 

And then this location for a few hrs had borderline TS conditions

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=CDRF

 

Other than that though its been really meh on winds, I was thinking of riding down to Swanquarter tomorrow morning but now I am not so sure, if I thought I had a solid shot of some gust over 50 then I would do it but....... :whistle:

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Yeah only two location on land that have seen minimal and I do mean minimal TS conditions 

 

This was about the best numbers I could find so far with a extended period of borderline TS conditions

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=cwbf1

 

And then this location for a few hrs had borderline TS conditions

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=CDRF

 

Other than that though its been really meh on winds, I was thinking of riding down to Swanquarter tomorrow morning but now I am not so sure, if I thought I had a solid shot of some gust over 50 then I would do it but....... :whistle:

 

 

Yes and as it shows Cedar Key gusted to 51 (44 knots) at one point but overall I am having trouble finding a solid area of max winds.

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Recon in the center right now... extrapolated pressure at 991.5 hPa. Max SFMR winds at 46 knots. I'd venture to say the storm peaked in between recon missions as the satellite and radar appearance has degraded somewhat early this afternoon. 

This was really akin to Debby last year in that the system collapsed in the last several hours before landfall. I highly doubt that the landfall intensity was higher than 35 kt, if not lower, given the degradation in the appearance due to baroclinic processes.

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Andrea was NYC's ninth wettest tropical storm/hurricane/remnants I could find...

date.................amount........
Sept 1882.......10.63"
Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane
Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene
Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie
Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria
Sept 1938.........5.74" Long Island Express
Sept 1934.........5.48"
Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd

June 2013.........4.77" Andrea
Aug 1879..........4.59"
Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle
Oct 1877...........4.07"
Aug 1893..........3.94"
Sept 1904.........3.85"
Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob
Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria
July 1960..........3.56"
Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol

Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

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