DopplerWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Did this storm really need to be named? It closed off for a few hours after ingesting a lot of dry air. It met all criteria for a ts so yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 anyone noticing the storms as they approach the coast south of SRQ to the southern tip of the everglades? i wonder if it's maybe encountering the off-shore land-breeze and it's acting as additional enhancement. as well, there is a pretty decent squall-line by tropical standards headed towards EYW attm from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Not sure if its breeze but man here in naples thunder is constant in the distance..rain picking up for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 radar out of BYX is lighting it up in a very nasty way offshore down there for you. as well, you think that squally segment heading into EYW will end up crashing into that line of storms just off-shore from you, or you think maybe it's actually trying to shove the convective band onshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Since Andrea is streaking at this late hour... GHCC has a bunch of new color scales to choose from Kinda cool 10 different IR tables 6 different WV tables Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 It met the criteria for being named. It's a typical June storm, so I don't know why everyone's standards are so high. Because it only met tropical storm criteria for a few hours because it was getting chocked off by the dry air. As expected about 6 hours ago, the dry air has completely enveloped the COC and now Andrea looks like an open wave. Just feels wrong to name storms that we know are weakening. Does look like a decent tornado threat for Central and South Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 12 years ago this week a badly sheared less than purely tropical storm and its post tropical remnants did a number around here. Always time for another center reformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Because it only met tropical storm criteria for a few hours because it was getting chocked off by the dry air. As expected about 6 hours ago, the dry air has completely enveloped the COC and now Andrea looks like an open wave. Just feels wrong to name storms that we know are weakening. By open wave, you don't think it has a closed circulation. Center is exposed, but I doubt it is open, myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Not sure if it will come ashore here that line but the one coming now sounds wicked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Because it only met tropical storm criteria for a few hours because it was getting chocked off by the dry air. As expected about 6 hours ago, the dry air has completely enveloped the COC and now Andrea looks like an open wave. Just feels wrong to name storms that we know are weakening. Does look like a decent tornado threat for Central and South Florida. Structurally it looks about the same as when it was named 6 hours ago..if anything the convection just east of the center is deeper than earlier. The convection is going to come and go and the system is going to stay lopsided, but it's a typical June slop-storm. It's not weakening at the present however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 00z gfs pummels the eastern carolinas up the coast with sig rainfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I'm totally looking forward to the drive from Sarasota to Fort Lauderdale tomorrow. Hell, if that feeder band is onshore by the time I start driving, I may just go storm chasing instead. We're seeing light to moderate rain here in SRQ and have been for the past 6 hours or so. The heaviest activity will be here early tomorrow. I love going on vacation and having a TS form a few hundred miles away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 By open wave, you don't think it has a closed circulation. Center is exposed, but I doubt it is open, myself. Okay I exaggerated there, but yes, the CoC is exposed. If you go by the Weather Channel, it is not only exposed, but 50 miles west of all the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Because it only met tropical storm criteria for a few hours because it was getting chocked off by the dry air. As expected about 6 hours ago, the dry air has completely enveloped the COC and now Andrea looks like an open wave. Just feels wrong to name storms that we know are weakening. Does look like a decent tornado threat for Central and South Florida. Okay I exaggerated there, but yes, the CoC is exposed. If you go by the Weather Channel, it is not only exposed, but 50 miles west of all the convection. Yes Andrea is not a well organized tropical cyclone, but it fulfills the necessary requirements since it has tropical storm force winds, deep convection (despite being asymmetrical), and a closed relatively well defined circulation. I've seen far worse looking tropical cyclones (Alberto 2006 comes to mind). In fact, I'd be cautious to say that Andrea is weakening at this time, as convection is beginning to re-fire during the diurnal maximum. As a mid-latitude trough starts to pick up the TC, upper-level divergence will increase over the system and provide a mechanism for large scale accent over Andrea. It's all very reminiscent to Alberto 2006 again which abruptly intensified as it came under the influence of a steepening mid-latitude trough, where Alberto was placed in the right entrance region of an upper level jet. Don't be surprised if we see a deepening episode as Andrea approaches the FL shoreline, where we see a impressive comma head like structure that baroclinically enhanced TCs often obtain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 850mb center roughly 26.6N, 86.2W based on Recon, 1001.9mb extrap edit: next set of obs had 1000.9mb extrap min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Closed on the back end with 45 kt FL (850 mb) winds in the SE Quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 850 center and sfc center appear to be stacked within reason. The FL center dropsonde had a surface windspeed of 9 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 40kt/1001mb at 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 850 center and sfc center appear to be stacked within reason. The FL center dropsonde had a surface windspeed of 9 kts. In addition there are some SFMR obs that are in the 40 knot range that are not that rain contaminated. It wouldn't be that farfetched to see the NHC go with 40 knots for the 09z Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 63kt flight level, SFMR 44kt outside of convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 63kt flight level, SFMR 44kt outside of convection Looks like we are seeing some deepening tonight! Comma head like structure starting to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 You can also see good evidence of deepening on the long-range Tampa radar. It shows the early stages of a comma head developing, with convection having increased markedly in the eastern semicircle of the center in the past 3 hours. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Looks like we are seeing some deepening tonight! Comma head like structure starting to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 A lot of ~50kt SFMR observations in moderate precip NE of the center, extrap at least down to 1000.4mb Center also seems to have jumped NE some, at least at 850mb 063200 2731N 08520W 8427 01521 0056 +160 +160 107043 045 047 019 00 063230 2730N 08521W 8433 01510 0051 +161 +161 108043 044 049 019 00 063300 2729N 08522W 8431 01509 0048 +161 +161 105046 048 052 022 00 063330 2727N 08524W 8426 01516 0045 +161 +161 110043 046 051 022 00 063400 2726N 08525W 8428 01511 0044 +162 +162 112043 044 047 018 00 063430 2725N 08527W 8430 01505 0040 +164 +164 114044 045 048 017 00 063500 2724N 08528W 8433 01502 0040 +163 +163 117048 049 048 017 00 063530 2723N 08529W 8433 01502 0037 +163 +163 121045 047 047 014 00 063600 2721N 08531W 8417 01513 0033 +163 +163 121044 047 049 013 00 063630 2720N 08532W 8434 01498 0029 +165 +165 132042 047 049 013 00 063700 2719N 08533W 8426 01497 0024 +166 +166 134037 045 050 022 00 063730 2718N 08535W 8414 01516 0026 +166 +166 127033 039 050 023 00 063800 2717N 08536W 8441 01484 0027 +167 +167 123028 030 047 024 00 063830 2716N 08537W 8431 01495 0025 +168 +168 131027 031 043 017 00 063900 2714N 08539W 8431 01494 0021 +169 +169 138023 027 041 011 00 063930 2713N 08540W 8425 01496 0013 +173 +173 134025 026 043 011 00 064000 2712N 08541W 8428 01492 0013 +173 +173 124025 030 044 013 00 064030 2711N 08543W 8417 01501 0013 +174 +174 129024 028 044 014 03 064100 2710N 08544W 8441 01473 0007 +174 +174 135016 018 040 012 00 064130 2709N 08545W 8422 01494 0004 +167 +167 130015 015 034 008 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Comma head like structure starting to develop. If it were a wintertime storm, da comma would be hawt. For tropical: nawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 998.1mb extrap Center roughly 27.0N, 85.9W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 If it were a wintertime storm, da comma would be hawt. For tropical: nawt. Well not for a pure tropical entity where an upper level anticyclone is completely diabatically driven. Instead, we have mid-latitude dynamics that are playing a helping hand in encouraging upper-level divergent outflow. Plenty of tropical cyclones have undergone intensification through this avenue. 998.1mb extrap Center roughly 27.0N, 85.9W Looks like its trying to tuck in under the convection as the convection builds westward. This is Alberto 2006 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 000 URNT12 KNHC 060702 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012013 A. 06/06:44:30Z B. 27 deg 02 min N 085 deg 53 min W C. 850 mb 1412 m D. 40 kt E. 052 deg 11 nm F. 117 deg 49 kt G. 050 deg 31 nm H. 999 mb I. 16 C / 1528 m J. 19 C / 1519 m K. 18 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 5 nm P. AF303 0201A ANDREA OB 09 MAX FL WIND 63 KT 087/63 06:03:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I does really look like the center is trying to tuck in under those storms be nice to see it wrap storms all the way around the llc, at least I got something to watch since I am stuck at work till 7am lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Recon just did another center pass (this time S/N) 996.4 extrapolated. Max winds should be in the outbound leg. Also nice TRMM Pass: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Couplet on radar approaching Tampa/Brandon and according to law enforcement there is a tornado on the ground with it, this couplet is about to pass through some densely populated areas at the worst possible time with most people in bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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