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tstorm threats this weekend and beyond


forkyfork

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SPC gives us nothing...

 

Means nothing really.  

 

Just all dependent on how much heating we can achieve.  I only briefly looked through things so not sure if we will see a great deal of heating, but several models do develop 1000 Cape across CT later on.  If anything, CT and western RI...along with SW MA would stand the best chance for any action.  

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...SRN NEW ENGLAND/LWR HUDSON VLY/NJ THIS AFTN...

SFC HEATING IN NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLEARING ON SW SIDE OF CLOUD

SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH CAPE COD AREA SFC LOW MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT

OF SCTD STRONG AFTN/EVE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN ASSOCIATED ZONE

OF WEAK LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MA...RI...ERN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112007Z - 112100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL/LOCALIZED THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...MAY EXIST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF
CLEARING ACROSS FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE MID-70S F. A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WAS ALSO OBSERVED LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SRN CT/RI. SEVERAL
SHOWERS/LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A RIBBON OF ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY
WEAK...ONE PERSISTENT TSTM HAS BECOME ANCHORED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL CT AND HAS EXHIBITED OCCASIONAL WEAK LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION. A LOCALIZED/MARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG-SVR WIND GUST OR
TWO...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...MAY EXIST INVOF THE
BOUNDARY GIVEN MODERATELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND E-NELY SFC
WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 06/11/2013

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