Feb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 As the block fades (and the AO- regime is forecast to bottom out shortly and then fade, probably ending during the first week in January +/- a few days), I suspect that will change. FWIW, here are the mean high and low temperatures for DCA during AO- regimes in January when the ENSO 3.4 anomaly was -1.0 or below: AO: -3 or below: Mean high: 41.0; Mean low: 25.5 -2.99 to -1.00: Mean high: 43.5; Mean low: 28.9 -0.99 to 0: Mean high: 45.2; Mean low: 30.0 0 to +0.99: Mean high: 48.1; Mean low: 31.7 A similar outcome should be expected with respect to IAD. Hence, barring a resurgence of severe blocking, a milder regime looks quite likely for January. Can't trust models 48 hours out, i'm not trusting anything 2 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro looks even further ots i think .. still zilch n of nc/va border thru 72, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 even cape cod struggles for flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks better for the clipper early next week tho, precip increase over all of VA and into DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks better for the clipper early next week tho, precip increase over all of VA and into DC area Yay for clippers, looks like thats how we'll do most of our snow this year..Not really unexpected in my view, I expected about an average snowfall winter for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yay for clippers, looks like thats how we'll do most of our snow this year..Not really unexpected in my view, I expected about an average snowfall winter for the area. looks pretty similar to the last on this run.. stripe from near chicago toward sw va and lighter up in this area .. ctr tracks thru nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks better for the clipper early next week tho, precip increase over all of VA and into DC area What do the temps look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What do the temps look like? maybe brief mix to start in extreme sw va but 0c line never gets much past the nc/va border and heads south during the passage... 2m temps look to get a bit above 32 before precip from SE VA up toward DC area but drop back below into the evening tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 maybe brief mix to start in extreme sw va but 0c line never gets much past the nc/va border and heads south during the passage... 2m temps look to get a bit above 32 before precip from SE VA up toward DC area but drop back below into the evening tuesday How far north is the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 How far north is the precip? .05 runs from SW PA (small area of .1+ extreme sw pa) thru about HGR to BWI and into extreme SE MD on other side of bay. .1"+ from MRB to DCA and very tip of SE Md. .25"+ for western/sw VA into western NC. Small .5"+ across southern WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Bona fide storm on the GFS at 180-192...but......its 180-192 Wash, rinse, repeat......the story of the La Nina winter. We can barely get a clipper to perform for us, I highly doubt we will see a monster coastal the GFS is showing without some sort of amplification in the flow across the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wash, rinse, repeat......the story of the La Nina winter. We can barely get a clipper to perform for us, I highly doubt we will see a monster coastal the GFS is showing without some sort of amplification in the flow across the lower 48. The winter is 2 weeks old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro looks even further ots i think .. still zilch n of nc/va border thru 72, It doesn't much like the gfs storm either as if that or the GFS 200 plus or so hour storm matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.