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12z Model Thread - 12/17/10


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It's trying post 168 hour, but how realistic is that. We'll likely get warmer as we get closer.

i think we will have enough cold left around. The euro shows a pretty good snowstorm for us on Christmas day as well...but if it cant nail a storm 2 days away, how much confidence do we have in the christmas forecast. What helps the christmas event is there is much more energy in the stj

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did the 12z gfs ensembles come out yet? I'm curious to see how strongly they support the op and if if the gfs should even be considered.

Here's what supports the 12Z GFS: 00Z Euro/Canadian, 12Z NAM/GFS/Ukmet. I'd say it might be on to something.

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I'm holding on to one last strand of hope for the 12z Euro...

even if showed a massive hit how could another see saw run be trusted? especially when it has no support from any other models. I still see the door being left open a crack on some of the models if certain features were to become more aligned but when your forecasting you need to stick with the general model consensus and like it or not, for the past several days its been OTS or a very glancing blow to SENE

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Stick a fork in the weekend storm guys, theres no point in even talking about it anymore unless you live in far eastern NE....Now the Xmas storm should be a bit easier to handle for the models, its a west to east system, its time to shift the focus to that if one wants something other than a basic clipper.

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no warm up in the long range...

As the block fades (and the AO- regime is forecast to bottom out shortly and then fade, probably ending during the first week in January +/- a few days), I suspect that will change.

FWIW, here are the mean high and low temperatures for DCA during AO- regimes in January when the ENSO 3.4 anomaly was -1.0 or below:

AO:

-3 or below: Mean high: 41.0; Mean low: 25.5

-2.99 to -1.00: Mean high: 43.5; Mean low: 28.9

-0.99 to 0: Mean high: 45.2; Mean low: 30.0

0 to +0.99: Mean high: 48.1; Mean low: 31.7

A similar outcome should be expected with respect to IAD. Hence, barring a resurgence of severe blocking, a milder regime looks quite likely for January.

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