EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Anybody for a lake cutter on Christmas day? http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06168.gif Doesn't cut to the lakes, another west/east moving system here. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, the clipper at 72 is looking healthy...time to move on to that as our tracking hope the s/w in the rockies should destroy us on Chrismtas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It dies at hour 96 or so. Crumbles right before it gets to us....much like this winter. At least we had last year to carry us through. if we get 57 1 inch clippers this winter, we will tie last years record at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What is causing that clipper to die out right before DC? Is that cause of our missed costal not getting out of the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the s/w in the rockies should destroy us on Chrismtas day It's trying post 168 hour, but how realistic is that. We'll likely get warmer as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm flying into DC on xmas day so I don't need a storm there that day... I don't mind a 2 inch clipper or even a 4 inch thump on xmas eve, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It's trying post 168 hour, but how realistic is that. We'll likely get warmer as we get closer. i think we will have enough cold left around. The euro shows a pretty good snowstorm for us on Christmas day as well...but if it cant nail a storm 2 days away, how much confidence do we have in the christmas forecast. What helps the christmas event is there is much more energy in the stj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z GFS backs off on the retrograde precip in the northeast/new england around hours 126 or so as well....doesn't completely get rid of it but definitely greatly diminishes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 All I want for Christmas is ..... this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Bona fide storm on the GFS at 180-192...but......its 180-192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Bona fide storm on the GFS at 180-192...but......its 180-192 this looks almost like an el nino storm. I think we would see better model performance for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It's trying post 168 hour, but how realistic is that. We'll likely get warmer as we get closer. With the lows position at 174. Maybe some snow to ice? And I dont see whats keeping it from cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 if we can consolidate all the energy, it could be special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 With the lows position at 174. Maybe some snow to ice? And I dont see whats keeping it from cutting. It's not phased and still a positive tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 500 vort looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 no warm up in the long range...looks like we keep our foot from the Christmas blizzard into new years day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It's not phased and still a positive tilt. your right. It doesnt go negative until offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 much better ridging in the midwest but no blocking high to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 did the 12z gfs ensembles come out yet? I'm curious to see how strongly they support the op and if if the gfs should even be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 did the 12z gfs ensembles come out yet? I'm curious to see how strongly they support the op and if if the gfs should even be considered. Here's what supports the 12Z GFS: 00Z Euro/Canadian, 12Z NAM/GFS/Ukmet. I'd say it might be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Here's what supports the 12Z GFS: 00Z Euro/Canadian, 12Z NAM/GFS/Ukmet. I'd say it might be on to something. you're forgetting the 0z Rgem, and the off run sref's as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm holding on to one last strand of hope for the 12z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm not refering to the coastal, I'm talking about the clipper & the potential at 190hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm not refering to the coastal, I'm talking about the clipper & the potential at 190hrs. Aah...now that makes much more sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 [quote name='Noreaster85' timestamp='1292606283' post=' I'm not refering to the coastal, I'm talking about the clipper & the potential at 190hrs. Looks pretty healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm holding on to one last strand of hope for the 12z Euro... even if showed a massive hit how could another see saw run be trusted? especially when it has no support from any other models. I still see the door being left open a crack on some of the models if certain features were to become more aligned but when your forecasting you need to stick with the general model consensus and like it or not, for the past several days its been OTS or a very glancing blow to SENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Stick a fork in the weekend storm guys, theres no point in even talking about it anymore unless you live in far eastern NE....Now the Xmas storm should be a bit easier to handle for the models, its a west to east system, its time to shift the focus to that if one wants something other than a basic clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GGEM is hopelessly out to sea for this weekend, Color maps at 72 and 84 look to begin the retrograde as per usual this pattern, congrats Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 no warm up in the long range... As the block fades (and the AO- regime is forecast to bottom out shortly and then fade, probably ending during the first week in January +/- a few days), I suspect that will change. FWIW, here are the mean high and low temperatures for DCA during AO- regimes in January when the ENSO 3.4 anomaly was -1.0 or below: AO: -3 or below: Mean high: 41.0; Mean low: 25.5 -2.99 to -1.00: Mean high: 43.5; Mean low: 28.9 -0.99 to 0: Mean high: 45.2; Mean low: 30.0 0 to +0.99: Mean high: 48.1; Mean low: 31.7 A similar outcome should be expected with respect to IAD. Hence, barring a resurgence of severe blocking, a milder regime looks quite likely for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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